mikem81 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Doesnt look east to me. That's the old run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: Yes correct and SnowGoose69 specified it was west again a little while ago..... The precip field came west it seems but not far enough for the city which only gets about 2-3 inches it looks like. Eastern LI is over 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 GEFS mean shifted slightly West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Pluffmud said: Most of the comments and posts are from the NC folks. I think you might be lost - you're posting in the NYC subforum, which is a little north of NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Seeing some consistency from the experimental Deep Thunder (an IBM/NCAR model that will replace the RPM down the road). NYC sort of on the gradient...the 12Z run spits out 8.9" at NYC but much of Queens and Brooklyn are 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, purduewx80 said: Seeing some consistency from the experimental Deep Thunder (an IBM/NCAR model that will replace the RPM down the road). NYC sort of on the gradient...the 12Z run spits out 8.9" at NYC but much of Queens and Brooklyn are 12+. Please post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I wish people would stop posting things like "ukie looks east" or "ukie looks west" without giving more details as to how much east or west. Is it 10 miles or 100 miles? BTW Ukie does not look any further east than last run from what was posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: Seeing some consistency from the experimental Deep Thunder (an IBM/NCAR model that will replace the RPM down the road). NYC sort of on the gradient...the 12Z run spits out 8.9" at NYC but much of Queens and Brooklyn are 12+. Lock it up. Any idea when it will be implemented? And images please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Model consensus still suggests a near miss overall with the main impacts out on E. LI and New England. However we'll probably see constant adjustments from now until when the storm gets going. Plenty of nowcasting likely too with short term models trends as the storm is ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Posting to get a subscription. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Seeing some consistency from the experimental Deep Thunder (an IBM/NCAR model that will replace the RPM down the road). NYC sort of on the gradient...the 12Z run spits out 8.9" at NYC but much of Queens and Brooklyn are 12+. It will be interesting too see how it performs with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I wish people would stop posting things like "ukie looks east" or "ukie looks west" without giving more details as to how much east or west. Is it 10 miles or 100 miles? BTW Ukie does not look any further east than last run from what was posted. The surface low is a good 75-100 miles WSW of where it was 24 hours ago for the 7 am Thursday timepoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: The surface low is a good 75-100 miles WSW of where it was 24 hours ago for the 7 am Thursday timepoint. Yeah it didn’t move the precip field a whole lot though outside of SNE. The real oddball change was the screw job that occurred vs the prior run QPF wise from ACY down into the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Model consensus still suggests a near miss overall with the main impacts out on E. LI and New England. However we'll probably see constant adjustments from now until when the storm gets going. Plenty of nowcasting likely too with short term models trends as the storm is ongoing. yes, the main impacts will likely be eastern long Island and New England but what do you consider a near miss. Is 3-6 a near miss in your eyes because thats very possible for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, RU848789 said: The surface low is a good 75-100 miles WSW of where it was at 0Z at 48 hours (7 am Thursday). Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Model consensus still suggests a near miss overall with the main impacts out on E. LI and New England. However we'll probably see constant adjustments from now until when the storm gets going. Plenty of nowcasting likely too with short term models trends as the storm is ongoing. And BTW there is still no model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Comparison of the 1/2 0z and 1/2 12z UKMET: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Ukie looks 50-75 miles west to me but my eyes suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Comparison of the 1/2 0z and 1/2 12z UKMET: that is a pretty significant W jump there.... let's see what the EURO has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Comparison of the 1/2 0z and 1/2 12z UKMET: This doesn't confirm what I see but there's definitely more precip than the prior run for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Ukie essentially smoothed out the Precip screw job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Lock it up. Any idea when it will be implemented? And images please unsure. it’s still experimental. i was not impressed during hurricane season and this is our first winter with access, so it remains to be seen how well it will perform. its consistency stands out for the time being. don’t think i’m allowed to post but will try to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 That's a significant shift in the overall QPF on the Ukie but not enough to help those west of central LI and NJ. Great hit for eastern LI and most of central/eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Comparison of the 1/2 0z and 1/2 12z UKMET: The slight reduction of QPF on the western edge could be from the cold/dry air coming down from north to south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 24 minutes ago, RU848789 said: I think you might be lost - you're posting in the NYC subforum, which is a little north of NC... Yep..sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 or more years ago we could toss that because the UKMET was always too far to the east on coastals but it doesn’t generally have that issue anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: The slight reduction of QPF on the western edge could be from the cold/dry air coming down from north to south that will definitely be an issues on the far western edge of the precip-whereever that might end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 5 or more years ago we could toss that because the UKMET was always too far to the east on coastals but it doesn’t generally have that issue anymore Seems like it can also be too far east with big amped up systems like we are seeing now. But for some reason it can lead with weaker systems like Feb 16 and back in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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