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Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

Rjay

By Rjay,
in New York City Metro

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HeadInTheClouds

HeadInTheClouds

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

In the mid-range the CMC and RGEM really nailed this system. I think they were the only ones that had the storm impacting us for a long time. I'll give them kudos for that much. 

Yes they had us getting snow but very light QPF. They had Long Island and Boston getting 3 inches late last night and early today. Only until very recently did QPF increase. 

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Nibor

Nibor

Posted
Posted

No model is better than any other. They all have their limitations and fallacies. Looking at aspects depicted by the models combined with climatology and other experiences and knowledge leads to accurate forecasts. It’s not solely based on ANY model. Computer models are guidance. Not a roulette table you throw money on. 

 

Our mets and knowledgeable posters have far more to give to us than individual models runs. 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Snowberd said:


Lol, we’re starving over here, I’m so autistic that I’m trying to pinpoint Oceanside on the canal to see if we snuck in at the 1.1 qpf level (yellow) I think we just made it in! “yes I’m a pathetic weenie” emoji23.png


.

I think we were right on the eastern edge of the 30 inch totals in Jan 2016.  Oceanside was the furthest east I remember seeing them in the PNS.  That's for the north shore though I do remember a 30 inch total in Hicksville  too.

I'm just glad this won't be a repeat of 2005-06 that was a truly pitiful winter when you compare to what the city got.  They got a 6" snow in December which was all rain for Long Island (even the north shore!) and got 26" in Feb 2006 that we got half those totals (13" in Oceanside) the only time we beat them was that renegade snow band in April when we picked up 2" in like 2 hours during the day and they only got 0.1" (but which got them to 40" on the season and we had a paltry 25" on the season- less than the city got in that one storm in February!)

 

I think double digits will make it as far west as JFK maybe even Manhattan.

 

 

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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Posted
Posted
Just now, Nibor said:

No model is better than any other. They all have their limitations and fallacies. Looking at aspects depicted by the models combined with climatology and other experiences and knowledge leads to accurate forecasts. It’s not solely based on ANY model. Computer models are guidance. Not a roulette table you throw money on. 

 

Our mets and knowledgeable posters have far more to give to us than individual models runs. 

Euro

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It happens more than you would think.  People have short memories.

There's a specific type of system it does really well in (where convection is involved) and I think this its 3rd good outcome this season so maybe since the upgrade it now does better in other circumstances too.

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, tomcatct said:

The decent snowpack we'll have after this will make it even colder later this week..sub zero mornings incoming for some

hopefully for all lol

I want to see double digit snowfall, single digit high and at least -2 low.

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NorthShoreWx

NorthShoreWx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Paragon said:

There's a specific type of system it does really well in (where convection is involved) and I think this its 3rd good outcome this season so maybe since the upgrade it now does better in other circumstances too.

 

It has been my go to model within 36 hours since it was the ETA...and people used to trash talk it then too.  The difference now is that it is often good out to 84.

 

Edit: Not that this egg has hatched yet, but I do like the NAM.  The truth is there are going to be some mesoscale stuff that some of the models may have hinted at, but none will have nailed.  Someone is going to get crushed and that detail really is still somewhat of a mystery.

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It has been my go to model within 36 hours since it was the ETA...and people used to trash talk it then too.  The difference now is that it is often good out to 84.

Yes and I remember how it was ridiculed before even at 48 hours let alone 84 lol.....  First major hit I remember with it was Jan 1996 (along with the Euro, old E/E rule) but it's caught on to quite a few monster storms.

 

 

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NorthShoreWx

NorthShoreWx

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, psv88 said:

What are your thoughts for our areas?

If I had noticed this 9 hours ago I would have said 10".  Now I'm thinking we may be a little higher than that.  This could honestly be better than 12/26/2010 in our neck of the woods.  At least that thought has been creeping around in my head today.

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purduewx80

purduewx80

Posted
Posted

while not perfect, this will be a big win for deep thunder. it over-intensifies lows, as we learned during the hurricane season, and it does have some other major flaws (particularly summertime convection), but i think it has out-performed all the other guidance this round.

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Snowberd

Snowberd

Posted
Posted
I think we were right on the eastern edge of the 30 inch totals in Jan 2016.  Oceanside was the furthest east I remember seeing them in the PNS.  That's for the north shore though I do remember a 30 inch total in Hicksville  too.
I'm just glad this won't be a repeat of 2005-06 that was a truly pitiful winter when you compare to what the city got.  They got a 6" snow in December which was all rain for Long Island (even the north shore!) and got 26" in Feb 2006 that we got half those totals (13" in Oceanside) the only time we beat them was that renegade snow band in April when we picked up 2" in like 2 hours during the day and they only got 0.1" (but which got them to 40" on the season and we had a paltry 25" on the season- less than the city got in that one storm in February!)
 
I think double digits will make it as far west as JFK maybe even Manhattan.
 
 

Impressed with your historic knowledge. Can you offer an meteorological explanation as to why it’s almost a constant that this particular part of the island gets shafted so much?


.
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MANDA

MANDA

Posted
Posted

Latest goes IR is amazing.

You can clearly see the LLC and at least as of now it is tracking just east of due north.

Tapping moisture from near Panama!

IR link:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-14-96-1-50

WV link:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northernhemi-08-96-1-50

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Snowberd said:


Impressed with your historic knowledge. Can you offer an meteorological explanation as to why it’s almost a constant that this particular part of the island gets shafted so much?


.

Thanks...I've asked myself and others that many times lol.

From what I can tell, being close to the ocean promotes a certain level of stability and that kills convection just like it does with thunderstorms.  Convective snow bands are an important part of winter snowstorms (unless you're dealing with SWFE events, but in those we often change over first, so you can't win either way lol.)

The other thing is if you're going to be near the ocean at least be further east so you can be closer to where the bombing out Miller B's are.

We're kind of in a dead zone, worst of all possible worlds.

 

We often do best when the mix line gets close to us but never makes it here- this was the case with Jan 2016.  We were in an ideal location between colder, much drier air just to our north, and the mix line just to our south.

 

Also, with the exception of Jan 1996, all the 20+ inch storms I've seen in this area have come in moderate to strong el ninos.

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RedSky

RedSky

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

while not perfect, this will be a big win for deep thunder. it over-intensifies lows, as we learned during the hurricane season, and it does have some other major flaws (particularly summertime convection), but i think it has out-performed all the other guidance this round.

We should petition IBM to change the name to Thor

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

If I had noticed this 9 hours ago I would have said 10".  Now I'm thinking we may be a little higher than that.  This could honestly be better than 12/26/2010 in our neck of the woods.  At least that thought has been creeping around in my head today.

That was  a little over a foot there, I think?  If the winds are near that intensity, it'll be amazing.

High winds and drifts are an underrated aspect of the "snowstorm experience."

 

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