Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: south fork/montauk may mix. it's 36F there now. That would be a sure sign of the storm coming further west than any model showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 What a fail by Global’s.....anyone talking Nam shi* should get auto banned in future, another great catch by Nam, that’s 3 this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowberd Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 This seems to happen a lot with these models (including the Euro) and yet people still go by their output without remembering how many times they were wrong and what the margin of error was. Sometimes I feel like we need a "cone of uncertainty" with these storms too.Well we already have an eye so why not? Also I’m cautiously hopeful that western south shore nassau county breaks its usual snow hole curse . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro caves the NAM is king Never thought I'd see the day when the N.A.M. would lead the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro caves the NAM is king The King is dead- all hail the King! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: RAP still has decent snow around the city until around 3pm, 5pm out east. This is good news I hate it when the snow ends quickly and the sun just comes out. It can clear out at night lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Precip maps once the storm wraps up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Mix line gets close to the eastern tip of LI right there. Block Island which is under a blizzard warning would definitely mix as would extreme SE NE east of the Cape Cod canal. Nantucket was rain on that first frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Sorry too excited since I went from flakes to 7" lol in 2 hours...u can take down euro, or let me post the weenie map..ur choice mods lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Matches the UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Mophstymeo said: Never thought I'd see the day when the N.A.M. would lead the way. circa Jan 2016.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Euro last to join the party with extra juicy totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snowberd said: Well we already have an eye so why not? Also I’m cautiously hopeful that western south shore nassau county breaks its usual snow hole curse . Yes! The last time it was broken was Jan 2016 which was also a big win by the NAM when we got 30+! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Upton may need to expand the warnings north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I’m running for the Hill with my 4-6..I’d expect totals flr interior to go up as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I'm laughing how the long range NAM nailed this lmao. It's been really awesome the past year since it's recent upgrades. The CMC was consistent too. The EURO and Goofus were horrible and the HRRR is a joke. I'll remember this. The new HRDPS is pretty great too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 How reliable is the Ukie this close to the event and what does this latest set of events do to the totals North n West ? Guesstimates ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Paragon said: circa Jan 2016.... True. That was pretty epic. My general rule, though, is not to get too happy until I'm watching it fall to the ground. I can't crown the new king just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 My final call looks to have been too paltry. This is looking now like 8-10+ for all from the city east and 12+ in a good number of spots. Generous inland too, maybe 6+ to I-287. And the radar just south looks like it's cocking a fist to slam right into us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: Wow with 10:1 ratios double digit totals very close to JFK....with 15:1 ratios a foot in lower Manhattan! Has double digits to Newark with 15:1 ratios. 12+ eastern LI with 10:1 ratios close to 20" there with 15:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I'm laughing how the long range NAM nailed this lmao. It's been really awesome the past year since it's recent upgrades. The CMC was consistent too. The EURO and Goofus were horrible and the HRRR is a joke. I'll remember this. The new HRDPS is pretty great too. The HRDPS is just hi res RGEM...always been around, it’s just new on tidbits..always had on wxbell...it’s basically 2.5k resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I'm laughing how the long range NAM nailed this lmao. It's been really awesome the past year since it's recent upgrades. The CMC was consistent too. The EURO and Goofus were horrible and the HRRR is a joke. I'll remember this. The new HRDPS is pretty great too. Yes we must bookmark this for future memory and for the trolls that come out from their holes to model hug "the usual suspects" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I'm laughing how the long range NAM nailed this lmao. It's been really awesome the past year since it's recent upgrades. The CMC was consistent too. The EURO and Goofus were horrible and the HRRR is a joke. I'll remember this. The new HRDPS is pretty great too. People sh*t on the nam but it has been good. The CMC I thought was just as horrific as the other globals. Its QPF output was a joke until 00z run basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro caves the NAM is king ...or is it King Tropic Thunder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: People sh*t on the nam but it has been good. The CMC I thought was just as horrific as the other globals. Its QPF output was a joke until 00z run basically. In the mid-range the CMC and RGEM really nailed this system. I think they were the only ones that had the storm impacting us for a long time. I'll give them kudos for that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowberd Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Yes! The last time it was broken was Jan 2016 which was also a big win by the NAM when we got 30+!Lol, we’re starving over here, I’m so autistic that I’m trying to pinpoint Oceanside on the canal to see if we snuck in at the 1.1 qpf level (yellow) I think we just made it in! “yes I’m a pathetic weenie” . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The HRDPS is just hi res RGEM...always been around, it’s just new on tidbits..always had on wxbell...it’s basically 2.5k resolution Yeah I wasn't aware of it till they added it. I like it though. I think it will be a reliable tool for more people going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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