Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I would shocked if there wasn't a decent surge. It's a sub 950 mb low that means business. I'd kill to be down the shore for this storm. My house down Long Beach Island, NJ is gonna get smoked with Blizzard Conditions and probably 10-15". The UKIE, HDRPS, and NAM rakes the shore points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, sferic said: Without the kicker does the storm hang around a little longer or just come closer with more qpf or both? just comes closer. the surface low is clearly moving n/ne on mhx radar. the "kicker" vort is wrapping into the southwest side of the system, which should help maintain the more northerly than easterly direction several more hours. would not be at all surprised to see this end up over or just inside the benchmark tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 HRRR is picking up quite a bit as well, last run has 0.75" liquid to Manhattan almost, and some 1.0" speckles across Long Island. Unfortunately it comes with a sharp dropoff west of 95 but it's been slowly backing west. The satellite and radar is something amazing to behold. We're in for a show in the late morning city and coast. Worst appears to be 7am to noon, but HRRR has snow still east of the city at the end of its run at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, ZNSTATED said: Shirley light snow 28 degrees 78% humidity moving in fast Game on Grayson dont disappoint me lol Wow it's a few hours ahead of schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I would shocked if there wasn't a decent surge. It's a sub 950 mb low that means business. I'd kill to be down the shore for this storm. My house down Long Beach Island, NJ is gonna get smoked with Blizzard Conditions and probably 10-15". The UKIE, HDRPS, and NAM rakes the shore points. Down here in Atlantic County. Currently getting hammered pretty good. An inch or 2 already on the ground. Winds picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, purduewx80 said: just comes closer. the surface low is clearly moving n/ne on mhx radar. the "kicker" vort is wrapping into the southwest side of the system, which should help maintain the more northerly than easterly direction several more hours. would not be at all surprised to see this end up over or just inside the benchmark tomorrow. Is the better output on the models them finally realizing the good upper air support that's been around for some time or west jogs or both? Seems more the former to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: What? Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I would shocked if there wasn't a decent surge. It's a sub 950 mb low that means business. I'd kill to be down the shore for this storm. My house down Long Beach Island, NJ is gonna get smoked with Blizzard Conditions and probably 10-15". The UKIE, HDRPS, and NAM rakes the shore points. Lee Goldberg mentioned another issue. He said that because our coastal waterways have ice, there's a danger that ice could come in and damage docks and boats that are moored on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, RUMG11 said: Down here in Atlantic County. Currently getting hammered prettt good. An inch or 2 already on the ground. Winds picking up. Take a video for the board please when the worst comes through later on. I imagine this will be a fun one for you. I'd honestly expect 10-15" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Take a video for the board please when the worst comes through later on. I imagine this will be a fun one for you. I'd honestly expect 10-15" there. I want to see the ice come in on the docks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Take a video for the board please when the worst comes through later on. I imagine this will be a fun one for you. I'd honestly expect 10-15" there. Will do. Ill be awake at 5:30 checking to see if work closed. Doubt ill make it in anyway. Were expecting some pretty decent surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, Paragon said: I want to see the ice come in on the docks! Inter coastal water way is frozen and the snow is accumulating on top. Its an awesome site to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 NYC area should be snowing pretty good within the next couple of hours. Some mean banding is showing up not far south now, getting into Ocean County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Is the better output on the models them finally realizing the good upper air support that's been around for some time or west jogs or both? Seems more the former to me. that's part of it. the main issue has been convective feedback, with poorly modeled convection on just about all the guidance. they're all initializing the surface low position incorrectly because of that, and then it feeds back later in the run. with the surface low north/west of where models think it should be now, it is in a much better place to get "caught" rather than kicked out to the ENE as some have been speculating for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Bright banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: that's part of it. the main issue has been convective feedback, with poorly modeled convection on just about all the guidance. they're all initializing the surface low position incorrectly because of that, and then it feeds back later in the run. with the surface low north/west of where models think it should be now, it is in a much better place to get "caught" rather than kicked out to the ENE have some have been speculating for days. Thank you for your input. It’s much appreciated from not only me but many on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Bright banding. Not the point. The circular convection is around the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: NYC area should be snowing pretty good within the next couple of hours. Some mean banding is showing up not far south now, getting into Ocean County. lol we weren't supposed to start snowing until 4 am. I hope it's not a case of earlier arrival earlier departure. I want it to snow until 2 pm at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: that's part of it. the main issue has been convective feedback, with poorly modeled convection on just about all the guidance. they're all initializing the surface low position incorrectly because of that, and then it feeds back later in the run. with the surface low north/west of where models think it should be now, it is in a much better place to get "caught" rather than kicked out to the ENE have some have been speculating for days. Any chance it could stay too far west and LI mixes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Nibor said: Thank you for your input. It’s much appreciated from not only me but many on here. What he said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, Ja643y said: Any chance it could stay too far west and LI mixes? I want the mix line to get it as close as it possibly can, the best snows are close to where the mix line is. We have zero danger of mixing so I hope it just keeps coming further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Paragon said: lol we weren't supposed to start snowing until 4 am. I hope it's not a case of earlier arrival earlier departure. I want it to snow until 2 pm at least. Wouldn't be surprised, she's a screamer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: that's part of it. the main issue has been convective feedback, with poorly modeled convection on just about all the guidance. they're all initializing the surface low position incorrectly because of that, and then it feeds back later in the run. with the surface low north/west of where models think it should be now, it is in a much better place to get "caught" rather than kicked out to the ENE have some have been speculating for days. This seems to happen a lot with these models (including the Euro) and yet people still go by their output without remembering how many times they were wrong and what the margin of error was. Sometimes I feel like we need a "cone of uncertainty" with these storms too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Light snow here. Got a quick light dusting on the street. The temp was 18 with the moon fuzzy and dimmed through the thin clouds about 4 hours ago, but it is up to 28 now. That moon looked really cool, but no halo here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Absolutely. Thanks mets for the discussions and quality added to the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ja643y said: Any chance it could stay too far west and LI mixes? south fork/montauk may mix. it's 36F there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Paragon said: This seems to happen a lot with these models (including the Euro) and yet people still go by their output without remembering how many times they were wrong and what the margin of error was. Sometimes I feel like we need a "cone of uncertainty" with these storms too. There were always different scenarios laid out with the low track and uncertainty communicated. This is just the kind of thing that can cause havoc with a 50 mile track shift or some better upper air dynamics as we're seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Euro caves the NAM is king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 RAP still has decent snow around the city until around 3pm, 5pm out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Absolutely. Thanks mets for the discussions and quality added to the forum. This ×1000. It's been a long time and it's much appreciated. Thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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