Hoth Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, tomcatct said: Who ever is under those death bands is gonna jackpot.. Well yeah, obviously lol. But I mean in place major systems, Nemo, Juno, '16, last March, the models tend to pump out some juicy numbers: 2, 2.5, 3" QPF. It just seems odd to me to have this exceptionally deep low tapping a lot of tropical moisture and even out around eastern NE the models can't seem to get that high. I dunno, maybe it's the seclusion or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Imagine what could have been if this thing was crawling up the coast. That’s the only thing that’s stoping record snows. The track is pretty ideal for coastal areas Yes that's the only limiting factor here. At least the heaviest snows will be during the day- great for pics and videos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 The moderators can choose to delete this post if they want. But I wanted to just share my observations as a weather enthusiast who loves snow and has lived through some great storms. So, I am excited just like you all are about the prospects of this storm. I appreciate all that you all share and have learned a lot from your posts. I cannot give the scientific analysis that you all give but just going outside right now and seeing what is happening I think that we are going to have a nice storm. There is a beautiful moon bow happening right now and it smells like snow and there is the muffle of sound that comes before a storm. I think this storm may be quite impressive. I don' t think up here in northern westchester we are going to have amazing snow totals, but it will be powerful. I hope all enjoy this storm and there are no power outages and damage from it. Especially with the extreme cold coming after the storm. Enjoy! Mother nature is awesome to watch and I enjoy watching and learning from you all as we witness it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: My memory is a little short of stellar but I've noticed in the past that models rarely seem to drastically under-forecast peak liquid in big coastals. More specific to this system, the rapid movement is the biggest limiting factor... on the 3km NAM, the low center travels more than 550 miles between 12z Thursday and 00z Friday. Any location should struggle to see precip for significantly longer than a 12-hour period. True, but speaking simply from personal experience I can say I've put up some big totals in short duration storms. I did 27" in Jan '11 and that storm snowed for maybe 10 hours. Did 14" last January and that system was in and out in probably 6-7. Obviously whoever gets the banding takes the spoils, but I still would think generally there would be more juice. I'm just wondering if this thing wrings out the majority of it off Delmarva while it's undergoing max intensification and we get left with what's left. Again, I could be totally out in left field. I just think it's curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: blizzard warnings may need to be expanded into bk/qns given the expected closer track. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, Hoth said: Well yeah, obviously lol. But I mean in place major systems, Nemo, Juno, '16, last March, the models tend to pump out some juicy numbers: 2, 2.5, 3" QPF. It just seems odd to me to have this exceptionally deep low tapping a lot of tropical moisture and even out around eastern NE the models can't seem to get that high. I dunno, maybe it's the seclusion or something... Although this thing is moving, we can get some serious totals in a short period of time if it's whiteout snows..happened a few years back in our neck of the woods..had 36" here and up by you in hamden they had like 40 or so...i fell asleep early and missed the real heavy stuff that night//// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, viking70 said: The moderators can choose to delete this post if they want. But I wanted to just share my observations as a weather enthusiast who loves snow and has lived through some great storms. So, I am excited just like you all are about the prospects of this storm. I appreciate all that you all share and have learned a lot from your posts. I cannot give the scientific analysis that you all give but just going outside right now and seeing what is happening I think that we are going to have a nice storm. There is a beautiful moon bow happening right now and it smells like snow and there is the muffle of sound that comes before a storm. I think this storm may be quite impressive. I don' t think up here in northern westchester we are going to have amazing snow totals, but it will be powerful. I hope all enjoy this storm and there are no power outages and damage from it. Especially with the extreme cold coming after the storm. Enjoy! Mother nature is awesome to watch and I enjoy watching and learning from you all as we witness it. Moon bow?! Where? Those are extraordinarily rare.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 Love my gem-lam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, tomcatct said: Although this think is moving, we can get some serious totals in a short period of time if it's whiteout snows..happened a few years back in our neck of the woods..had 36" here and up by you in hamden they had like 40 or so...i fell asleep early and missed the real heavy stuff that night//// I was up in Boston at the time. The only time in my life when I've scored nearly 30" and been jealous of not being elsewhere. My folks in Hamden had a brief period of hail mixed in with that 6" per hr death band! Thankfully I got to experience Feb '15 in all its incomparable magnificence though. Anyway, I digress, and will let you all get back on track. Good luck everyone. I think this thing will have some positive surprises in your hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Big Jims Videos said: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-10-48-0-100 I'm in awe. Just stupid geeked out awe. Great outflow on the west side. Some dry air entrained in to the SE but it looks like new convection trying to wrap around the center. What pressure did the hunter find? What is the T score? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, tomcatct said: Although this think is moving, we can get some serious totals in a short period of time if it's whiteout snows..happened a few years back in our neck of the woods..had 36" here and up by you in hamden they had like 40 or so...i fell asleep early and missed the real heavy stuff that night//// and that's why I don't like night time snowstorms not the best for pics/videos either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Ukmet looks pretty good I think, can’t see precip yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: and that's why I don't like night time snowstorms not the best for pics/videos either. Right on with that..tomorrow morning should be great..good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 PB FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 Ukie!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 DIX radar returns not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, tomcatct said: Right on with that..tomorrow morning should be great..good luck! You too! DOUBLE DIGITS FOR ALL OF US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 Wow Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: Wow Ukie lol the Sandy-esque extreme outcome from a few days ago won't end up being too far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 That ukie is in a perfect spot as far as i can tell..wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Wow Ukie Wayyy west of previous runs correct? Looks like it spits out over 1" of LE I-95 east to my untrained eyes. That's 8-12"+ with ratios if I got that right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Can anything slow this monster down even a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 Ukie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 From Twitter...our trough is digging deeper then expected...our "kicker" is diving under our storm instead of into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 HRRR totals going up too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Certainly has the feel of Jan. 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: HRRR totals going up too The HRRR has been garbage with this system. I'm not even paying attention to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: From Twitter...our trough is digging deeper then expected...our "kicker" is diving under our storm instead of into it Do you have a link to the thread on Twitter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 The powerful jet streak that has been modeled consistently is beginning to take shape over the NE. Huge amounts of lift are created due to the right entrance region of the jet streak, leading to enhanced precipitation and rapid deepening of the LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Enigma said: Certainly has the feel of Jan. 2000. Yup. Been saying that for days. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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