SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Things on the NAM shut down by me pretty quickly around noon, last a good bit longer your way. And yeah, that grey area would have several inch per hour rates in spots probably. Heaviest snow for the Metro is likely 8am - noon with a quick drop off thereafter. There may be a period overnight where it’s moderate for a time but I mid to late morning is the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Hi res RGEM WILL be 1' for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Almost and inch of liquid into Queens/Nassau border by 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Almost and inch of liquid into Queens/Nassau border by 18Z How accurate is this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 City on east is gonna do real well...10-15 plus if that hi res is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 36 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Potential is there. We did 32 inches on Boxing Day and that was mostly a coastal event; areas 30 miles to my west had only a few inches. Other times the storms skip just south of us and head east. Or rather the best bands do.... What did you get in Jan 2016? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Pretty good improvement on the hi Res RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Paragon said: What did you get in Jan 2016? don't remember, but it was a lot....20-24 inches, who's counting at that point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I don't think dry air will be much of an issue at all around the city and points east. Looks to be a nice band already developing around ACY that will climb north. GFS already has a couple of inches by me and into parts of the city at 4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I mean, even NW folks should be intrigued at the trends on most guidance so far. It won't be an all out blizzard there but it won't take much for 6" to get west of the city in a lucky band or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I guess if we're still doing model runs, how's the Ukie looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 What areas stand the best chance for thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: I mean, even NW folks should be intrigued at the trends on most guidance so far. It won't be an all out blizzard there but it won't take much for 6" to get west of the city in a lucky band or two. Depending on how things play out I feel like I could end with 2” or as high as 8”. No clue what will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Anyone else think all these models are still underdoing QPF? I mean, unless this is occluding and skunked out, I have a hard time believing it will only put down .75-1.25 in a lot of places. That little fast hitter last winter dumped 14-17" over a fairly wide area and it was decidedly not a 950s bomb out of the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Imagine what could have been if this thing was crawling up the coast. That’s the only thing that’s stoping record snows. The track is pretty ideal for coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, sferic said: What areas stand the best chance for thundersnow? long island and southern new england. lapse rates look real nice above those fronto bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Anyone else think all these models are still underdoing QPF? I mean, unless this is occluding and skunked out, I have a hard time believing it will only put down .75-1.25 in a lot of places. That little fast hitter last winter dumped 14-17" over a fairly wide area and it was decidedly not a 950s bomb out of the Bahamas. Who ever is under those death bands is gonna jackpot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 My God. Destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 blizzard warnings may need to be expanded into bk/qns given the expected closer track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I mean, even NW folks should be intrigued at the trends on most guidance so far. It won't be an all out blizzard there but it won't take much for 6" to get west of the city in a lucky band or two. Especially with the ratios in HV expected to be close to 20:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: Especially with the ratios in HV expected to be close to 20:1. A Band always finds its way west of modeled.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 28 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Things on the NAM shut down by me pretty quickly around noon, last a good bit longer your way. And yeah, that grey area would have several inch per hour rates in spots probably. I think we have a very decent chance of double digit totals here. Lee Goldberg has us in 9-12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ace said: Pretty good improvement on the hi Res RGEM. Great news. CNJ gets crushed and the drastic cutoff gets pushed way NW. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I mean, even NW folks should be intrigued at the trends on most guidance so far. It won't be an all out blizzard there but it won't take much for 6" to get west of the city in a lucky band or two. Think JFK verifies blizzard conditions? I would say yes- they are usually the windiest location in the area lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, Hoth said: Anyone else think all these models are still underdoing QPF? I mean, unless this is occluding and skunked out, I have a hard time believing it will only put down .75-1.25 in a lot of places. That little fast hitter last winter dumped 14-17" over a fairly wide area and it was decidedly not a 950s bomb out of the Bahamas. My memory is a little short of stellar but I've noticed in the past that models rarely seem to drastically under-forecast peak liquid in big coastals. More specific to this system, the rapid movement is the biggest limiting factor... on the 3km NAM, the low center travels more than 550 miles between 12z Thursday and 00z Friday. Any location should struggle to see precip for significantly longer than a 12-hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Maybe Srefs weren’t so crazy...they always had swf at about .3-.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: blizzard warnings may need to be expanded into bk/qns given the expected closer track. I think JFK will verify blizzard conditions based on how strong the winds there are, double digit snowfall totals too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: My God. Destruction. The low didn't move much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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