Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 GFS pretty juiced. Warning snows are obvious for city now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Sounds good. Only caveat, southern SI and NJ towns just across the Arthur Kill could go a little higher IMO, or not.....potential is there and they have sometimes cashed in on the shore storms at times. But that's just my inner weenie talking.... SI belongs in the same grouping as central NJ and the south shores of Brooklyn, Queens and Nassau. I'd go slightly higher to 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: There is strong 850mb moisture transport straight onto the EC which is partly responsible for snow farther N over the DelMarVa. Not sure why radar isn't coming up here, but there are returns over DE and far SNJ. Yes def coming down in AC http://thesurfersview.com/live-beach-cams/...y/atlantic-city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Fwiw GFS and RAP west a smidge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: SI belongs in the same grouping as central NJ and the south shores of Brooklyn, Queens and Nassau. I'd go slightly higher to 8-12" Potential is there. We did 32 inches on Boxing Day and that was mostly a coastal event; areas 30 miles to my west had only a few inches. Other times the storms skip just south of us and head east. Or rather the best bands do.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 GFS is around 10 inches for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: GFS pretty juiced. Warning snows are obvious for city now. It only took the GFS 6 hours before it snows to catch on. POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 00z GFS looks better. 2”+ line back to the DE river now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Wow, GFS ticked up from my area east. 1” liquid gets to FRG and over 1.25” in much of Suffolk. Someone there might pull off 15”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It only took the GFS 6 hours before it snows to catch on. POS. GFS has been trending better all day, this wasn’t sudden in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Wow, GFS ticked up from my area east. 1” liquid gets to FRG and over 1.25” in much of Suffolk. Someone there might pull off 15”. GFS is rarely the wettest model out of the bunch LI is going to get crushed tomorrow Safe to say that NYC gets 6-10 inches and LI over 12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: GFS is rarely the wettest model out of the bunch LI is going to get crushed tomorrow Safe to say that NYC gets 6-10 inches and LI over 12 inches. Its never safe to say anything like that. You should know better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: GFS has been trending better all day, this wasn’t sudden in one run. GFS is a piece of garbage model and is always the last to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 That awkward moment when it's January But there's a pseudo eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: GFS pretty juiced. Warning snows are obvious for city now. wow at the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Wow, GFS ticked up from my area east. 1” liquid gets to FRG and over 1.25” in much of Suffolk. Someone there might pull off 15”. That’s a major improvement for most of the area. Getting the precip shield further inland this run really helps the city on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Nam ftw... 1 rougue run and poor surface depiction doesn’t make it a bad model.. if you know how to look past it’s biases like bad surface reflection and overdoing QPF.. 500 on the nam will likely be spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 0z Canadian is pretty sizable shift NW with the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Based on latest satellite/radar imagery, I'm fairly confident no 00Z guidance has caught on to how far N and W this is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Does anyone have bufkit numbers? Anyone know the temps at different levels of the column - snow growth region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Looking at 850 and 700 the best chance for a significant band to develop may be from SW CT down through NYC and SI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: That’s just an absolutely laughable performance by the GGEM. Reminds me of the Euro finally caving off the Grand Canyon last second with Juno in Jan 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I'm amazed that the models have trended stronger with this storm, usually it's the opposite as we get closer. We could see a sub 950 mb low at our latitude, that's incredible. I'm glad to see the Canadian finally jump on board, not like it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Based on latest satellite/radar imagery, I'm fairly confident no 00Z guidance has caught on to how far N and W this is coming. Agreed, Interested to see where the really nice VV’s set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: From 3" to over a foot in some cases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I think whats so clearly evident here is the lack of that weird hard right turn that caused such low QPF across much of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Wow, GFS ticked up from my area east. 1” liquid gets to FRG and over 1.25” in much of Suffolk. Someone there might pull off 15”. This is from the 00z Nam, this would be absolutely nuts out here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: This is from the 00z Nam, this would be absolutely nuts out here... Things on the NAM shut down by me pretty quickly around noon, last a good bit longer your way. And yeah, that grey area would have several inch per hour rates in spots probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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