USCG RS Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 My sister says its been snowing west of Raleigh. Tbh, I really believe the models are having issues letting go of this warm core scenario. Warm cores produce precipitation via latent heat release. At northern latitudes, obviously, this does not happen. The models are, for some reason, not seeing the baroclinicity side of this and therefore limiting any precip that can be expanded on the western side. A sub 960mb storm off of the delmarva coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 My sister says its been snowing west of Raleigh. Tbh, I really believe the models are having issues letting go of this warm core scenario. Warm cores produce precipitation via latent heat release. At northern latitudes, obviously, this does not happen. The models are, for some reason, not seeing the baroclinicity side of this and therefore limiting any precip that can be expanded on the western side. A sub 960mb storm off of the delmarva coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 RGEM appears wetter from previous runs on black and white maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, USCG RS said: https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Completelydifferent than depiction at this time on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Somehow that 3k run translated to 7" in OC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 0Z RGEM track looks improved on the nice color radar simulation. Tracks almost over the BM... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: RGEM appears wetter from previous runs on black and white maps. So far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: My sister says its been snowing west of Raleigh. Tbh, I really believe the models are having issues letting go of this warm core scenario. Warm cores produce precipitation via latent heat release. At northern latitudes, obviously, this does not happen. The models are, for some reason, not seeing the baroclinicity side of this and therefore limiting any precip that can be expanded on the western side. A sub 960mb storm off of the delmarva coast... It looks to be keeping more west for how long, is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 .25 QPF in NYC by 12Z on the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Somehow that 3k run translated to 7" in OC lol Thats why you should just chill with the dry air stuff. We are going to get a few inches adding to our snowpack and maybe more next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Initialization looked more accurate than the NAM FWIW albeit drier than radar appears in the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Thats why you should just chill with the dry air stuff. We are going to get a few inches adding to our snowpack and maybe more next week. 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Thats why you should just chill with the dry air stuff. We are going to get a few inches adding to our snowpack and maybe more next week. Ooooook lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: .25 QPF in NYC by 12Z on the RGEM Around .50QPF in total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 snowing in wildwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: 3-6/4-8 Similiar to the Nam Lets see what the GFS shows but the models don't mean a lot at this point. Consesus is for 3-6/4-8 for NYC but that might be more or even less depending on how far out the precip extends and where the bands sets up. Tomorrow should be an interesting day. I have to work outside in it so I am looking forward to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 first meso band appearing inland of Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Nice band over Hudson Valley RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I'm not sure why people are looking at most of these models while the storm is ongoing considering they've already busted pretty badly for a lot of places. Models will probably be playing catch-up throughout and radar trends suggest things will end up further west. Trends reminiscent of last year's March storm, which ultimately ended up too far west for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Initialization looked more accurate than the NAM FWIW albeit drier than radar appears in the Delmarva. Every time I look at model depictions of this storm it looks like a tropical system. What an absolute monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 RAP is pretty much the good model... maybe the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I'm not sure why people are looking at most of these models while the storm is ongoing considering they've already busted pretty badly for a lot of places. Models will probably be playing catch-up throughout and radar trends suggest things will end up further west. Even a few pros are saying that. It's not a historic monster, but it is a wicked storm. I wouldn't go out in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 The NAMs initialized much too strong with the LP and with a terrible representation of actual conditions across the NE. The 12km NAM is about 10mb too strong, and 3km has nearly double the error. They don’t even have precipitation into Virginia at this time period; however, it is currently snowing heavily in Cape May. You can’t take a model seriously when it initializes so poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nice band over Hudson Valley RGEM It's probably just virga. Feel better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 21 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Somehow that 3k run translated to 7" in OC lol Many of these so called fringe storms wind up that way in the Eastern hills. I expected this one to be no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Final call: 2" or less for Sussex, Warren, western Orange County, northern Lehigh Valley 2-5" for 25 miles or more northwest of I-95, Rockland County, Putnam, eastern Orange County 5-7" for most of NYC (where there's about 0.5" liquid on most models now), Westchester, Fairfield County CT, SW along I-95 to just east of Trenton 7-10" for southeastern Queens and Nassau, western 1/3 of Suffolk as well as NJ shore (NAM, GFS, UKMET have upwards of 0.75"+ liquid here and RGEM just got wetter/further west), central CT 10-13" for central and eastern Suffolk, eastern CT, where models have in some cases over 1" liquid and banding looks to be strongest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 29 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 43 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: My sister says its been snowing west of Raleigh. Tbh, I really believe the models are having issues letting go of this warm core scenario. Warm cores produce precipitation via latent heat release. At northern latitudes, obviously, this does not happen. The models are, for some reason, not seeing the baroclinicity side of this and therefore limiting any precip that can be expanded on the western side. A sub 960mb storm off of the delmarva coast... I think it's awesome that the rain/snow line is staying close to the coast. Cape Cod and SE NE wont be the jackpot area from this storm, they're going to get mixed precip or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Final call: 2" or less for Sussex, Warren, western Orange County, northern Lehigh Valley 2-5" for 25 miles or more northwest of I-95, Rockland County, Putnam, eastern Orange County 5-7" for most of NYC (where there's about 0.5" liquid on most models now), Westchester, Fairfield County CT, SW along I-95 to just east of Trenton 7-10" for southeastern Queens and Nassau, western 1/3 of Suffolk as well as NJ shore (NAM, GFS, UKMET have upwards of 0.75"+ liquid here and RGEM just got wetter/further west), central CT 10-13" for central and eastern Suffolk, eastern CT, where models have in some cases over 1" liquid and banding looks to be strongest Sounds good. Only caveat, southern SI and NJ towns just across the Arthur Kill could go a little higher IMO, or not.....potential is there and they have sometimes cashed in on the shore storms at times. But that's just my inner weenie talking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 There is strong 850mb moisture transport straight onto the EC which is partly responsible for snow farther N over the DelMarVa. Not sure why radar isn't coming up here, but there are returns over DE and far SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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