Drz1111 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: There is going to be a very sharp cutoff northwest of the city and I mean real sharp. That incredibly dry air at mid and low levels depicted in that graphic posted is very telling plus there is going to be strong confluence at 700mb NW of the city. Subsidence and dry air are going to be a big issue west of the city. The new LR HRRR is showing this. I can see a virga fest for a long time and a bust coming Ain’t a bust if you’re on the wet side of the 700mb frontogenesis with tons of csi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Ain’t a bust if you’re on the wet side of the 700mb frontogenesis with tons of csi. Excellent post looks like for a lot of peeps esp on the eastern half of nj we can get into a monster deform band with great forcing. Some people just continue to look at the surface though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: He is relentless. Watched him for years nitpick any little negative thing that would give less snow or cold when it came to winter storms and honestly most of time he was way wrong. Not saying that's the case here but the track record speaks for itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said: He is relentless. Lol funny. If you’re over 25 miles northwest of the city, the chances of a bust are very high. I’m not arguing it, but you’ll see for yourself tomorrow. The dry air, 700mb confluence and subsidence means business in that area. This has virga fest for several hours before saturation written all over it in that area. You are going to waste QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I actually went to his discussion and he seems to agree with some of the red taggers here; it was a good discussion basically calls for 4-8 in eastern NJ but says there will be areas where bands may set up delivering more. Worth a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-10-48-0-100 I'm in awe. Just stupid geeked out awe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-10-48-0-100 I'm in awe. Just stupid geeked out awe. Regardless of result, this will be an all time WV loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-10-48-0-100 I'm in awe. Just stupid geeked out awe. Mother Nature knows how to impress us!!! Let's hope she delivers big time!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 NAM looks to be moving North faster through hr. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Nam is coming in slightly more west so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: NAM looks to be moving North faster through hr. 9 Which would match radar trends. The quicker it can climb northward before the kicker the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I can tell Nam sees dry air better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Looking great at hr 9, but that's when it should be kicked east, hoping not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Wall,of dry air into NNJ Hv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 The radar doesn't look like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheticus Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, North and West said: I was in middle school for both big winters in the 1990s. 1994 was worse; we went to school on a Saturday in March to make up time. . If I remember correctly, my Sophomore year of HS a winter storm on MLK Day 1994 in Westchester gave us a mixed bag of snow and sleet and freezing rain. It went below zero the next few days at night and the salt on the roads didn't work- I remember going out with my Mom and the roads were like dirt roads the ice was so bad. We were off the whole week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Finally pushes dry air out, and looks like a period if decent snow well inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: The radar doesn't look like that. Most of the radar is virga..Richmond is virga currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Wall,of dry air into NNJ Hv Yep huge cutback from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Most of the radar is virga..Richmond is virga currently Ok, but this isn't a precip map, it's a sim radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yep huge cutback from 18z Once it snows it’s heavier inland than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Ok, but this isn't a precip map, it's a sim radar. Just now, Ericjcrash said: Ok, but this isn't a precip map, it's a sim radar. Huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Much improved for N NJ over last run. Sets up the deform band over Bergen Co and it rots there as the storm occluded and is kicked ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yep huge cutback from 18z 1 minute ago, Drz1111 said: Much improved for N NJ over last run. Sets up the deform band over Bergen Co and it rots there as the storm occluded and is kicked ENE. Let’s try to cut back on the contradictory posts like these, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Model noise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Huh It's not accumulated precip. It's a representation of radar. It' off, probably doesn't mean much but it's different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Let’s try to cut back on the contradictory posts like these, thanks. I should've clarified that the back edge shifted east a bit but only affecting far western sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 42 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: This baby looks tucked so far, coastal sections are raining I checked the latest relative motion weather radar from Newport / Morehead City NC. The coastal front runs south to north on a line that runs to the SE of Morehead City. In addition the winds at Diamond Shoals buoy which is not far to the SE of Cape Hatteras backed from N to ENE with a temperature rise of 7 degrees shortly after 8pm as this coastal front moved to the west of the buoy. The center of Low Pressure will move to the north along this coastal front to a position very near to Cape Hatteras in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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