psv88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z GFS totals Not often I see 10” when Boston rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Another bump west by the gfs NYC gets 6-10 inches with more out east but the rain is getting pretty close to eastern LI Cape cod rains on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think this is a positive GFS run. If you look closely - and it's faint, because the GFS doesn't really have the resolution to resolve this - you see the same convergence over NYC at 700mb as you have in the NAM. That's what we want to see b/c its our snowgrowth zone. The odds of getting a hit b/c the placement of the surface low is off by 200 miles or something seems pretty low. The odds of the models underestimating the westward extent of the deformation zone - a known bias in strong EC storms! - is much higher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Recon flight headed in this evening. A USAF RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO SAMPLE THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW IS LIKELY TO BE RAPIDLY DEEPENING. THESE ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS MAY HELP NARROW THE MODEL SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER...PARTICULARLY AS ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ULTIMATE LOW TRACK AND TIMING IS SENSITIVE TO CONDITIONS OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 THhis is about as annoying as this storm gets... huge jump north and it “lessens” precip field lol... I hate this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Subtle, but the upstream ridging was a tick stronger this run, the 500mb vorticity was closer to the coast and the track should have arguably been more Northerly. Excellent post and look how the big snows in southern nj are inching north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM has been leading the way on the system oddly enough. The 0z will be my gospel haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: THhis is about as annoying as this storm gets... huge jump north and it “lessens” precip field lol... I hate this storm Resolution issues, unless extent of initial dry air is higher despite better track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: THhis is about as annoying as this storm gets... huge jump north and it “lessens” precip field lol... I hate this storm It wasn't really a huge jump north-notice the baggy isobars in both frames. The main low is just under a different piece of convection. There was a westward evolution to everything though, so that's good. The GFS verbatim would probably be widespread 10-12" from my area eastward. Where these bands set up tomorrow morning will really be interesting. The really good stuff looks to be between 6am and 12pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: NAM has been leading the way on the system oddly enough. The 0z will be my gospel haha. Well you're not wrong. Pretty consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I still think this jet structure would support a track closer to the coast. This is valid late tonight, when the storm is still approaching. As you can see, the winds are out of the Southeast, clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Even the 700mb low, shown here, nearly passes over the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Thank you JM for all the help you have us today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Even the 700mb low, shown here, nearly passes over the benchmark. Oddly, the models are pretty consistently showing a more westerly track for the 700mb low today, and that seems to be why more QPF is getting pushed back into the NY bight, because it's enhancing lift in the saturated snow-growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Something occurs between 15z and 18z that causes this to kick ENE at the last second. It's beyond my knowledge as to why this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Something occurs between 15z and 18z that causes this to kick ENE at the last second. It's beyond my knowledge as to why this happens.I'm nowhere near even the level of novice (well below THAT) but doesn't the system at the west coast look a bit stronger in the second image than the first?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, nycemt123 said: I'm nowhere near even the level of novice (well below THAT) but doesn't the system at the west coast look a bit stronger in the second image than the first? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk It's 3 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Even the 700mb low, shown here, nearly passes over the benchmark. I think you want the center of that h7 low closer to you. The best VV's/lift will be just north and west of that center....someone with RED TAG please correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 You know what's missing - quick quips by Forky. He has been quiet; that lends pause.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: You know what's missing - quick quips by Forky. He has been quiet; that lends pause.... He thinks the nam maybe right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 0z runs will be very telling if the area is going to see several inches or alot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: You know what's missing - quick quips by Forky. He has been quiet; that lends pause.... I met him at the Paul Kocin conference at kean several years ago . He’s a real cool dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Precips exploding over VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: You know what's missing - quick quips by Forky. He has been quiet; that lends pause.... the board has been slow for me. i think mid levels look really good for nyc. possibly double digits for the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Still ok, I like the overall look but a tad dry IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: I met him at the Paul Kocin conference at kean several years ago . He’s a real cool dude I was at that conference too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Precips exploding over VA Huge convective slug coming in off Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Still ok, I like the overall look but a tad dry IMO. All Canadian products on drier side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the board has been slow for me. i think mid levels look really good for nyc. possibly double digits for the metro agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the board has been slow for me. i think mid levels look really good for nyc. possibly double digits for the metro Ok now I'm intrigued..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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