NorthShoreWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 To much emphasis on the benchmark here. Overall it works as a benchmark, even for this storm, but the size and configuration of every east coast low is different and this one is more different than most. Think about the configuration of the best lift and moisture around the extratropical part of Sandy...the heaviest precip was quite far to the west. Outside the BM could be ideal in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Any word on RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Why is no one talking about the ratios? This storm might be the first one in a while to verify 15-20-1 ratios widespread for areas more than 20 miles from the coast. .5” of liquid could easily be 8”-10”. I would love a met’s opinion on this. Wicked cold air through the CCB and the winds shouldn’t be too bad away from the coast. Seems like prime snow growth to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM still being stingy with the qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 28 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 3k slashed amounts for the interior in half but the 6-10 was probably too high anyway RGEM looks to be slightly drier as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: RGEM still being stingy with the qpf Was also slightly SE of 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 When recons Flights anyone know Tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: To much emphasis on the benchmark here. Overall it works as a benchmark, even for this storm, but the size and configuration of every east coast low is different and this one is more different than most. Think about the configuration of the best lift and moisture around the extratropical part of Sandy...the heaviest precip was quite far to the west. Outside the BM could be ideal in this situation. What are your thoughts for our areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, mikem81 said: RGEM looks to be slightly drier as well It's too dry imo with the precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Why is no one talking about the ratios? This storm might be the first one in a while to verify 15-20-1 ratios widespread for areas more than 20 miles from the coast. .5” of liquid could easily be 8”-10”. I would love a met’s opinion on this. Wicked cold air through the CCB and the winds shouldn’t be too bad away from the coast. Seems like prime snow growth to me. Wind will break/smash dendrites keeping accumulation down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think some need the 5 post rule - please. I have been following this threat since yesterday and at least 20% of the posts in this thread are ruining for people like me who don't know much, want to learn, and want to get a TRUE handle on what is going to happen with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The GGEM has been out to lunch with it's QPF output so I guess it stands to reason the RGEM would be stingy also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: The GGEM has been out to lunch with it's QPF output so I guess it stands to reason the RGEM would be stingy also. Both have been and are most likely wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Gfs off the bat looks to be initializing stronger with our waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looks like less convection over the Atlantic this time too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Gfs is 11mb stronger at hour 12 than the last run, damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Uh oh... lookie here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Uh oh... lookie here Eric besides West of the benchmark help me out what am I looking at ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18z GFS totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18Z GFS much more snow right along coast through 24 and slightly less inland near I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: Eric besides West of the benchmark help me out what am I looking at ? It scooted E next panel but, that was quite the jog NW from 12z. Just interesting to see globals still correcting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: Eric besides West of the benchmark help me out what am I looking at ? Consistently having heavier precip and slp west of each consecutive run. Def more in line with the nam wrf as opposed to the globals. One more tick West puts lots of jersey into big snowfall totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, snow1 said: Nothing new on the gfs imo Ummm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The GFS has a more broad 250mb jet streak, allowing heavier precipitation to spread farther west. The 500mb setup is more favorable with a more tucked area of PVA. Overall leads to a stronger, farther NW LP. I personally think the Canadian guidance is out to lunch after seeing this move by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z GFS totals Think that is more likely then the crazy nam numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: The GFS has a more broad 250mb jet streak, allowing heavier precipitation to spread farther west. The 500mb setup is more favorable with a more tucked area of PVA. Overall leads to a stronger, farther NW LP. I personally think the Canadian guidance is out to lunch after seeing this move by the GFS. Doesn’t translate... cut down western totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Most of NYC proper went from 4 to 6 so it’s an improvement there at least. NW areas ticked down some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Subtle, but the upstream ridging was a tick stronger this run, the 500mb vorticity was closer to the coast and the track should have arguably been more Northerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Totals in Boston not so great, is that due to mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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