NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Another positive trend. That gets Most of LI over a foot, puts NYC in the 6-12" range and puts most of the interior in the at least 3" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NJwx85 doesn't really know how to read a model, so take what he posts with a grain of salt. What is happening is that the new NAM has the best lift just kissing NYC, though it hits a wall there as the storm heads off to the east. Whoever gets under that band will have a warning-level snowfall, whoever doesn't, wont. Depending on what model you're looking at and/or the cut of your boxers, you can argue for that last band setting up anywhere from NYC to the twin forks, and that's why we're all here gnashing our teeth. Every model, mas o menos, is within that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It keeps coming north in the end as well. Jogs east but still comes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Less of a kick east by the Nam so that it eventually ends up west of the previous run despite the intial Eastward trajectory. If that earlier east movement doesn't occur, then we'd all be getting smoked. A lot of that will come down to nowcasting, we've already seen the HRRR making westward adjustments, that could continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Precip is slightly more west on this run compared to 12z. Analysis in here by some are horrible THe QPF is slightly lower, but LP track is basically the same. Really will come down to banding which is impossible to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 yes, these predictive play by plays are pointless and do not further the education of readers here. stop predicting what the model will do and either post images or quantitative analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Less of a kick east by the Nam so that it eventually ends up west of the previous run despite the intial Eastward trajectory. If that earlier east movement doesn't occur, then we'd all be getting smoked. A lot of that will come down to nowcasting, we've already seen the HRRR making westward adjustments, that could continue. Yeah, no jog and it's back to 6z. What a nightmare to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Less of a kick east by the Nam so that it eventually ends up west of the previous run despite the intial Eastward trajectory. If that earlier east movement doesn't occur, then we'd all be getting smoked. A lot of that will come down to nowcasting, we've already seen the HRRR making westward adjustments, that could continue. The trend is our friend, let’s see what the 3k does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Hi res is coming in even more west of the 12k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wrecked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3K NAM looks to go through the BM this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Something odd that I've noticed is that the 3KM NAM is firing off tons of organized supercells in the warm sector of the storm, while the HRR has some convection but generally more stratiform type precipitation. It's been consistent over multiple runs, and I wonder if it relates to the different physics of the models, since both allow convection and (IIRC) incorporate SSTs. To my eye the 3KM NAM seems overdone, and if not Reed Timmer needs to rent a boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I likey. Smoked by bands keeps coming N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Guys, the trolling and bickering is getting ridiculous. Take it to PMs or banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Impressive looking water vapor loop, strong negative tilt to the Jetstream. It would not surprise me if the storm ended up a bit west of all the models once this is set and done. It reminds me of Jan 25, 2000 a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Wrecked. Monmouth County getting raked as per the usual. :o) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 this is either a typo, or Houston we have a problem - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3k hi res Nam has over a foot of snow for NYC and alot more in LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM hasn't moved much, and is actually a bit deeper, but that 6z run just had crazy dynamics, which actually would seem to match the storm's position and strength. But it's now dropped the intensity of the precip more in line with other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Winter Storm Warning just hoisted here for 5"-7" of snow. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued earlier for 2"-4" of snow so amounts have certainly increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Nam still cut totals down pretty big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: I likey. Smoked by bands keeps coming N. Nice to look at but likely overdone based on other modeling. Not one other major model takes it over or within the benchmark, and it’s hard for me to see how it’s more than a 4-6” storm in NYC with an east of benchmark low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 WSW for NYC and Nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The stronger, more consolidated 250mb jet streak allows for more explosive development off of OBX. This leads to 500mb closing off sooner and precipitation to expand NW later on in the run despite a slightly farther E track. The upper levels continue to trend more favorably as we approach the event. Another west trend at 00z would not surprise me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam still cut totals down pretty big It’s moving towards other models. I was intrigued somewhat by that 6z run, but it was clear soon after it was a weenie NAM’d run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam still cut totals down pretty big From 12z? Definitely from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Blizzard warning up now for Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam still cut totals down pretty big Looks to only cut the precip by around .1 in the NYC and LI areas from 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 320 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 CTZ009-NYZ071>075-176>179-040430- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0002.180104T0600Z-180105T0500Z/ /O.EXB.KOKX.WS.W.0001.180104T0600Z-180105T0600Z/ Southern Fairfield-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)- Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 320 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning and evening commutes on Thursday. Tree branches could fall as well. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches especially across Queens and Nassau Counties, are expected. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York including the 5 Boroughs of New York City. * WHEN...From 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, mikem81 said: Looks to only cut the precip by around .1 in the NYC and LI areas from 12Z 3k slashed amounts for the interior in half but the 6-10 was probably too high anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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