Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 23 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Fwiw Eps is west of the op and wetter We need magnitudes. How much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: Yes The replies in the SE subform say yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, North and West said: Can you explain to the common folk? . 500mb wind flow. At the base on the east coast of Fl/Ga, you see a northward bend in the isobars. That's a question I have maybe a met could answer. Wondering if the jet is trying to grab the convection off the Ga coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Hoth said: We need magnitudes. How much? It was already posted. It was very similar to the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I like this look.Why? (Trying to know more). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Nice to see the mid level frontogenesis developing nicely in SC - and slightly west of where modeled - as the flow stretches parallel to the temp gradient. That's what we need for snows in NYC. Also clear CSI signal down there with the multibands starting to show up to the SE of the main frontogenesis band. Going to be a good storm for the coastal mid atlantic, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, North and West said: Why? (Trying to know more) . You want to see convection as far NW as possible. Gives credence to NAM, it' even more pronounced than the NAM had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18z NAM gets rid of that convective blob to the east by hour 4. Curious to see if that will effect the outcome of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: You want to see convection as far NW as possible. Gives credence to NAM, it' even more pronounced than the NAM had. In the simplest terms, this should make my kids happy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM is WAY west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18z surface analysis from WPC. Comparing it to other model positions at 18Z, looks like they have the Low on the western side of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: You want to see convection as far NW as possible. Gives credence to NAM, it' even more pronounced than the NAM had. This is wrong. The key for us isn't the convection, it's the location of frontogenesis in the comma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Early, but it looks like the 18z NAM will be East of the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Very complex. Yesterday, it didn't appear that the trough would dig as rapidly as it did in such a short time. Now, the water vapor loop is showing the trough tilting negatively, with momentum carrying it to at least southern Virginia. You would need the momentum to continue to bring significant snow westward. The latest Euro was showing that. Whether or not that happens I could not say. At least the NWS is actually forecasting possible amounts at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Drz1111 said: This is wrong. The key for us isn't the convection, it's the location of frontogenesis in the comma head. Do we know where that is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Nam will be east of 12z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: NAM is WAY west. 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Early, but it looks like the 18z NAM will be East of the previous run. That above image does not look East to me...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 LOL, so the precip shield might actually end up more expansive on the NW side because the system is as wound up as the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherLovingDoc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, North and West said: Do we know where that is? Look up at the map above. It's the blue area along the coast I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, North and West said: Do we know where that is? Yes. Look at where the most inland (and most intense) snowband is forming down in SC. You'll notice it's oriented NE/SW, parallel to the temp gradient. That's your frontogenic forcing causing lift and precipitation. You want that as far west as possible, and to have as little eastward translation over time as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 So it's the same, system gets to 38N then slides ENE rather than continuing North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Slp east, precip shield west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: That above image does not look East to me...... The NAM is focusing on a different piece of convection to the west on that image. I don’t have access to more images but I guess from there it heads NE if this is looking east from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Well, it's actually moving more Northerly here, going to be a real close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: NAM is WAY west. Looks like it prefers the western low over the Eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GREAT instability suggested by the 18Z NAM at hour 21. If that verifies NYC gets into the heavy comma head. Keep hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Close but no cigar, the center just misses the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Close but no cigar, the center just misses the BM We are talking 25 miles to SE in that picture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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