jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 12z Euro totals Better but not quite the UKMET or NAM for sure, a little less than the GFS and RGEM for the city. I don't think confidence is high enough for warnings in NYC, maybe different story in Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'm not overly concerned w/ Euro, especially with the Ukie's last run. If the NAM craps the bed 18z then I'll start to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 12z Euro totals The Euro hasn’t budged an inch. Rock solid. That’s the forecast I’m going with and the most realistic IMO. Don’t doubt the op Euro this close in plus it’s been remarkably consistent.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Euro and CMC seem to be holding firm in the easterly camp, interesting battle of the models ensuing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 More concerned w/ RGEM HRRR tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, snowman19 said: The Euro hasn’t budged an inch. Rock solid. That’s the forecast I’m going with and the most realistic IMO. Don’t doubt the op Euro this close in plus it’s been remarkably consistent.... Of course you r u only seem to comment once the EURO comes out.... UKMET increased a lot and so did a lot of the other models since last night. EURO does not always have to be right and has failed before . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Mesoscale models are the way to go now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It should be noted that the ECMWF has been among the driest models. The 0z run had only 0.36" for ISP. The 12z run bumped that up to 0.57". At FOK, the ECMWF increased the qpf from 0.48" to 0.73". Farther west, the ECMWF increased NYC's total qpf from 0.19" to 0.39". This tells me the ECMWF is in the process of catching up to the other guidance. In my view, taking into consideration the other guidance, the ECMWF is still too low for much of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Of course you r u only seem to comment once the EURO comes out.... UKMET increased a lot and so did a lot of the other models since last night. EURO does not always have to be right and has failed before . Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Euro hasn’t budged an inch. Rock solid. That’s the forecast I’m going with and the most realistic IMO. Don’t doubt the op Euro this close in plus it’s been remarkably consistent.... Its shifted west a number of times in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, snowman19 said: The Euro hasn’t budged an inch. Rock solid. That’s the forecast I’m going with and the most realistic IMO. Don’t doubt the op Euro this close in plus it’s been remarkably consistent.... Bad meteorology. Euro is a global and doesn't have the resolution to pick up on fine track details, especially for a storm like this with lots of convection. In the short to medium range, it's just another tool alongside the other globals, regionals, and high res / CAMs, and there isn't a scientific basis to weigh it much more heavily since its verification isn't materially better. If this storm were 3 days away its a whole different story, but it's important to have a basic understanding as to the underpinnings of each model and what it's good for and what it's less good for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: Of course you r u only seem to comment once the EURO comes out.... UKMET increased a lot and so did a lot of the other models since last night. EURO does not always have to be right and has failed before . Euro did increase. It went from .15 at ewr to around .3 it would seem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Euro hasn’t budged an inch. Rock solid. That’s the forecast I’m going with and the most realistic IMO. Don’t doubt the op Euro this close in plus it’s been remarkably consistent.... I remember that exact quote about three years ago when the "rock" forecast 24-36..you may be right, but I wouldn't go with that reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: It should be noted that the ECMWF has been among the driest models. The 0z run had only 0.36" for ISP. The 12z run bumped that up to 0.57". Farther west, the ECMWF increased NYC's total qpf from 0.19" to 0.39". This tells me the ECMWF is in the process of catching up to the other guidance. In my view, taking into consideration the other guidance, the ECMWF is still too low for much of Long Island. .57" for Islip? That just seems low. And almost doubled both locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro did increase. It went from .15 at ewr to around .3 it would seem Yup it's trend is more important than what it's printing considering it's a medium range model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Euro hasn’t budged an inch. Rock solid. That’s the forecast I’m going with and the most realistic IMO. Don’t doubt the op Euro this close in plus it’s been remarkably consistent.... Euro just doubled snow totals for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 26 minutes ago, MANDA said: Based off 12Z model consensus so far this morning (EURO not yet arrived) I'd forecast 2-3" southeast Morris tapering to 1-2" NW on the Sussex border where I am. Only NAM suggests you go above those numbers for Morris County. I'll give the NAM its due in that it nailed the Jan 2016 event ahead of other guidance but even a blind squirrel can find a nut once and a while. Ratios 10-1 on average. Winds will assure most of that. Temp profile marginal for 12-1. Storm is also moving quickly along and banding likely won't save the day this far west. Based off latest EURO....not much to argue with as per above. Euro has about .30" liquid SE to about .20" NW Morris County. Maybe 2-4 and 1-3" would be better forecast but based on what I've seen this morning not higher than that as far as this part of NJ is concerned. Southern NJ and coastal sections could see 5-8" amounts. Still have to watch this event unfold....not signed, sealed and delivered just yet. Any tick to the left will raise totals but more reliable guidance seems to be locked and loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Euro hasn’t budged an inch. Rock solid. That’s the forecast I’m going with and the most realistic IMO. Don’t doubt the op Euro this close in plus it’s been remarkably consistent.... Such a terrible post the last three euro runs it’s basically doubled it’s qpf for nyc on every run plus h5 is so much better each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: .57" for Islip? That just seems low. And almost doubled both locales. I agree. I think it's too low. The 0z run will probably catch up. By then, the storm will be out our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 My final call is 4-6" for NYC proper, 3-5" for the immediate NNJ suburbs, 5-7" for Monmouth and coastal NJ, 4-8" for Nassau, SW CT, 6-12" for Suffolk with a possible 12"+ out past Riverhead. 2-4" for the outer suburbs, covering Passaic, Morris, Somerset, Rockland and Orange Counties. 2-4" looks good for most of the Eastern Lower Hudson Valley except for Westchester where I could see 3-6". Out in far interior like Sullivan, Ulster, Sussex, Warren I think 1-3" is a good bet, but I think it's a close call in Sussex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: My final call is 4-6" for NYC proper, 3-5" for the immediate NNJ suburbs, 5-7" for Monmouth and coastal NJ, 4-8" for Nassau, SW CT, 6-12" for Suffolk with a possible 12"+ out past Riverhead. 2-4" for the outer suburbs, covering Passaic, Morris, Somerset, Rockland and Orange Counties. 2-4" looks good for most of the Eastern Lower Hudson Valley except for Westchester where I could see 3-6". Out in far interior like Sullivan, Ulster, Sussex, Warren I think 1-3" is a good bit, but I think it's a close call in Sussex. That's a good call, there's always the possibility that models are undergoing the amounts, which is very possible with a 960-950 mb storm but that's the chance we must take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree. I think it's too low. The 0z run will probably catch up. By then, the storm will be out our doorstep. The Euro keeps that piece of 500mb vorticity a lot further offshore than say the NAM. As soon as I saw that I knew this wasn't going to be the miracle run people hoped for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: My final call is 4-6" for NYC proper, 3-5" for the immediate NNJ suburbs, 5-7" for Monmouth and coastal NJ, 4-8" for Nassau, SW CT, 6-12" for Suffolk with a possible 12"+ out past Riverhead. 2-4" for the outer suburbs, covering Passaic, Morris, Somerset, Rockland and Orange Counties. 2-4" looks good for most of the Eastern Lower Hudson Valley except for Westchester where I could see 3-6". Out in far interior like Sullivan, Ulster, Sussex, Warren I think 1-3" is a good bet, but I think it's a close call in Sussex. Not mad at it, I think NYC is more like 5"(GWB)-8"(Bayside/Floral Park) but really that's nuiance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: My final call is 4-6" for NYC proper, 3-5" for the immediate NNJ suburbs, 5-7" for Monmouth and coastal NJ, 4-8" for Nassau, SW CT, 6-12" for Suffolk with a possible 12"+ out past Riverhead. 2-4" for the outer suburbs, covering Passaic, Morris, Somerset, Rockland and Orange Counties. 2-4" looks good for most of the Eastern Lower Hudson Valley except for Westchester where I could see 3-6". Out in far interior like Sullivan, Ulster, Sussex, Warren I think 1-3" is a good bet, but I think it's a close call in Sussex. Very reasonable forecast based off current guidance. Anything above those numbers is wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Euro hasn’t budged an inch. Rock solid. That’s the forecast I’m going with and the most realistic IMO. Don’t doubt the op Euro this close in plus it’s been remarkably consistent.... You're right, the euro has been consistent. It has consistently folded towards the Meso models since Sunday Night. It has brought the low about 400 miles west since then and has pushed precip further and further west each run as well as increased it. I don't know where you see consistent other than it has consistently been playing catch up to all other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Old vs new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, The Iceman said: You're right, the euro has been consistent. It has consistently folded towards the Meso models since Sunday Night. It has brought the low about 400 miles west since then and has pushed precip further and further west each run as well as increased it. I don't know where you see consistent other than it has consistently been playing catch up to all other guidance. But yet people trust the model like gospel. Right before the Blizzard Bust of 2015, people were saying the Euro doesn't miss this close in. And then it did. It's consistently moving towards the other models. Even the Ukie now has abandoned the Euro, despite one erroneous report previously that it was bad for everyone except LI (it wasn't). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 One thing that I haven't seen much talk about, is that this system seems to have a very strong Eastern side. I wonder if that's because it has some hybrid or warm core characteristics? Earlier model runs had that double barreled low, struggling with that strong convection. I can't keep but wonder if models have that Northeast quadrant too intense, and are wrongfully dragging the surface low towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The 500mb jet is certainly negatively tilted on the Euro, and it should be drawing the system up and in rather than up and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Old vs new Billy,,,humor me,,,,,,the OLD is on the bottom and the new is on top , am I correct ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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