F5TornadoF5 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 JMA improved a bit from yesterday's 12z run, can't forget about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Cmc stays consistent in jackpotting cape may and giving the northeast next to nothing.. even Boston. Yeah I'm tossing it. Its just too far off for SNE that I think its safe to say it is out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Could be the sloppy phase and too much energy entering on the backside of the trough trying to constantly push this thing east, also the low begins to become vertically stacked by our latitude. With that said whomever gets underneath the death band/s will experience some much higher amounts because this is after all a storm coming from the tropics. Exactly what I have been saying. As we have seen in past miller As that deform is going to have rates that are 3”/hr+. I still like Suffolk for the main deform band. Though there can be secondary bands back into the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly what I have been saying. As we have seen in past miller As that deform is going to have rates that are 3”/hr+. I still like Suffolk for the main deform band. Though there can be secondary bands back into the city Where the random Albany jackpots usually set up, I'm thinking with a storm this big this will be shifted east. I'm really not that concerned about the globals/skimpy QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 UKIE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Where the random Albany jackpots usually set up, I'm thinking with a storm this big this will be shifted east. I'm really not that concerned about the globals/skimpy QPF. Keep in mind, the secondary inland jackpot is often partially orographically driven. That's why it normally hangs out over the highlands or the front end of the Catskills. Here you won't have orographic effects, though there is an argument that frictional convergence at the coast can create a slight enhancement of lift over NYC and tend - but only tend - to park that last good band there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Keep in mind, the secondary inland jackpot is often partially orographically driven. That's why it normally hangs out over the highlands or the front end of the Catskills. Here you won't have orographic effects, though there is an argument that frictional convergence at the coast can create a slight enhancement of lift over NYC and tend - but only tend - to park that last good band there. Very true and I was just about to add that myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Keep in mind, the secondary inland jackpot is often partially orographically driven. That's why it normally hangs out over the highlands or the front end of the Catskills. Here you won't have orographic effects, though there is an argument that frictional convergence at the coast can create a slight enhancement of lift over NYC and tend - but only tend - to park that last good band there. Could you please clarify what that means for lurkers like me? :-) Edit: I googled it, no need to clarify. TIA though! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This looks like it will be very similar to the early December storm, with the only difference being more on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said: This looks like it will be very similar to the early December storm, with the only difference being more on LI. The coast should get more than the December event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: This looks like it will be very similar to the early December storm, with the only difference being more on LI. Yeah 950mb lows happen every month. But yeah, I know what you mean-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Yeah 950mb lows happen every month. But yeah, I know what you mean-ish Sensible weather in terms of snowfall amounts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Right now I would go with 4-8 for NYC and 6-12 for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Right now I would go with 4-8 for NYC and 6-12 for LI Why ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Literally my thoughts in model form. Lock it up IMO. 12z Hires RGEM vs 6z. The 12z Just seems realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Right now I would go with 4-8 for NYC and 6-12 for LI I agree, maybe bump up eastern Suffolk to 10-15". Consensus is for .5" QPF TO about NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This really shows where exactly the banding will setup on the NAM. There will be subsidence to both the immediate West and East of this band, but it will be moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, hudsonvalley21 said: Fairly negative now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Fairly negative now What does that imply? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Literally my thoughts in model form. Lock it up IMO. 12z Hires RGEM vs 6z. The 12z Just seems realistic Bit more precip falling on the 12z there. But yes it looks reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This really shows where exactly the banding will setup on the NAM. There will be subsidence to both the immediate West and East of this band, but it will be moving. no it does not. vorticity is not a measure for location of vertical motion. it can be inferred but it’s misleading to say the bright red is where the band ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, F5TornadoF5 said: Bit more precip falling on the 12z there. But yes it looks reasonable It cut down some for me, but I like it's thinking. SNE does well as they should too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The Germans woke up. Big shift west from prior runs which were identical for days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, North and West said: What does that imply? Essentially a negative tilted trough will allow it to stay closer to the coast. A progressive or positive tilted trough will allow it to be further off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Why ? Because that's the blend of the models right now but that can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Here is an article on negative tilted troughs. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/127/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 There's an IR dry slot over Boston but it's snowing heavily there. There's an IR comma head over the NYC metro and NW areas but lighter precipitation. It seems like the model isn't even communicating with itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I agree, maybe bump up eastern Suffolk to 10-15". Consensus is for .5" QPF TO about NYC Also depends on banding which we will not know until the event starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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