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Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb


Rjay

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What’s interesting is that the higher resolution models are across the board west of the globals.  That has to give pause.  

As you get within 24hrs, if the high res and convection-allowing models stay west, there’s a good chance the globals are too far east.  We’ll see.

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7 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Noteably the 3k NAM has been wayyy more consistent than the 12k.  I would toss the 12k till it stabilizes, the lower resolution oils be having trouble with the deep convection. The 0z 12k solution was laughable. 

I agree though the globals have been consistent in that they have kept the heaviest axis of snow well east of the city - albeit with a moderate shift west in recent runs. I would expect this to adjust even further at 12z if the NAM (both the 12k and 3k) is on to something, otherwise the NAM is very likely overdone.

edit: just an FYI- I do in fact believe that they will shift west

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The NAM is basically in agreement with the globals on the track. The globals sometimes underestimate backside precip. We saw this last month. The busts are usually the storms that bomb out too late for us and end up burying New England instead. This is what happened in 2015, but this storm is bombing out well to our south. This is a warning level snow for the city.

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5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

12mb stronger than last run same time roughly....models are a mess with this

Forgetting the snow and amounts, I can;t imagine coastal regions not getting blasted here. There is a 1030MB hP +/- in Ontario...thats an 84MB difference....

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2 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said:

The NAM is basically in agreement with the globals on the track. The globals sometimes underestimate backside precip. We saw this last month. The busts are usually the storms that bomb out too late for us and end up burying New England instead. This is what happened in 2015, but this storm is bombing out well to our south. This is a warning level snow for the city.

Good point

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The 3K Nam is slightly west and 9 MB stronger at 12z than the 6z run.  That did not translate as much to the banding over NYC and parts of NJ, but as people have said, that is going to be unpredictable at this point anyway.  If the storm continues to track slightly to the west, and close to the benchmark, and is that strong, NYC and parts to its immediate west can see some nice amounts from this.  LI is obviously the safest place to be for a big snow event here.

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Ratio wise after looking at everything and considering winds I'd be reluctant to go higher than 13 to 1

For NYC and long island I’d agree. I would say I-95 and west will have no problem pulling 15-20-1. The ratios could make snowfall totals less variant on areas on the coast vs just west.

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Remember all look at last March and also NEMO. As the storm was going on the band was well west of the models depiction. Not saying this will happen but cannot be caught off guard due to what models like the EURO are showing. This storm is way to close to us. Its all about the precip field.

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