brooklynwx99 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 A closed 500mb LP S of Montauk and a powerful 250mb jet streak north of the area will produce major snowfall time and time again. Don't look at QPF output; mid-levels are the real keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Noteably the 3k NAM has been wayyy more consistent than the 12k. I would toss the 12k till it stabilizes, the lower resolution could be having trouble with the deep convection. The 0z 12k solution was laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If you are here to discuss the website or posters and not the storm, find somewhere else to post. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM was the only model that warm in that layer. Most were -10C or so at 10,000 feet. it's also the only model that spit out that much QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looks good to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 What’s interesting is that the higher resolution models are across the board west of the globals. That has to give pause. As you get within 24hrs, if the high res and convection-allowing models stay west, there’s a good chance the globals are too far east. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This is nothing to sneeze at; 946MB LP at out latitude...jeeeeeez - look at the feed of moisture from the Canadian Maritime's down through the Mid Atlantic region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Noteably the 3k NAM has been wayyy more consistent than the 12k. I would toss the 12k till it stabilizes, the lower resolution oils be having trouble with the deep convection. The 0z 12k solution was laughable. I agree though the globals have been consistent in that they have kept the heaviest axis of snow well east of the city - albeit with a moderate shift west in recent runs. I would expect this to adjust even further at 12z if the NAM (both the 12k and 3k) is on to something, otherwise the NAM is very likely overdone. edit: just an FYI- I do in fact believe that they will shift west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, weatherlogix said: This is nothing to sneeze at; 946MB LP at out latitude...jeeeeeez 12mb stronger than last run same time roughly....models are a mess with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I agree, the 500mb charts are better to look at than QPF panels. With the closed 500mb low not that far away, there would be crazy banding and rates just east of the NYC area. Still something worth paying attention to for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The NAM is basically in agreement with the globals on the track. The globals sometimes underestimate backside precip. We saw this last month. The busts are usually the storms that bomb out too late for us and end up burying New England instead. This is what happened in 2015, but this storm is bombing out well to our south. This is a warning level snow for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 12mb stronger than last run same time roughly....models are a mess with this Forgetting the snow and amounts, I can;t imagine coastal regions not getting blasted here. There is a 1030MB hP +/- in Ontario...thats an 84MB difference.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If the pressure here gets any lower, we might need to use hurricane models to forecast it! Bring out the GFDL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 12mb stronger than last run same time roughly....models are a mess with this This will probably come down to a "nowcasting" event with a deep LP and a jog in any direction. Winds will be a definite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Analysis and data only in this thread please. Posts about lousy other members, how much you hate X model, etc don’t belong here and will be removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said: The NAM is basically in agreement with the globals on the track. The globals sometimes underestimate backside precip. We saw this last month. The busts are usually the storms that bomb out too late for us and end up burying New England instead. This is what happened in 2015, but this storm is bombing out well to our south. This is a warning level snow for the city. Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'm not a fan of the sref's but they jumped well west. Really beginning to like this threads name! Should do this often! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The 3K Nam is slightly west and 9 MB stronger at 12z than the 6z run. That did not translate as much to the banding over NYC and parts of NJ, but as people have said, that is going to be unpredictable at this point anyway. If the storm continues to track slightly to the west, and close to the benchmark, and is that strong, NYC and parts to its immediate west can see some nice amounts from this. LI is obviously the safest place to be for a big snow event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Looks good to me... Are vertical velocities shown on here? I would think the temperature where max VV and max RH line up would be a good starting point for ratio calcs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3k Nam is over a foot up and down I 95 and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Can anyone offer some insight on what they're observing with the storm down south compared to how models are initializing? Also what are short term models showing? Too early still to look at them? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Ratio wise after looking at everything and considering winds I'd be reluctant to go higher than 13 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This almost feels like a warm core system coming from the tropics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I just spent the last hour accidentally posting in the Philly forum.... In any event, the mid-level centers come very close to the coast this NAM run and induce some risk of mixing at the typical South shore locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Ratio wise after looking at everything and considering winds I'd be reluctant to go higher than 13 to 1 For NYC and long island I’d agree. I would say I-95 and west will have no problem pulling 15-20-1. The ratios could make snowfall totals less variant on areas on the coast vs just west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 3k Nam is over a foot up and down I 95 and west I think you mean east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Remember all look at last March and also NEMO. As the storm was going on the band was well west of the models depiction. Not saying this will happen but cannot be caught off guard due to what models like the EURO are showing. This storm is way to close to us. Its all about the precip field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I think you mean east Yeah. West of I-95 is not getting a foot of snow or anything close to it lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 From the black and white maps, but the 12z RGEM looks West, at least in terms of the snow shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I think you mean east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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