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Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb


Rjay

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37 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The Euro has blew chunks this winter

Everyone discounted the Nam before and got burned in 2016.

SREF shifted west

Yes, but wasn't that more or less a one-time occurrence? More often than not ... much more often than not ... the NAM is usually overdone on QPF, no?

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Models are going to struggle with all the convection firing up over the ocean and dynamics that come into play, that’s obvious now. But if there’s going to be a real stronger trend here for us, it’s about now or never time. I’d expect other 12z models to jump on board, or else I’d call the NAM still overdone. 

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1 minute ago, weatherlogix said:

why are you assuming high ratios?

The 6Z nam had temps between H650 and H8 at like -7C  or so, need it to be colder than that (-11 to -15) for optimal snow growth and higher ratios

 

The NAM was the only model that warm in that layer.  Most were -10C or so at 10,000 feet.

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