UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: I'm not a fan of the sref's but they jumped well west. Can u post the ensembles/mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I just checked Srefs....very weird...the arw members basically switched places with the nmb...normally the arw are too wet and nmb are nothing, now the nmb area juiced and arw are misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Maybe 1 member. Here's the mean Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The NAM is a huge outlier right now. How many times have we seen the NAM have these off the wall runs just before a storm then back way down to reality? Watch the 12z run flip. I think the 0z Euro/EPS is the closest to reality tomorrow here. The Euro is not going to be that far off this close in The Euro has blew chunks this winter Everyone discounted the Nam before and got burned in 2016. SREF shifted west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The operational Euro uses 4DVAR, its resolution is very good for a global model. In fact, we have seen it school mesoscale models on a couple of occasions in the past. It’s extremely unlikely that the Euro is way off this close to the event. It’s had the same solution for tomorrow for several runs now The Euro has had some tremendous issues or "late to the party" situations over the last several winters. It's overall a tremendous model and tends to do very very well synoptically, but my confidence in it's performance during the winter and with EC events has been shaken to a fair degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The operational Euro uses 4DVAR, its resolution is very good for a global model. In fact, we have seen it school mesoscale models on a couple of occasions in the past. It’s extremely unlikely that the Euro is way off this close to the event. It’s had the same solution for tomorrow for several runs now No it hasn't It has been trended west everyday and the Euro can be way off close to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: The Euro has blew chunks this winter Everyone discounted the Nam before and got burned in 2016. SREF shifted west All factual. All weenie rationalization. IMO the nmb members being pumped is a great sign so I agree with ulster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Where exactly is the current SLP center? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: All factual. All weenie rationalization. IMO the nmb members being pumped is a great sign so I agree with ulster. Yes sir 9z SREF .50 line is just passed NYC to the west .75 line starts near the Brooklyn / Queens border 1.00 line is in central LI More than 1.00 line is in eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Any hints of the Great Lakes kicker holding back more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Trends, radar, location of convection all probably more important than individual model runs at this point...and though the nam is an outlier, no one can argue the trends west and toward a more impactful storm over the last few days, though it may be overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 SREF plumes have over 6 inches for Newark , 8 inches for JFK and over 10 inches for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Joe Bastardi just posted the low pressure center is just off of Cape Canaveral FL. Which model (if any) does that match up with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: I seem to remember the big 2/6/10 storm that stopped short of us wound up throwing huge amounts back to Pittsburgh which I don't remember being in the mix originally....but I could be"misremembering" Some accumulations from that storm: Atlantic City: 18.2” Baltimore: 25.0” New York City: Trace Newark: 0.4” Philadelphia: 28.5” Washington, DC: 17.8” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 0Z Euro underestimated the NW extent of the heavier convection over Northern Florida on the latest radar image. It had the heaviest convection further SE. 0z Euro forecast Current radar A possible early "win" for the NAM. Still, much more remains to play out with the evolution of this highly complex and dynamic system. It will be interesting to see if the 12z NAM corrects back east or maintains a solution similar to the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Some accumulations from that storm: Atlantic City: 18.2” Baltimore: 25.0” New York City: Trace Newark: 0.4” Philadelphia: 28.5” Washington, DC: 17.8” Yea the infamous virga storm. I was in disbelief for hours after seeing heavy precip hit what seemed to be a titanium wall. Even more excruciating than Jan 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Might be weeniesh but the 6z NAM is more accurate as far as current radar than the 12z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 19 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Where exactly is the current SLP center? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: A possible early "win" for the NAM. Still, much more remains to play out with the evolution of this highly complex and dynamic system. What you are seeing over northern Florida could be melting snowflakes aloft. I would not be too quick to classify that as convection. The 8am obs are below. Many reports of frozen precip down there this morning. FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 800 AM EST WED JAN 03 2018 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. FLZ001>010-012>015-112-114-115-031400- PANHANDLE FLORIDA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS PENSACOLA CLOUDY 32 18 56 N9 30.27F WCI 24 PENSACOLA NAS MOCLDY 32 18 56 N7 30.25F WCI 26 MILTON NAS CLOUDY 30 19 63 N6 30.27 WCI 24 CRESTVIEW MOCLDY 30 18 60 N6 30.28S WCI 24 DUKE FIELD MOCLDY 29 18 65 N5 30.25S WCI 23 VALPARAISO MOCLDY 30 16 54 N7 30.25S WCI 23 MARY ESTHER CLOUDY 31 19 61 N9 30.25F WCI 22 PANAMA CITY FAIR 30 14 51 NW8 30.23F WCI 22 TYNDALL AFB PTCLDY 32 11 41 NE8 30.22F WCI 25 APALACHICOLA MOCLDY 33 14 45 N8 30.22R WCI 26 STATION/POSITION SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S) 29.2N 88.2W 45 340/ 16/ 21 1024.8 28.8N 86.0W 49 71 350/ 12/ 17 1022.3R 4/ 6 2/ 6 PANAMA CITY BEAC 31 57 360/ 9/ 11 1024.1F TOWER C 37 360/ 15/ 17 1022.8S $$ FLZ011-016>038-118-127-128-134-139-239-031400- NORTH FLORIDA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS MARIANNA CLOUDY 29 11 47 N5 30.25S WCI 24 TALLAHASSEE LGTSLEET 30 22 72 VRB6 30.19F WCI 24 PERRY MIX PCPN 32 30 91 NW7 30.21R WCI 26 LIVE OAK CLOUDY 30 30 100 CALM 30.18R CROSS CITY MIX PCPN 32 32 100 NW13G20 30.21R FOG WCI 22 LAKE CITY LGT SNOW 32 30 93 N6 30.12S WCI 26 GAINESVILLE MIX PCPN 32 30 92 N9 30.10F FOG WCI 24 WILLISTON N/A 36 34 93 W7G14 30.09R FOG WCI 30 PALATKA LGT RAIN 37 37 100 N10 30.04F WCI 30 MAYPORT NAS LGT RAIN 36 35 96 N9 30.07F WCI 29 JACKSONVILLE LGT RAIN 33 30 88 N9 30.09F WCI 25 JAX NAS CLOUDY 35 33 92 N16 30.09F WCI 25 JAX CECIL LGT RAIN 32 32 100 N12 30.10S FOG WCI 23 ST AUGUSTINE LGT RAIN 46 45 96 N12 30.05F FOG WCI 41 PALM COAST RAIN 52 50 93 N12G23 30.00F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Tatamy said: What you are seeing over northern Florida could be melting snowflakes aloft. I would not be too quick to classify that as convection. The 8am obs are below. Many reports of frozen precip down there this morning. FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 800 AM EST WED JAN 03 2018 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. FLZ001>010-012>015-112-114-115-031400- PANHANDLE FLORIDA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS PENSACOLA CLOUDY 32 18 56 N9 30.27F WCI 24 PENSACOLA NAS MOCLDY 32 18 56 N7 30.25F WCI 26 MILTON NAS CLOUDY 30 19 63 N6 30.27 WCI 24 CRESTVIEW MOCLDY 30 18 60 N6 30.28S WCI 24 DUKE FIELD MOCLDY 29 18 65 N5 30.25S WCI 23 VALPARAISO MOCLDY 30 16 54 N7 30.25S WCI 23 MARY ESTHER CLOUDY 31 19 61 N9 30.25F WCI 22 PANAMA CITY FAIR 30 14 51 NW8 30.23F WCI 22 TYNDALL AFB PTCLDY 32 11 41 NE8 30.22F WCI 25 APALACHICOLA MOCLDY 33 14 45 N8 30.22R WCI 26 STATION/POSITION SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S) 29.2N 88.2W 45 340/ 16/ 21 1024.8 28.8N 86.0W 49 71 350/ 12/ 17 1022.3R 4/ 6 2/ 6 PANAMA CITY BEAC 31 57 360/ 9/ 11 1024.1F TOWER C 37 360/ 15/ 17 1022.8S $$ FLZ011-016>038-118-127-128-134-139-239-031400- NORTH FLORIDA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS MARIANNA CLOUDY 29 11 47 N5 30.25S WCI 24 TALLAHASSEE LGTSLEET 30 22 72 VRB6 30.19F WCI 24 PERRY MIX PCPN 32 30 91 NW7 30.21R WCI 26 LIVE OAK CLOUDY 30 30 100 CALM 30.18R CROSS CITY MIX PCPN 32 32 100 NW13G20 30.21R FOG WCI 22 LAKE CITY LGT SNOW 32 30 93 N6 30.12S WCI 26 GAINESVILLE MIX PCPN 32 30 92 N9 30.10F FOG WCI 24 WILLISTON N/A 36 34 93 W7G14 30.09R FOG WCI 30 PALATKA LGT RAIN 37 37 100 N10 30.04F WCI 30 MAYPORT NAS LGT RAIN 36 35 96 N9 30.07F WCI 29 JACKSONVILLE LGT RAIN 33 30 88 N9 30.09F WCI 25 JAX NAS CLOUDY 35 33 92 N16 30.09F WCI 25 JAX CECIL LGT RAIN 32 32 100 N12 30.10S FOG WCI 23 ST AUGUSTINE LGT RAIN 46 45 96 N12 30.05F FOG WCI 41 PALM COAST RAIN 52 50 93 N12G23 30.00F That's correct. That's why I used possible, as I hadn't had a chance to look at the observations at the time. FWIW, I still think the 6z NAM is an outlier and would not be surprised to see the 12z run move into better agreement with the RGEM and some of the other guidance. We'll soon see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Somehow I think Nam will be West...southern stream much better yet again, overall trof axis is better, with better heights/PNA Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Somehow I think Nam will be West...southern stream much better yet again, overall trof axis is better, with better heights/PNA Ridge Eh, idk. Seems confused on which SLP to go with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I guess we'll soon find out if the nam is onto something or on something. If it holds serve it will be hard to discount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Somehow I think Nam will be West...southern stream much better yet again, overall trof axis is better, with better heights/PNA Ridge if you toggle between the 15hr at 12Z vs. the 21hr at 6Z you will see everything is slightly NE so far. Not saying that will continue, just stating the facts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Eh, idk. Seems confused on which SLP to go with. I don’t think that will be an issue in end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: if you toggle between the 15hr at 12Z vs. the 21hr at 6Z you will see everything is slightly NE so far. Not saying that will continue, just stating the facts and there is that second LP center east of the main low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 My old military stomping grounds just north of Florida. Moody AFB, Valdosta GA, 28F and freezing rain, no snow. Winds out of the West. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=VAX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18 at 12Z vs 24 at 6Z shows a fairly sizable shift east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Heavier convection is still West, not concerned with slp placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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