NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, TriPol said: I love how the other day Hudson County was the only county in Upton NWS region to get a WWA and now we're the only county to not get any kind of advisory or warning. #shafted No Counties in Northern NJ got one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: 6z HRDPS have over 6 inches of snow for NYC and more in LI When I awoke WNYC was calling for 1-3....the next update they were at 3-5 in the city..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: When I awoke WNYC was calling for 1-3....the next update they were at 3-5 in the city..... Are you referring to Channel 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: Are you referring to Channel 5? radio, I'm old fashioned....82 am 93.9 fm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The city sees 6+, possibly much more. Time and again we've seen our science fail east, in the mid range, in the face of highly dynamic systems. Since this started coming west 3 days ago the writing was on the wall. Once the mesos start moving you can't ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Everything is still on the table...but I certainly would not risk taking the NAM verbatim. We've seen this play out before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM may be into something, but it has to be dismissed as a weenie run until others back it up. I wouldn’t dramatically increase snow totals unless the 12z suite follows suit or we see the low form in the way the NAM has it. It would be a massive fail for every other model and this close in its highly unlikely. Doesn’t mean a smaller west trend at this stage is that unlikely though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Enigma said: Everything is still on the table...but I certainly would not risk taking the NAM verbatim. We've seen this play out before. I seem to remember the big 2/6/10 storm that stopped short of us wound up throwing huge amounts back to Pittsburgh which I don't remember being in the mix originally....but I could be"misremembering" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: NAM may be into something, but it has to be dismissed as a weenie run until others back it up. I wouldn’t dramatically increase snow totals unless the 12z suite follows suit or we see the low form in the way the NAM has it. It would be a massive fail for every other model and this close in its highly unlikely. Doesn’t mean a smaller west trend at this stage is that unlikely though. Still seems like we are bound to get a plowable event in the cities just west of NYC, that' s all I'm thinking right now. We've been on the fringe the whole time ( though not that far on the fringe ) so not expecting 1-2 feet, but 3-6 is realistic don't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I seem to remember the big 2/6/10 storm that stopped short of us wound up throwing huge amounts back to Pittsburgh which I don't remember being in the mix originally....but I could be"misremembering" I was in the Hills east of Pittsburgh....got wrecked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 As the storm is on its way, if the NAM holds serve at 12z and some of the other Mesos trend further in its way, then it would be prudent to believe that higher amounts than what is currently seen with the globals are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Still seems like we are bound to get a plowable event in the cities just west of NYC, that' s all I'm thinking right now. We've been on the fringe the whole time ( though not that far on the fringe ) so not expecting 1-2 feet, but 3-6 is realistic don't you think? 3-6 range has been my guess for NYC up to now with 10 on eastern LI. But there'll definitely be attention paid to the 12z suite, if they do go in the NAM's direction, it'll be higher obviously. The NAM could be starting a last minute trend, or it could just be an overdone weenie run like it somehow has. The 6z RGEM isn't anywhere near as impressive although it may have went west a little. The GFS 6z looks similar to the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM was a sizable shift to heavy precip on the western end like Nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 How is the NAM solution squaring with current observations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM 1 run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM was a sizable shift to heavy precip on the western end like Nam... This to me looks like 0.5" liquid gets about to MBY and 0.25" gets to 10 miles or so west of I-95. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2018010306&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The HRRR is coming markedly west across parts of SC/NC now for this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: This to me looks like 0.5" liquid gets about to MBY and 0.25" gets to 10 miles or so west of I-95. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2018010306&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=48 RGEM 0.3 for NYC and agrees with GFS 2 to 4 looks good for NYC 2 for the park and 4 for Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM did shift west at 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Nam3k vs HRRR down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam3k vs HRRR down south Twinning. Need to see that slug of precip ride up. It would be absolutely stunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 HRRR low placement is further east though, at east on latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 42 minutes ago, Enigma said: Everything is still on the table...but I certainly would not risk taking the NAM verbatim. We've seen this play out before. The NAM is a huge outlier right now. How many times have we seen the NAM have these off the wall runs just before a storm then back way down to reality? Watch the 12z run flip. I think the 0z Euro/EPS is the closest to reality tomorrow here. The Euro is not going to be that far off this close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The NAM is a huge outlier right now. How many times have we seen the NAM have these off the wall runs just before a storm then back way down to reality? Watch the 12z run flip. I think the 0z Euro/EPS is the closest to reality tomorrow here. The Euro is not going to be that far off this close in Euro was trash with Xmas storm for interior...Albany saw 9.8’’ euro didn’t even have a band within 30 miles of them day of....I’d agree nothing’s set in stone..people were saying fish storm 2 days ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'm not a fan of the sref's but they jumped well west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The NAM is a huge outlier right now. How many times have we seen the NAM have these off the wall runs just before a storm then back way down to reality? Watch the 12z run flip. I think the 0z Euro/EPS is the closest to reality tomorrow here. The Euro is not going to be that far off this close in FWIW, this is bad logic. The Euro’s coarser resolution does tend to expose it to errors with big EC bombs within short time frames, and meso and regional models, with higher resolutions, are the exact kinds of models that might pick up on that. That doesn’t mean the Euro is off in this instance, just that it’s a coarsely-gridded global and this scenario is NOT where it is ‘the king’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The NAM is a huge outlier right now. How many times have we seen the NAM have these off the wall runs just before a storm then back way down to reality? Watch the 12z run flip. I think the 0z Euro/EPS is the closest to reality tomorrow here. The Euro is not going to be that far off this close in I think a weighted blend of all models is the best approach. That being said I think the NWS 3 to 6 inch call falls in this blend and is a good call at this point. One note. I have seen many storms over the years which put the deform. Band 25 to 50 miles west of the model depiction. This Will not be known till the storm is happening obviously. Take last March. EURO had the band further se and it ended up way up north by Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: I'm not a fan of the sref's but they jumped well west. How were the 6z GEFS? Any like the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: How were the 6z GEFS? Any like the NAM? Maybe 1 member. Here's the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: FWIW, this is bad logic. The Euro’s coarser resolution does tend to expose it to errors with big EC bombs within short time frames, and meso and regional models, with higher resolutions, are the exact kinds of models that might pick up on that. That doesn’t mean the Euro is off in this instance, just that it’s a coarsely-gridded global and this scenario is NOT where it is ‘the king’. The operational Euro uses 4DVAR, its resolution is very good for a global model. In fact, we have seen it school mesoscale models on a couple of occasions in the past. It’s extremely unlikely that the Euro is way off this close to the event. It’s had the same solution for tomorrow for several runs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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