UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I think this is the factor. The SS wave initialized stronger and farther west than 00z. This might have allowed the storm to buckle sooner and amplify. The better positioning and enlargement of the 250mb jet only poured fuel on the fire. Which is actually a possibility based on current obs... I would discount the crazy QPF but not track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Which is actually a possibility based on current obs... I would discount the crazy QPF but not track Cutting them in half would be improvement over past runs I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Storm never really came west itself from what I see, precip just explodes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 As a matter of fact it’s slightly east at our location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Well hopefully we weren’t namd and this starts to trend with other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Storm never really came west itself from what I see, precip just explodes It didn’t seem to take a wild jump east though like the 00Z did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: As a matter of fact it’s slightly east at our location At 36 hours it was definitely a tad west when I compared it on tropical tidbits. The precip shield though was way more west than the surface low had moved from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: It didn’t seem to take a wild jump east though like the 00Z did Yes took more NNE track towards the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Appears wetter on rgem on black and white maps comparing to 18z at same time frame. Not to the degree of 6z nam though. Also take with caution bc lack of detail and tired eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 HRRR any good? It shows the SLP way east off the coast of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Rgem def wetter... not nam like tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 For comparison: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Rgem def wetter... not nam like tho Very close to the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Winter Storm Watch in effect for NYC 3-6 inches possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Winter Storm Watch in effect for NYC 3-6 inches possible Well they had no choice after NAM showed a crippler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Very close to the nam No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The Nam showed this has tremendous upside if everything comes together perfectly. NWS expectations are low though, it's like the reverse of that epic miss east a couple years back. Globals won't matter going forward, they're pretty much set. It's all about the mesos and short term models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Hurricane Hunters are going to check this one out. A snip from OKX: Operational models have already shifted about 50 miles closer to LI with track of low pressure by late Thursday than 24 hrsago, with consensus track of a 955 to 960 mb low pressure system tracking over or just se of the 40/70 lat/lon benchmark. The exact phasing evolution will determine any additional forecast track adjustment, with GEFS/ECMWF/SREF still showing at least 150 miles of spread in members within 24-36 hrs. This range of potential shift would have significant implication on westward expanse of frontogenetically forced heavy snow banding, and strong to damaging wind fields with this intense low. In fact 06z NAM, has taken a significant shift westward from 00z with its frontogenetic forcing, showing potential for 1 ft+ snow across the entire area. For this reason, NHC will be doing a reconnaissance flight and several dropsondes this afternoon/evening off the Fl/SE US coast to better capture this phasing and convection latent heat release in the models. For now, based on above and consensus 00z operational/ensembletrack and uncertainty, expectation for snow to develop from S/SE to N/NW tonight as polar and southern stream jet energy phase. This will place the region under deep lift of right rear of 150kt jet streak, with subtropical moisture being fed by cold conveyor into the region. Then as phasing shortwave energy and rapidly deepening low pressure move up the coast tonight, LIand SE/SC CT are expected to fall under strong low- mid level forcing late tonight into Thu afternoon. Heavy snow banding is typically under and just to the NW of that. Also potential for enhanced updraft/convection through CSI as indicated by negativeepv above the frontogenetic forcing. SPC SREF/SPC HREF corroborate this through indicating a moderate to high potential for 1 per hour snowfall rates during this time, and possibly 2 inch per hour. Once again though, this banding could expand/shift westward by 50 or more miles, which is in the realm of QPF spread seen in GEFS and SREF, which have a reasonable range of 1/10 to 1 inch across NYC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Rgem def wetter... not nam like tho How does it compare to the previous rgem run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, psv88 said: No. Came west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The storm should conventionally follow the arctic boundry if the kicker wasn’t there, what a track it woulda been too Maybe the storm gets so strong, it kicks the kicker in the other direction ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6z HRDPS have over 6 inches of snow for NYC and more in LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Ace said: Very impressive shift in one run. Btw the 3km Nam just started coming out as well and looks like it might even be more amped that 0z. With the Jan 2016 the NAM caught onto the trend first. I wonder if it's these highly intense systems that the NAM does the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Verbatim that’s 2+ feet for everyone east of 87 with ratios 30 inch spot in central CT with 15:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Winter Storm Watch in effect for NYC 3-6 inches possible ..suffolk county now has a winter storm warning..and ,not that far away,Block Island has a blizzard warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdenzler Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 ..suffolk county now has a winter storm warning..and ,not that far away,Block Island has a blizzard warning.NWS write up mentions the possibility of hoisting a blizzard warning for Suffolk County.... If trends continue...They appeared to be floored by the 6z NAM.... and don't appear to be dismissing it given the spread of other meso models...They are taking a cautious approach....Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Bernie rayno stated NAM does have merit, also of note, there has been an unrelenting west trend over past 3 days, with no signs of stopping yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Nws took account the 6z Nam and are doing flight missions later near the SE coast to get a better idea of the phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I love how the other day Hudson County was the only county in Upton NWS region to get a WWA and now we're the only county to not get any kind of advisory or warning. #shafted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nws took account the 6z Nam and are doing flight missions later near the SE coast to get a better idea of the phasing. Boston had mentioned they had that scheduled since last night... not just cause of the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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