Enigma Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I still don't think the globals have a handle on this. The CMC gives Long Island 2.5 inches and just west of Boston 4.5 and thats with ratios. Thats ridiculous. Again, this is where pattern recognition and experience trump persistent model assessment. Respectfully, some of the younger, but knowledable mets/pros are having difficulty with this system due to access of too much data (yes, that's possible!) UkMet is very deliberate tonight and paints a very clear picture of where the CCB will set up. I like the Mount Holly accumulations for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 All western leaning now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Well, GEFS weren't crap for around NYC (gets 0.25"+ in a 6 hour period to Queens), and were better for most than before. At this point though the operationals are probably best to go with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Enigma said: Again, this is where pattern recognition and experience trump persistent model assessment. Respectfully, some of the younger, but knowledable mets/pros are having difficulty with this system due to access of too much data (yes, that's possible!) UkMet is very deliberate tonight and paints a very clear picture of where the CCB will set up. I like the Mount Holly accumulated for now. Ukmets been so erratic tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Gefs five eastern Long Island a good shot at being over 1" Le Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ukmets been so erratic tho Every model has been erratic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: All western leaning now Good signs IMO but I'd really like to see some solutions very soon go within the benchmark for big impacts around the city and especially just NW. We want the low to crawl NNE for as long as possible before being booted east such as the NAM shows too soon for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Knock on wood, but hopefully the trends from tonight continue through game time. I'm certainly no expert, but as the experts have said, even slight adjustments in the track of this monster can have huge effects on the accumulations to the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 From @InstantWeatherMaps Some monster hits in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 A lot of those are a pretty significant storm for the tri state area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: From @InstantWeatherMaps Some monster hits in there. Red flag to me when majority of previously dry gefs give 3-5 inches plus into NEPA and Hudson Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: A lot of those are a pretty significant storm for the tri state area. Yes. And our duds also seem to be SNE and ENE duds, looks like out of the members, largely if they get the good, we get the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 00z I'd like to order an e6, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Nibor said: I'd like to order an e6 please. Trust me..me too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: I'd like to order an e6 please. Why are the snow amounts over LI so low tho in these panels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, ILoveWinter said: Why are the snow amounts over LI so low tho in these panels? Maps think it’s water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, ILoveWinter said: Why are the snow amounts over LI so low tho in these panels? Poor resolution. It thinks LI is Atlantic water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yes. And our duds also seem to be SNE and ENE duds, looks like out of the members, largely if they get the good, we get the goods. Good point, the snowfall totals from the Delmarva through New England may be more uniform than we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, ILoveWinter said: Why are the snow amounts over LI so low tho in these panels? The resolution of the model has an issue with Long Island. Often counting it as the ocean. The totals would be higher there most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This is seriously one of the most bizarre storms to track. 30 hours until snow starts to fall and still a number of different solutions on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: This is seriously one of the most bizarre storms to track. 30 hours until snow starts to fall and still a number of different solutions on the table. Lots still up for grabs, it’s how these complex storms work....u knew there was no way that OTS model consistency was our solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Doubt it's worth much, but radar has been lighting up like an xmas tree in the south and GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Doubt it's worth much, but radar has been lighting up like an xmas tree in the south and GOM. A ferocious virga storm over LA and MS. Don’t use weenie radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Those GEFS outputs are extremely far west...EURO time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Drz1111 said: A ferocious virga storm over LA and MS. Don’t use weenie radar. That may be, but the reflection still exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: A ferocious virga storm over LA and MS. Don’t use weenie radar. Lake Charles LA is reporting light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Lake Charles LA is reporting light snow But Baton Rouge, Natchez, etc are not. There’s very little precip right now, as was modeled. Radar is quiet unless you use the fake WSI conposite weenie-dar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Lake Charles LA is reporting light snow Good bit of it is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Euro ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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