MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, The Plowsman said: 1 hour ago, kingbaus said: RGEM is further west The boot comes just after Hatteras The precip shield is stingy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I’d put the William Floyd as the line that really looks good east of. You and me will be watching the radar and nail biting over how far the real banding can make it (based on what I’ve seen so far). Surprises can happen, but lows that track east of the benchmark are rarely a big deal for the NYC area. I could see an outcome where the outer deform band can reach western LI and we see a few inches more than Manhattan. But our storm isn’t looking to be remotely like Boston’s. At least it doesn’t look like a completely in or out deal where it goes from 10” to nothing in 30 miles. Most models have at least some light snow totals reaching into NJ and even the Lehigh Valley. Just before kickoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Hi res rgem... we grasp as straws till there’s none left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Hi res rgem... we grasp as straws till there’s none left Pretty identical to 18z precip wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That likely won't be the final outcome. The 3k nam had the snowhole in north jerseyI noticed! ♀️ . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Pretty identical to 18z precip wise. Not to be mean... but that is the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If there was ever a storm to nowcast this is the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Not to be mean... but that is the 18z Lol. He made an oopsie and I didn't notice. Edit here is 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 No models showed precip like it is down south...a sign we’re digging more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: No models showed precip like it is down south...a sign we’re digging more? I was just about to say looked like the old snowy GGEMsolutions a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 UKmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I was just about to say looked like the old snowy GGEMsolutions a few days ago. Take away the 30ths snow and this may be pretty dead on balls accurate a long ways out at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If only there was a little blocking to slow this all down a little. This would be an absolute monster even for us if that was the case. The blocking is what saved Boxing Day from being a fish, which the models caught very late, in addition to Gulf convection pumping heights ahead of it. I'm not completely giving up on higher NYC totals yet, but my first guess earlier still looks good to me. And the cold coming behind this to me isn't being appreciated enough. It'll be absolutely brutal for a good 48 hour period Fri-Sat with 3-6" new snow on the ground even in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Earthlight This storm should provide a good test. The 3 km NAM is supposed to handle convection better than the 12 km version. It is an outlier in terms of its 0z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: That’s still a lot further west than it was..at one point it missed even NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If U showed me this randomly I’d say where do I sign up...what a tease this will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: If U showed me this randomly I’d say where do I sign up...what a tease this will be Awfully close to 3k NAM fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Apparently GFS ensembles went west at 0z. HRRR at this long lead time is very unreliable. I wouldn't take it seriously until late tomorrow, or honestly maybe ever given how awful it was in the early Dec storm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Awfully close to 3k NAM fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I still don't think the globals have a handle on this. The CMC gives Long Island 2.5 inches and just west of Boston 4.5 and thats with ratios. Thats ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Nice western spread now on gefs... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Chance of atleast .25 on gefs...I’d say that’s a good sign for western folks...2.5" is likely 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Gefs suck This doesnt include tonight’s 0z though right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nice western spread now on gefs... lol Well we take it. Lol this is so intriguing, so so so so so so close. So close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said: This doesnt include tonight’s 0z though right? No, they are even more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: This storm should provide a good test. The 3 km NAM is supposed to handle convection better than the 12 km version. It is an outlier in terms of its 0z solution. The latent heat release may also pump the ridge out ahead of it leading to additional westward ticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Chance of atleast .25 on gefs...I’d say that’s a good sign for western folks...2.5" is likely 3-5" I said this to myself before when the GFS was out to lunch. Is it nice to see the model trending westward? Absolutely. But it's hard to get on board with anything the model does at this point, as it is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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