Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I don’t buy for one second that PHL and DCA do better with this than NYC. If they get into the good activity we will too. In fact if they get decent snow most of us will probably get dumped on. Agreed. Just look where this originates. If they get it and BOS gets it, we get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I don’t buy for one second that PHL and DCA do better with this than NYC. If they get into the good activity we will too. In fact if they get decent snow most of us will probably get dumped on. Check out a storm from Dec of 2004....mid atlantic snow....SNE snow. Skipped us. Clearly a different animal...but none the less. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2005/27-Dec-04.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I don’t buy for one second that PHL and DCA do better with this than NYC. If they get into the good activity we will too. In fact if they get decent snow most of us will probably get dumped on. Agree 100 pct..if they get it down there, pretty sure we'll be fine..I mean this thing isn't exactly a hurricane with a massive wobble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: I don’t buy for one second that PHL and DCA do better with this than NYC. If they get into the good activity we will too. In fact if they get decent snow most of us will probably get dumped on. People have to start realizing that QPF is not always geographically/spacially continuous. QPF is due to lift and when the kicker S/W enters the stage, lift over the NYC metro is going to quickly move offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Gfs looks mostly the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Check out a storm from Dec of 2004....mid atlantic snow....SNE snow. Skipped us. The storm around Christmas that hit the Tidewater and eastern MA? That was nowhere near DC or Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Another small tick on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS has mixing issues into BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yeah definitely a bump up for western sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wow, between NAM (especially Hi-Res), RGEM, and now GFS...things are looking good for at least a 2-4"/3-6" deal for NYC...door open for more still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I sense much "nowcasting" in our near future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Old vs new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Do the specific cities make a difference?? The facts are, we could easily get squeezed as Enigma just pointed out. (I am not referring to you JM with my upcoming comment - this is just a general muse)This subforum is the best - people with limited education, limited experience and no understanding of the science state opinions as if they are facts because they open a government sponsored website and click links..funny. A storm that hits coastal Virginia and Mass would most likely miss nyc. That's not odd. Hitting dc and Boston but missing nyc is different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS increases in snowfall in NJ/PA & rain/mix concerns for E MA sort of extreme for one model run difference, did this have the recon data in it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Zelocita Weather said: GFS increases in snowfall in NJ/PA & rain/mix concerns for E MA sort of extreme for one model run difference, did this have the recon data in it? I don't think so - I believe the first recon flight is tomorrow evening, though I'm not too sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The humor I find in all of this...we *could have higher accums in S NJ than BOS and much of coastal NE due to higher ratios. Meanwhile, those on Cape Cod may see mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Enigma said: GFS has mixing issues into BOS. Especially the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: Wow, between NAM (especially Hi-Res), RGEM, and now GFS...things are looking good for at least a 2-4"/3-6" deal for NYC...door open for more still. I think that’s a good range to hope for in NYC. If people in the city are expecting 10 or 12” they’ll likely be disappointed. 0.4” liquid will hopefully be 5 or 6” snow with ratios. With the cold coming down after, it’ll be about as wintery as you’ll see in this area-tundra for a couple of days. I’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 CMC is similar to 12z. Alot of snow for NJ and some snow for here and new England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: CMC is similar to 12z. Alot of snow for and some snow for here and new England. Low is west, precip is down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Enigma said: The humor I find in all of this...we *could have higher accums in S NJ than BOS and much of coastal NE due to higher ratios. Meanwhile, those on Cape Cod may see mostly rain. Boston should be just northwest of the coastal front and therefore be in the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 A few days ago there was a debate in these forums whether NYC proper would ever see temps as low as -5 again in our lifetimes, well we just might approach that Sat and or Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, tmagan said: Boston should be just northwest of the coastal front and therefore be in the sweet spot. I definitely like Boston’s chances in this, the outer Cape will probably mix for a time. It’s the nature of these systems. There’ll be a lot of warm air wrapping in due to the tropical connection at the onset. The jackpot zone from this looks to be the Boston area, maybe just west and then possibly another further inland where deform banding can set up. That’s our hope too down here-that we can make the best out of ratios since we will be plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, ny10019 said: I sense much "nowcasting" in our near future Yes, we really won't know what will happen until we see the storm develop in real time. For me it comes down to how intense and how much precip will there be in the QPF shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: CMC is similar to 12z. Alot of snow for and some snow for here and new England. Dude, i work in a school; if school is called I'm happy. Everything else is gravy. Unlike the city, 3-6 shuts us down. And my back stays out of pain. Always like your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Yes, we really won't know what will happen until we see the storm develop in real time. For me it comes down to how intense and how much precip will there be in the QPF shield. Tomorrow should be an intetesting day of model watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Central NJ does better than LI this ggem run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 With respect to snowfall totals in Boston, New York City, and Washington, DC: Since 1950, there have been 44 January snowstorms that brought 6" or more snow to Boston (very likely this time around). The following is the breakdown for NYC: - Less than 4": 48% - Less than 2": 30% - No snow: 11% The closest to the ultimate "squeeze" storm: January 6-7, 1977: Boston: 13.8"; New York City: 2.8"; Washington, DC: 5.0" So, if these historic cases are representative, there's an 89% chance that NYC would see measurable snow, 70% that the City would see 2" or more; and 52% 4" or more. Given the modeling, I think the probability for 4" or more is lower than the suggested climatological probability, but it is still possible. My thinking from earlier today was 2"-4". Through the 0z GFS, I still think that is reasonable, but I have noted the 3 km NAM. I'll take another close look in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM is further westThe boot comes just after Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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