weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Precip shield is west and we get more precip on the run. Unimpressive,unless you are in Boston; like most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Again, east and weaker down south near SC might not be terrible for us. We just saw in the NAM run what happens when the low bombs and stacks too quickly. I’m more interested in the kicker wave behind the low, and when it comes in. That will determine if the heavy snow can make it into our area or if it gets kicked to New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, weatherlogix said: Unimpressive,unless you are in Boston; like most models. e Awful post..RGEM is great for Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 19 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The RGEM should help tell the tale soon. If it has a better outcome the NW bump may be onto something. If it’s lame like the 12k NAM, that’s what’s more believable. 12k is still good out here in eastern Nassau. I think the city is the big question mark for this one. Anywhere east of me (wantagh) looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, weatherlogix said: Unimpressive,unless you are in Boston; like most models. e Well yeah, we have to not expect a HECS every model run. RGEM is a solid realistic outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Awful post..RGEM is great for Long Island Great? Define great.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM looked pretty damn good to me CCB in the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: Great? Define great.... "A highly interesting winter weather phenomenon." This classifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Great? Define great 3 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Great? Define great.... Great as in over a foot on the eastern end, and 6-12 elsewhere ...u done now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: 12k is still good out here in eastern Nassau. I think the city is the big question mark for this one. Anywhere east of me (wantagh) looks good I’d put the William Floyd as the line that really looks good east of. You and me will be watching the radar and nail biting over how far the real banding can make it (based on what I’ve seen so far). Surprises can happen, but lows that track east of the benchmark are rarely a big deal for the NYC area. I could see an outcome where the outer deform band can reach western LI and we see a few inches more than Manhattan. But our storm isn’t looking to be remotely like Boston’s. At least it doesn’t look like a completely in or out deal where it goes from 10” to nothing in 30 miles. Most models have at least some light snow totals reaching into NJ and even the Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Well... so far 0z Models NAM: Upper level great, surface precip not so much HI-RES NAM: Crusher RGEM: Good snowstorm regionwide So far...so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The RGEM obviously hates Queens for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 946 mb in the Gulf of Maine (RGEM) is an extreme outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Status Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Great as in over a foot on the eastern end, and 6-12 elsewhere ...u done now? Gotta love the donut hole over 4 of the boros. Not bad with ratios though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Ratios should also be pretty good, I’d say 12-15:1 for most. So 0.4” liquid should mean 5-6” of snow. Easternmost LI might have strong winds reduce ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Great as in 2mdays a go this was a whiff...and RGEM gives Great as in over a foot on the eastern end, and 6-12 elsewhere ...u done now? we have different perspectives on the term "great". Going to 4 Phish shows is great. This is like a bunt single considering the magnitude of the system. It's good, not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM obviously hates Queens for some reason Lol. I'm surprised it's that low on QPF actually hourly maps looked pretty sexy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, A_Status said: Gotta love the donut hole over 4 of the boros. Not bad with ratios though. and most of Nassau (used to that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I’d put the William Floyd as the line that really looks good east of. You and me will be watching the radar and nail biting over how far the real banding can make it (based on what I’ve seen so far). Surprises can happen, but lows that track east of the benchmark are rarely a big deal for the NYC area. I could see an outcome where the outer deform band can reach western LI and we see a few inches more than Manhattan. But our storm isn’t looking to be remotely like Boston’s. At least it doesn’t look like a completely in or out deal where it goes from 10” to nothing in 30 miles. Most models have at least some light snow totals reaching into NJ and even the Lehigh Valley. This is purely speculative but based on what happened with that first December storm may be a play here. The best band wound up 150 miles NW of where it was forecast. I have this gut that we see a displaced heavier band. We will not know where that sets up until go time, but I can see it being somewhere near the city. as far as the main deform with the real crazy rates and totals I have always felt that’s out over the forks up into eastern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Here is the "great" map.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: This is purely speculative but based on what happened with that first December storm may be a play here. The best band wound up 150 miles NW of where it was forecast. I have this gut that we see a displaced heavier band. We will not know where that sets up until go time, but I can see it being somewhere near the city. as far as the main deform with the real crazy rates and totals I have always felt that’s out over the forks up into eastern New England Yes, all should keep the December storm in mind for where decent snows can fall. That was not an intense snowfall, but that significant band developed well west (PA vs. LI) of forecasted models the day of... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The RGEM continues to keep the low further west more north each run it seems. Hence those amounts this time closer to Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: This is purely speculative but based on what happened with that first December storm may be a play here. The best band wound up 150 miles NW of where it was forecast. I have this gut that we see a displaced heavier band. We will not know where that sets up until go time, but I can see it being somewhere near the city. as far as the main deform with the real crazy rates and totals I have always felt that’s out over the forks up into eastern New England To me if it completely covers the grass and blows/drifts with probably below zero temperatures over the weekend, how much more winter can you ask for in this area? I definitely think we’re getting that. The focus for this storm was always eastern New England and the question was how far west from there this can get. Typical of Nina winters with no blocking, our lousy longitude sometimes and the reason Boston averages 45” of snow a winter and NYC 28”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Check out the gfs initializing of the waves this run compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Here is the "great" map.... Seems strange to me..heavy snow amounts sw of us and ne of the area..I can understand either or but both in the same storm seems rare.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: if you sensationalize everything as great, how will you be able to separate average from what is actually great? this a massively powerful storm that will likely underachieve for most because of timing and other factors. The qualifications are relative to the storm being tracked. If it's always not great not being in the bullseye of a monster then why even track the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, tomcatct said: Seems strange to me..heavy snow amounts sw of us and ne of the area..I can understand either or but both in the same storm seems rare.. That likely won't be the final outcome. The 3k nam had the snowhole in north jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 At what point does the GFS become less reliable than the 3k NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Here is the "great" map.... I don’t buy for one second that PHL and DCA do better with this than NYC. If they get into the good activity we will too. In fact if they get decent snow most of us will probably get dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, tomcatct said: Seems strange to me..heavy snow amounts sw of us and ne of the area..I can understand either or but both in the same storm seems rare.. It's closing the gap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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