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Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

Rjay

By Rjay,
in New York City Metro

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tdenzler

tdenzler

Posted
Posted
Impressive sting jet developing south of low as it's passing east of OBX. Looks like the type we typically see off of Western Europe during the cold season.
 
hrdps_mslp_wind_us_43.thumb.png.eed949f09528368ebc997617538891fc.png
 
 
Incredible given it is non tropical... look at that signature... Mother nature can be awe inspiring.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

1 more shift by the 18z gefs and we will be in good shape.

It more or less gave us the QPF shield that a system like this warrants. The track was merely a tick further N&W and stronger. 

I don't see the track changing too much from what models show now but I do think we'll see a broader QPF shield with higher totals. 

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It more or less gave us the QPF shield that a system like this warrants. The track was merely a tick further N&W and stronger. 

I don't see the track changing too much from what models show now but I do think we'll see a broader QPF shield with higher totals. 

Hard to say ski, even the pros are struggling with this one. You're a little west of me. Could be a two incher for us or something bigger. Doesn't seem like we'll escape without something happening. Only question now for folks in our neck is whether this is a small event or bigger one, and no one can say that for sure yet. Not even the weather service.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Good to see them doing a recon flights.

Boston AFD: 

Uncertainty....

As mentioned above this storm is still 2 days away and the
average model error at this time range is 50-75 miles. Thus
this applies to the axis of heaviest snow and the location of
the rain-snow line. Hence adjustments in later forecasts are
expected. Will models continue to trend westward in later runs?
Given the amplitude of the long wave pattern, system developing
over the Gulf Stream and convection possibly building the
downstream ridge more than models are simulating all suggest an
eastward trend is unlikely with some additional westward
adjustment possible. We`ve been told recon flights will collect
data shortly and this will likely help improve model
performance.
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weatherbear5

weatherbear5

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Good to see them doing a recon flights.

Boston AFD: 


Uncertainty....

As mentioned above this storm is still 2 days away and the
average model error at this time range is 50-75 miles. Thus
this applies to the axis of heaviest snow and the location of
the rain-snow line. Hence adjustments in later forecasts are
expected. Will models continue to trend westward in later runs?
Given the amplitude of the long wave pattern, system developing
over the Gulf Stream and convection possibly building the
downstream ridge more than models are simulating all suggest an
eastward trend is unlikely with some additional westward
adjustment possible. We`ve been told recon flights will collect
data shortly and this will likely help improve model
performance.

That's great news. Hopefully that potential kicker s/w up in Canada is getting a bit of an extra look as well

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Rjay

Rjay

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Posted
2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Bob Chill in the MA forum pretty much nailed it.  The 18Z GFS may just be a head fake.  It more or less chose to pick the closest of the 3 lows to “build the system” around which caused everything to go west.  I’m not convinced it’s anything more than just another out to lunch GFS solution although this is often the window where the GFS starts trying to join the Euro/RGEM/UKMET 

Idk. Looks like it's been trending west all day.

2179b44b-3eba-4fc9-ac26-6d9f8bd83d9d.gif

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

If I had to guess right now I’d go with 1-3” 25 miles or more west of NYC and west of the Jersey shore, 3-5” in the city, 4-7” western half of LI and 7-10” eastern half. Hopefully the 0z runs later amp things up more. But to me it’s looking like an eastern New England crushing and west of there a decent glancing blow. 

That would be my guess too, except I don’t think any areas west of NYC see 3 inches, you’re being generous lol. There is going to be a major dry air/subsidence problem west of NYC. A very sharp cutoff with the precip shield is a given now, even 2 inches may be a stretch 25 miles+ west of NYC 

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HeadInTheClouds

HeadInTheClouds

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That would be my guess too, except I don’t think any areas west of NYC see 3 inches, you’re being generous lol. There is going to be a major dry air/subsidence problem west of NYC. A very sharp cutoff with the precip shield is a given now, even 2 inches may be a stretch 25 miles+ west of NYC 

It really wouldn't take much precip to see 3 inches of snow when ratios are 20:1. It's not out of the question just yet. 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That would be my guess too, except I don’t think any areas west of NYC see 3 inches, you’re being generous lol. There is going to be a major dry air/subsidence problem west of NYC. A very sharp cutoff with the precip shield is a given now, even 2 inches may be a stretch 25 miles+ west of NYC 

I agree with you here it’s like you came to your senses after that nonsense post last night.

i think the western cuttoff is abrupt. You could end up with 6” in the city and a dusting just west of Newark.

this thing is going to be so dynamic that someone’s getting puked on with the deform band. I’m sticking to my guns with that being over the twin forks. History does have a tendency of repeating itself though. In that case I would favor central Long Island 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I agree with you here it’s like you came to your senses after that nonsense post last night.

i think the western cuttoff is abrupt. You could end up with 6” in the city and a dusting just west of Newark.

this thing is going to be so dynamic that someone’s getting puked on with the deform band. I’m sticking to my guns with that being over the twin forks. History does have a tendency of repeating itself though. In that case I would favor central Long Island 

The models seem to be showing a Jan 2015-like super band that forms over eastern Suffolk up towards Boston. Makes sense to me given the evolution. 

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
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Posted
18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The models seem to be showing a Jan 2015-like super band that forms over eastern Suffolk up towards Boston. Makes sense to me given the evolution. 

I'd rather be on the NW fringes of what's modeled.  Countless times we've seen the deform band end up west of where it's modeled 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I'd rather be on the NW fringes of what's modeled.  Countless times we've seen the deform band end up west of where it's modeled 

If models edge NW more tonight, I’ll really be intrigued and think we could be in for a nice event where we are. If they settle as is or edge SE again, I think we’ll have a decent but mostly nuisance one. The upper air trends are interesting but that kicker has to weaken or back off a little. Banding often does make it west of where modeled though and ratios should be good for us so who knows. Gun to my head right now I’d go with the decent but nuisance event west of the William Floyd. 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If models edge NW more tonight, I’ll really be intrigued and think we could be in for a nice event where we are. If they settle as is or edge SE again, I think we’ll have a decent but mostly nuisance one. The upper air trends are interesting but that kicker has to weaken or back off a little. Banding often does make it west of where modeled though and ratios should be good for us so who knows. Gun to my head right now I’d go with the decent but nuisance event west of the William Floyd. 

We have seen that big Time this year. The first event in December was way way west of what was modeled. If we could score the ccb/deform in Nassau that would be eppppppppppppic. Send that bad boy up to Vermont while we are at it. And rain in Boston too!! (Now I’m asking for too much)

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