Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Where is there a 18Z GGEM? I've been doing this hobby since the late 90's....never heard of nor have seen an 18Z GGEM No idea. Rjay said there is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: No idea. Rjay said there is http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=gemglb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 more shift by the 18z gefs and we will be in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Wow what a powerhouse of a system, I'm glad the gfs got a clue but tremendous uncertainty continues. I'm leaning west because of the storm bombing out and the likelihood of the main low hanging near the 540 line near our climo east coast storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=gemglb So far east even misses Boston with the heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdenzler Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Impressive sting jet developing south of low as it's passing east of OBX. Looks like the type we typically see off of Western Europe during the cold season. Incredible given it is non tropical... look at that signature... Mother nature can be awe inspiring.Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Gefs mean way west with snow l, and it’s skewed by a few total misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 1 more shift by the 18z gefs and we will be in good shape. It more or less gave us the QPF shield that a system like this warrants. The track was merely a tick further N&W and stronger. I don't see the track changing too much from what models show now but I do think we'll see a broader QPF shield with higher totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 JMA gets .4” Hudson Valley and .5+ into NYC more eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: It more or less gave us the QPF shield that a system like this warrants. The track was merely a tick further N&W and stronger. I don't see the track changing too much from what models show now but I do think we'll see a broader QPF shield with higher totals. Hard to say ski, even the pros are struggling with this one. You're a little west of me. Could be a two incher for us or something bigger. Doesn't seem like we'll escape without something happening. Only question now for folks in our neck is whether this is a small event or bigger one, and no one can say that for sure yet. Not even the weather service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 1 more shift by the 18z gefs and we will be in good shape. this is a big shift west from 24 hours ago - with 15:1 or 20:1 ratios - you do the math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Good to see them doing a recon flights. Boston AFD: Uncertainty.... As mentioned above this storm is still 2 days away and the average model error at this time range is 50-75 miles. Thus this applies to the axis of heaviest snow and the location of the rain-snow line. Hence adjustments in later forecasts are expected. Will models continue to trend westward in later runs? Given the amplitude of the long wave pattern, system developing over the Gulf Stream and convection possibly building the downstream ridge more than models are simulating all suggest an eastward trend is unlikely with some additional westward adjustment possible. We`ve been told recon flights will collect data shortly and this will likely help improve model performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: Good to see them doing a recon flights. Boston AFD: Uncertainty.... As mentioned above this storm is still 2 days away and the average model error at this time range is 50-75 miles. Thus this applies to the axis of heaviest snow and the location of the rain-snow line. Hence adjustments in later forecasts are expected. Will models continue to trend westward in later runs? Given the amplitude of the long wave pattern, system developing over the Gulf Stream and convection possibly building the downstream ridge more than models are simulating all suggest an eastward trend is unlikely with some additional westward adjustment possible. We`ve been told recon flights will collect data shortly and this will likely help improve model performance. That's great news. Hopefully that potential kicker s/w up in Canada is getting a bit of an extra look as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Bob Chill in the MA forum pretty much nailed it. The 18Z GFS may just be a head fake. It more or less chose to pick the closest of the 3 lows to “build the system” around which caused everything to go west. I’m not convinced it’s anything more than just another out to lunch GFS solution although this is often the window where the GFS starts trying to join the Euro/RGEM/UKMET Idk. Looks like it's been trending west all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: 1 more shift by the 18z gefs and we will be in good shape. Last 12 runs of the gefs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: If I had to guess right now I’d go with 1-3” 25 miles or more west of NYC and west of the Jersey shore, 3-5” in the city, 4-7” western half of LI and 7-10” eastern half. Hopefully the 0z runs later amp things up more. But to me it’s looking like an eastern New England crushing and west of there a decent glancing blow. That would be my guess too, except I don’t think any areas west of NYC see 3 inches, you’re being generous lol. There is going to be a major dry air/subsidence problem west of NYC. A very sharp cutoff with the precip shield is a given now, even 2 inches may be a stretch 25 miles+ west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That would be my guess too, except I don’t think any areas west of NYC see 3 inches, you’re being generous lol. There is going to be a major dry air/subsidence problem west of NYC. A very sharp cutoff with the precip shield is a given now, even 2 inches may be a stretch 25 miles+ west of NYC It really wouldn't take much precip to see 3 inches of snow when ratios are 20:1. It's not out of the question just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It really wouldn't take much precip to see 3 inches of snow when ratios are 20:1. It's not out of the question just yet. .1 would get u 3” north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: .1 would get u 3” north and west Almost. NWS Albany expects 15-25:1 ratios. Doesn't take a whole lot of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That would be my guess too, except I don’t think any areas west of NYC see 3 inches, you’re being generous lol. There is going to be a major dry air/subsidence problem west of NYC. A very sharp cutoff with the precip shield is a given now, even 2 inches may be a stretch 25 miles+ west of NYC I agree with you here it’s like you came to your senses after that nonsense post last night. i think the western cuttoff is abrupt. You could end up with 6” in the city and a dusting just west of Newark. this thing is going to be so dynamic that someone’s getting puked on with the deform band. I’m sticking to my guns with that being over the twin forks. History does have a tendency of repeating itself though. In that case I would favor central Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Really cannot see the GFS start an end east trend. It is adjusting based on current data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I agree with you here it’s like you came to your senses after that nonsense post last night. i think the western cuttoff is abrupt. You could end up with 6” in the city and a dusting just west of Newark. this thing is going to be so dynamic that someone’s getting puked on with the deform band. I’m sticking to my guns with that being over the twin forks. History does have a tendency of repeating itself though. In that case I would favor central Long Island The models seem to be showing a Jan 2015-like super band that forms over eastern Suffolk up towards Boston. Makes sense to me given the evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The models seem to be showing a Jan 2015-like super band that forms over eastern Suffolk up towards Boston. Makes sense to me given the evolution. I'd rather be on the NW fringes of what's modeled. Countless times we've seen the deform band end up west of where it's modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Here is a look at the 18z GEFS individuals. Several members have NYC and areas just NW in the CCB: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/F048.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Hailstorm said: Here is a look at the 18z GEFS individuals. Several members have NYC and areas just NW in the CCB: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/F048.html What is CCB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: I'd rather be on the NW fringes of what's modeled. Countless times we've seen the deform band end up west of where it's modeled If models edge NW more tonight, I’ll really be intrigued and think we could be in for a nice event where we are. If they settle as is or edge SE again, I think we’ll have a decent but mostly nuisance one. The upper air trends are interesting but that kicker has to weaken or back off a little. Banding often does make it west of where modeled though and ratios should be good for us so who knows. Gun to my head right now I’d go with the decent but nuisance event west of the William Floyd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, mike1984 said: What is CCB? Cold conveyor belt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If models edge NW more tonight, I’ll really be intrigued and think we could be in for a nice event where we are. If they settle as is or edge SE again, I think we’ll have a decent but mostly nuisance one. The upper air trends are interesting but that kicker has to weaken or back off a little. Banding often does make it west of where modeled though and ratios should be good for us so who knows. Gun to my head right now I’d go with the decent but nuisance event west of the William Floyd. We have seen that big Time this year. The first event in December was way way west of what was modeled. If we could score the ccb/deform in Nassau that would be eppppppppppppic. Send that bad boy up to Vermont while we are at it. And rain in Boston too!! (Now I’m asking for too much) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Our pieces are showing up on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Cold conveyor belt What is the significance of being in that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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