SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mike1984 said: Why isn’t it phasing? Is that what we need to keep it west? It’s also a fine line between kicking/phasing. DT showed in his video yesterday in 2000 the incoming trof took a slightly further SSE motion vs ESE and it ultimately kicked the storm NNE up the coast. A phase doesn’t necessarily need to happen. A piece of energy like that can also move more southerly forcing the low east of it to move move north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 56 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This is a very similar to Juno Hope it doesn't verify But didn't we get some snows out of that one? This one doesn't look so great from what I gather here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 48 minutes ago, tomcatct said: Can't remember any other 2-3ft forecast before a storm..was one big one in late 90's i think that was in march or april that completely missed as well.. March 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Bob Chill in the MA forum pretty much nailed it. The 18Z GFS may just be a head fake. It more or less chose to pick the closest of the 3 lows to “build the system” around which caused everything to go west. I’m not convinced it’s anything more than just another out to lunch GFS solution although this is often the window where the GFS starts trying to join the Euro/RGEM/UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, tdenzler said: Kudos, very good analogy.... Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk Yeah but if it golfs like me you're gonna have an inland cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: This is a very similar to Juno Hope it doesn't verify Juno was a Miller B that re-developed 75 miles east of the model track. This is a miller A coming up the coast. Slightly different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 can already see our low-level circulation to the south of miami. there is likely to be a nice blowup of convection near and e/ne of that low during the overnight period...right over the gulf stream. edit: this gif is probably too big to loop as embedded, but if you click on it you can see what I'm talking about much more clearly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: Juno was a Miller B that re-developed 75 miles east of the model track. This is a miller A coming up the coast. Slightly different Other than snow gradient maybe being similar it’s not close. I’m not sure off hand of any system similar to this. 2/25/99 doesn’t count because it formed too far north and sort of backed in and there will be places in New England and probably here that see more snow than they did from that. I don’t remember anything that developed in the Bahamas and even produced big snow for Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: See how the trough is kicking the storm East instead of phasing it in? Think of it like a golf club hitting a golf ball. As per the 18z GFS initialization, this piece of energy that acts as a kicker was over the western Northern Territories at 18z. It gets sheared out and absolutely races southeastward just in time to kick the low eastward. For a bigger storm further west, we want that piece to be either slower so as to allow the southern S/W time to pump the heights north of it so it can head more due north or a combination of this s/w being faster and the southern wave being slower so it can phase with the southern piece and REALLY go crazy. I'd say there's a more likely chance of the former than the latter at this point. That's the best chance for most in this sub forum I believe... please feel free to correct me if I am wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Other than snow gradient maybe being similar it’s not close. I’m not sure off hand of any system similar to this. 2/25/99 doesn’t count because it formed too far north and sort of backed in and there will be places in New England and probably here that see more snow than they did from that. I don’t remember anything that developed in the Bahamas and even produced big snow for Long Island March 2009 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12Z Euro peaks at -7.1 SD MSLP east of Hatteras. The lower pressures when a bit north of there are still in the -6 to -7 range. This would be record breaking outside of hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Other than snow gradient maybe being similar it’s not close. I’m not sure off hand of any system similar to this. 2/25/99 doesn’t count because it formed too far north and sort of backed in and there will be places in New England and probably here that see more snow than they did from that. I don’t remember anything that developed in the Bahamas and even produced big snow for Long Island A or B, we are due for a bust in our favor for a change. just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 hrdps further west compared to 12z Run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Hi Res RGEM looks very similiar to regular 18Z. Tracks the low from about 100 miles east of Hatteras to 50 miles S of the Benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: hrdps further west compared to 12z Run. End of run so take it FWIW but still a huge shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Qpf so far with more falling at end of run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seawind Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 With this storm starting over the warm waters of the Bahamas, would it have any warm core characteristics to start with before transitioning to a cold core or cold core all the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 That's a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Strictly for fun..storm isn’t even cranking yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18z GGEM went way east. Like a lot have said on this forum will be a while before this is ironed out. May be up till the event. 18z GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18z gefs look great Further west than 12z gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: 18z GGEM went way east. Like a lot have said on this forum will be a while before this is ironed out. May be up till the event. 18z GEFS? They looked west again. The 0.5 line was in Nassau County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: 18z GGEM went way east. Like a lot have said on this forum will be a while before this is ironed out. May be up till the event. 18z GEFS? It did the reverse of what the GFS did. It picked the furthest east of the tons of different lows to center the storm around. The GFS seemed to center it around the furthest west one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: 18z GGEM went way east. Like a lot have said on this forum will be a while before this is ironed out. May be up till the event. 18z GEFS? There is no 18Z GGEM. And the 18Z RGEM didnt go that far east, if at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Strictly for fun..storm isn’t even cranking yet If I recall most of these models including the rgem were never really on board with the Jan 2015 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, weatherlogix said: There is no 18Z GGEM. And the 18Z RGEM went west Yes there is. We apparently discovered this yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Stormlover74 said: If I recall most of these models including the rgem were never really on board with the Jan 2015 storm. They werent. It was a very difficult setup with the northern stream being resolved better by the UKMET and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 If I had to guess right now I’d go with 1-3” 25 miles or more west of NYC and west of the Jersey shore, 3-5” in the city, 4-7” western half of LI and 7-10” eastern half. Hopefully the 0z runs later amp things up more. But to me it’s looking like an eastern New England crushing and west of there a decent glancing blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Yes there is. We apparently discovered this yesterday Where is there a 18Z GGEM? I've been doing this hobby since the late 90's....never heard of nor have seen an 18Z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Impressive sting jet developing south of low as it's passing east of OBX. Looks like the type we typically see off of Western Europe during the cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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