UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Thoughts on the possibility of a western band like we’ve seen in the past? I’ve seen countless strong storms, where a band is suppose to set over NYC or Hudson Valley, and Allentown to Albany ends up cashing in.. Xmas even this year is a good example. Albany was forecasted 1-2” from the mostly eastern extending storm, ended up having that band set up shop from Allentown to them, dropped 9.8” at Albany airport... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Gfs still has like 3 lows from what I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Looks like gfs is pretty far west at least for mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, Enigma said: March 2001 BTW...this is nothing like 2015. How come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Precip further west so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: You absolutely read my mind. The ice is pretty incredible now. On par with feb 15 in the great South Bay. 50mph northerly gusts are going to cause major ice damage to docks and piers on the north side of fire island. This is not something we have had to deal with ever as far as I know. Also any snow that falls on the ice will blow across the bay and burry the same areas. Similar to what buffalo saw during their epic storm in 77. More drifting off ice then actual falling snow This is more the type of situation that they normally experience on bigger lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18z GFS, CCB develops East of the black line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I’ll take my dusting to 1 it 2 on gfs and run like hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This is like Jan 1999, but with the opposite outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strgazr27 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Some really garbage posting again. The nams east throw in the towel. The nams west woooo hooo. if your going to get involved in the PBP please speak in certainly not what “you want to see”. Remember this forum is 200 miles east to west. So my storm may not be your storm. we have definitly seen things fall into place for a reasonable hit east of the city and a potentially major hit for our Far East friends. Which is why I argued for so long for a separate or sub forum for Nassau/Suffolk. This system being a perfect example. City guys crying miss when for us it’s a solid storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Comparison: 18z GFS 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 RIP E NC. Another shift like this and it's huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: RIP E NC. Another shift like this and it's huge. I’ll take 1 more shift like that plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The 18z GFS is sort of a compromise between the 12z Euro and the 12z NAM. 2-4" in NYC proper. Best dynamics and CCB miss to the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strgazr27 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 28 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: You absolutely read my mind. The ice is pretty incredible now. On par with feb 15 in the great South Bay. 50mph northerly gusts are going to cause major ice damage to docks and piers on the north side of fire island. This is not something we have had to deal with ever as far as I know. Also any snow that falls on the ice will blow across the bay and burry the same areas. Similar to what buffalo saw during their epic storm in 77. More drifting off ice then actual falling snow I drive with my dad from browns river in sayville over to Fire Island in 77-78. Scary as hell for a 12 yr old. Still something I won’t forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18z GFS inched further west again. Low just SE of benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18z RGEM at 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 18z GFS is sort of a compromise between the 12z Euro and the 12z NAM. 2-4" in NYC proper. Best dynamics and CCB miss to the East. It's pretty obvious the best dynamics are going to be east of city proper. The question still remains how far west precip shield gets. .10-.20 is what I am hoping for with 15-20:1 ratios in HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Did anyone put out the 18z 3k NAM or are those just twice a day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It's pretty obvious the best dynamics are going to be east of city proper. The question still remains how far west precip shield gets. .10-.20 is what I am hoping for with 15-20:1 ratios in HV. If the storm comes a bit further West the strong winds aloft will limit the ratios some. I wouldn't go much higher than 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 What is pulling this low east once it reaches Hatteras? It looks so weird verbatim headed due north until it reaches north Carolina. Then just jumps east. Looks funny. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Did anyone put out the 18z 3k NAM or are those just twice a day? yeah, it looks awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Why does the NAM and GFS always switch places in this time frame? Its odd but almost always happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Fields27 said: What is pulling this low east once it reaches Hatteras? It looks so weird verbatim headed due north until it reaches north Carolina. Then just jumps east. Looks funny. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk See how the trough is kicking the storm East instead of phasing it in? Think of it like a golf club hitting a golf ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 See how the trough is kicking the storm East instead of phasing it in? Think of it like a golf club hitting a golf ball. Gotcha, thanks. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: See how the trough is kicking the storm East instead of phasing it in? Think of it like a golf club hitting a golf ball. Why isn’t it phasing? Is that what we need to keep it west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mike1984 said: Why isn’t it phasing? Is that what we need to keep it west? It’s the lack of blocking upstream. All we need is for this to slow down just a tad then it would phase in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mike1984 said: Why isn’t it phasing? Is that what we need to keep it west? The southern low (our storm) needs to move up the coast faster, or the trough needs to dig deeper for it to properly phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdenzler Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 See how the trough is kicking the storm East instead of phasing it in? Think of it like a golf club hitting a golf ball. Kudos, very good analogy....Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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