NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The trough looks flatter on the NAM vs previous run and everything looks a tick East overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It also looks like that lead vort slowed down a bit, which would be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 the 250mb plot on the 18Z NAM shows quite a bit more of a kink (westward steering) at 24hrs comparred to 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM definitely looks east of 12z. Very flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The surface low formed East of the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, snow1 said: NAM definitely looks east of 12z. Very flat. Yup, that lead vort slowed down, but so did the trough. Should be a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Trough is a bit flatter but there is some strong convection on the west side. It might. translate to the surface similar to the RGEM in future frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Yup, that lead vort slowed down, but so did the trough. Should be a miss. The writing is on the wall with this one. The pattern is just too progressive for everything to slow down in time. At least I won’t have to stay up for tonight’s runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Yup, that lead vort slowed down, but so did the trough. Should be a miss. Looks like a stronger system tho down south lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yup, that lead vort slowed down, but so did the trough. Should be a miss. Agreed. I know its the NAM but we are getting close to game time and trends are not in our favor unless you live east of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 low actually jogs west between 33 and 36, to my eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Looks NW to me at Hr 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The next frame should pop Jersey pretty well. Looks very similar to the 12z RGEM to my amateur eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Stronger so far, ticks E one frame, W the other lol. H5 looks ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It isn't east its actually west and stronger up to 39hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: Looks NW to me at Hr 39 It is and also 5 mb stronger. By hour 45 the heaviest precip is further east than 12z however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Next two frames will be the main snow event frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 By 18z Thursday, the SLP position is Southeast of where it was on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Some really garbage posting again. The nams east throw in the towel. The nams west woooo hooo. if your going to get involved in the PBP please speak in certainly not what “you want to see”. Remember this forum is 200 miles east to west. So my storm may not be your storm. we have definitly seen things fall into place for a reasonable hit east of the city and a potentially major hit for our Far East friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Its stronger but ends up a bit east at the end. Good run for SE MASS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM says 4-8” of fluff for the I-95 east. Boston gets obliterated with a 2’ Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Some really garbage posting again. The nams east throw in the towel. The nams west woooo hooo. if your going to get involved in the PBP please speak in certainly not what “you want to see”. Remember this forum is 200 miles east to west. So my storm may not be your storm. we have definitly seen things fall into place for a reasonable hit east of the city and a potentially major hit for our Far East friends. Thanks - My rationale is that I've seen the big storms in my life, now, I hope there's enough snow for my kids to enjoy, no matter the amount. I can't keep up with manic reading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Models are trying to kick this more to the east once off Hatteras, I don't know if I buy that given how it's still bombing out. I think it'll end up further west over time. The Eastward correction isn't that surprising given what the globals showed, we're getting closer to a track consensus and the last couple Nam runs, especially 06z, were likely way too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Stronger storm this run. Perhaps with the storm being not as close to the coast, the wind field will not effect ratios as much. Do not forget about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The key is when the kicker arrives. The later it shunts the low ENE the better. That’s what prevented us from getting NAMd this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It isn't east its actually west and strongerWhen the LP is jumping all over the place on a model, especially a mesoscale one, you have to think about convective feedback. The algorithm is having trouble placing the LP system, so it's jumping around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The first relevant run for snowfall specifics and exact track may not come until 12z Wednesday. Even with the 12z runs tomorrow, we have seen how much 24 hr snowfall forecast have been off with major systems in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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