allgame830 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:23 AM, USCG RS said: On 1/4/2018 at 2:20 AM, Rtd208 said: Just throwing this out there as something to consider. Expand Initialization VS actual was very wrong.. Expand Yea I noticed at hour 1 the LP was positioned way to east of where it is currently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:14 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I have a feeling models are doing just fine at this point, they’re almost all converging on a solution...that dry air is legit Expand Dewpt. at KSWF went from +5 to +9 in 1 hour. Humidity up to 68% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:26 AM, hudsonvalley21 said: Dewpt. at KSWF went from +5 to +9 in 1 hour. Expand Will see I’m just always skeptical inland...I’ve drove in to 84 and had snow, with echoes plenty of times, then 5 miles north cloudy sky’s and not a flake... ‘’if your looking for something to hold onto Raleigh has widespread 6" reports..they were forecasted 0 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I don’t see how dry air is a huge problem inland-is it an annoyance sure, but they see less because the dynamics on the models stay east of them. Doesn’t make it a definite that banding can’t reach them but we have to see how the low tracks over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:16 AM, snowman19 said: It’s not even the LP position, it’s the insanely dry air and mid level confluence northwest of the city. It was clear as day that this was going to be a huge problem but those warnings were ignored by some. The NAM finally saw the subsidence. Have a good night everyone. Expand I checked the 0z nam. Looks about the same on my block. 2-4 inches. hearing 15-1 or 20-1 snow ratios. NAM smokes coastal NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 dont think virga will be issue on LI. Temp currently 25 with a DP of 16. Humidity up to 65% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:18 AM, Drz1111 said: 3KM NAM is odd. The precip in the comma head is all smeared out and there’s not much mid level lift and convergence. It’s almost as if there are two quasi separate storms - a Miller A that occludes before it can give us good rates, and then a Miller B that forms ENE of us and hits New England, and we’re left with no dynamics and just moderate snow. Expand Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:30 AM, Animal said: I checked the 0z nam. Looks about the same on my block. 2-4 inches. hearing 15-1 or 20-1 snow ratios. NAM smokes coastal NJ. Expand 12-15:1 is more realistic given winds, especially east. But that’s still 9 or 10” snow where there’s 0.75” liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:30 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Will see I’m just always skeptical inland...I’ve drove in to 84 and had snow, with echoes plenty of times, then 5 miles north cloudy sky’s and not a flake... ‘’if your looking for something to hold onto Raleigh has widespread 6" reports..they were forecasted 0 lol Expand Yup it will be interesting how this all pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:30 AM, Animal said: I checked the 0z nam. Looks about the same on my block. 2-4 inches. hearing 15-1 or 20-1 snow ratios. NAM smokes coastal NJ. Expand Being on the western edge of Raritan Bay across the kill from SI sometimes we get the bombs that hit the coast, like Boxing Day, other times it just barely misses us. I think both are realistic scenarios, though the misses happen more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:31 AM, mikem81 said: dont think virga will be issue on LI. Temp currently 25 with a DP of 16. Humidity up to 65% Expand It’s fairly dry below 8,000 feet on most soundings but I’ve seen worse before where there is dry air above that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:33 AM, jm1220 said: 12-15:1 is more realistic given winds, especially east. But that’s still 9 or 10” snow where there’s 0.75” liquid. Expand I thought the 0 z NAM was very solid for Long Island. We never had a chance of more than 4 inches out west of 287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:21 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Most will start as virga imo...but north and west of nyc will likely be virga for a long time if we don’t get heavier echoes...I’m 100% convinced, despite snow maps and nonsense showing 2-3 inches up this wat (84 corridor) we flurry entire duration Expand Idk, city and LI should snow fairly quickly. Snowed immediately in Cape May under light 15dBZ echoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 a mood video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:33 AM, hudsonvalley21 said: Yup it will be interesting how this all pans out.https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.phpCompletelydifferent than depiction at this time on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:37 AM, Ericjcrash said: Idk, city and LI should snow fairly quickly. Snowed immediately in Cape May under light 15dBZ echoes. Expand I agree I’m mostly referring to the inland folks looking to squeeze a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:38 AM, USCG RS said: https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Completelydifferent than depiction at this time on the NAM. Expand My sister says its been snowing west of Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:35 AM, Animal said: I thought the 0 z NAM was very solid for Long Island. We never had a chance of more than 4 inches out west of 287. Expand NAM cut back very slightly where I am but it’s still a very nice event for sure. So far the trends are good IMO for the city and east. West of the city we just have to see how far the bands get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:38 AM, USCG RS said: https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Completelydifferent than depiction at this time on the NAM. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:40 AM, EastonSN+ said: My sister says its been snowing west of Raleigh. Expand On 1/4/2018 at 2:38 AM, USCG RS said: https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Completelydifferent than depiction at this time on the NAM. Expand We need this to keep the strong push north before the ENE turn... So far so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 HRRR has steadily cut back totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:39 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I agree I’m mostly referring to the inland folks looking to squeeze a few Expand Breaking my heart.... We inland folks will get ours later this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 This is cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:35 AM, Animal said: I thought the 0 z NAM was very solid for Long Island. We never had a chance of more than 4 inches out west of 287. Expand My forecast from this afternoon looks solid for Morris/Sussex area. 2-4" S.E. Morris - 1-3" NW and 1-2" Sussex. Big winners so to speak will be immediate coastal NJ (6-10") and central and eastern LI (5-7 Nassau - 7-12" Suffolk) 4-6" NYC and immediate NE NJ burbs. NW of I95 amounts will taper quickly and north of 78 and west of 287 1-4" from NW to SE look like reasonable numbers. Dry air initially (especially NW) is going to eat into QPF and ratios on AVERAGE will be at best 12:1 most places. Storm will be bombing out but it will be moving fast and banding not likely to save the day for inland portions of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 This looks like the type of storm where Brooklyn/ Queens might do better than Bronx/ Manhattan due to BK and Queens being further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:43 AM, White Gorilla said: Breaking my heart.... We inland folks will get ours later this season Expand We were never expected to get a lot. 2-4 looks like a good call. With 20:1 ratios it doesn't take much QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:43 AM, Enigma said: HRRR has steadily cut back totals. Expand I find the HRRR unreliable past hour 10. That being said who knows where the outer band sets up. Could be further east or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:43 AM, Enigma said: HRRR has steadily cut back totals. Expand Cut back for everyone including NE. Only place it didn't was VA tidewater. Seems quite odd that even most portions of NE (including further from coast) and LI would not exceed 10 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 After how the HRRR performed on the 12/9 storm I don’t trust it much. It kept ignoring the heavy band that set up over NJ for hours and tried to focus the snow over me, when I ended up with half of what some of those places got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:49 AM, ILoveWinter said: Cut back for everyone including NE. Only place it didn't was VA tidewater. Seems quite odd that even most portions of NE (including further from coast) and LI would not exceed 10 or so. Expand I wouldnt pay a lot of attention to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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