UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Last 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Nam def cut back totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3k is a disaster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:09 AM, Blizzard-on-GFS said: 3k is a disaster... Expand LI gets crushed on the hi res nam Cutback for the NYC area but still a nice storm on the Hi Res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 1:56 AM, Cheticus said: If I remember correctly, my Sophomore year of HS a winter storm on MLK Day 1994 in Westchester gave us a mixed bag of snow and sleet and freezing rain. It went below zero the next few days at night and the salt on the roads didn't work- I remember going out with my Mom and the roads were like dirt roads the ice was so bad. We were off the whole week! Expand Yes the ice was epic. Seen nothing like it before or since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3k Nam now takes the LP well east of prev runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3K runs east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:02 AM, Drz1111 said: Some idiot is looking at raw QPF output on the NAM, which is like judging how attractive a woman is by the shape of her elbows. Expand LOL -- but also correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Honestly I could care less what the models show at this point as nowcasting has become much more important from this point forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:10 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 3k Nam now takes the LP well east of prev runs Expand Dry air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:09 AM, Snow88 said: LI gets crushed on the hi res nam Cutback for the NYC area but still a nice storm on the Hi Res Expand Should we be bothered with models any longer? The storm is already happening. If we have to wait for a couple hours before the storm starts for accurate info, what's the point of tracking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 how reliable is the 3k at this point in time ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:11 AM, Rtd208 said: Honestly I could care less what the models show at this point as nowcasting has become much more important from this point forward. Expand Radar looks very impressive with the band shooting up here Looks further west than what the models show it. I think the models might be struggling with the western extent of the precip shield. We might have some surprises tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:11 AM, weatherpruf said: Should we be bothered with models any longer? The storm is already happening. If we have to wait for a couple hours before the storm starts for accurate info, what's the point of tracking? Expand Not at all except for the Rap and HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:12 AM, Snow88 said: Radar looks very impressive with the band shooting up here Looks further west than what the models show it. I think the models might be struggling with the western extent of the precip shield. We might have some surprises tomorrow. Expand I have a feeling models are doing just fine at this point, they’re almost all converging on a solution...that dry air is legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:12 AM, Snow88 said: Radar looks very impressive with the band shooting up here Looks further west than what the models show it. I think the models might be struggling with the western extent of the precip shield. We might have some surprises tomorrow. Expand That is really what some mets are saying, while there will be sharp cutoffs, they believe there will be decent snows into eastern NJ, more at the shore, maybe NNJ north of Essex won't do as well. we'll see. Most schools are canceled already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:13 AM, Snow88 said: Not at all except for the Rap and HRRR Expand Hrrr looks like Nam imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:13 AM, Snow88 said: Not at all except for the Rap and HRRR Expand Little faith with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3K NAM run is bizarre. Ens up with almost identical QPF on Long Island as 12K NAM, which makes no sense given what it just did. May be chasing too much convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:10 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 3k Nam now takes the LP well east of prev runs Expand It’s not even the LP position, it’s the insanely dry air and mid level confluence northwest of the city. It was clear as day that this was going to be a huge problem but those warnings were ignored by some. The NAM finally saw the subsidence. Have a good night everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:14 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I have a feeling models are doing just fine at this point, they’re almost all converging on a solution...that dry air is legit Expand Where are you thinking it will be most pronounced ( I don't discount dry air I have seen it happen, Dec 2009....Jan 89 and so on..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3KM NAM is odd. The precip in the comma head is all smeared out and there’s not much mid level lift and convergence. It’s almost as if there are two quasi separate storms - a Miller A that occludes before it can give us good rates, and then a Miller B that forms ENE of us and hits New England, and we’re left with no dynamics and just moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:16 AM, snowman19 said: It’s not even the LP position, it’s the insanely dry air and mid level confluence northwest of the city. It was clear as day that this was going to be a huge problem but those warnings were ignored by some. The NAM finally saw the subsidence. Have a good night everyone. Expand Take a look. Amount are slightly higher NW of the City this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I mean, the well inland guys are right that whoever ends up on the NW side of the ‘last’ band might get a dusting while someone 10miles to their SW gets a foot. But it’s an open question as to where that band sets up (and in the 3KM NAM view of the world, there is no band) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ It might be snowing by midnight in NYC area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just throwing this out there as something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:17 AM, weatherpruf said: Where are you thinking it will be most pronounced ( I don't discount dry air I have seen it happen, Dec 2009....Jan 89 and so on..... Expand Most will start as virga imo...but north and west of nyc will likely be virga for a long time if we don’t get heavier echoes...I’m 100% convinced, despite snow maps and nonsense showing 2-3 inches up this wat (84 corridor) we flurry entire duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:20 AM, Rtd208 said: Just throwing this out there as something to consider. Initialization VS actual was very wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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