weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 8:21 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam still cut totals down pretty big Expand yup - anywhere west of the Nassau/Suffolk border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 8:23 PM, jm1220 said: It’s moving towards other models. I was intrigued somewhat by that 6z run, but it was clear soon after it was a weenie NAM’d run. Expand Considering it was showing widespread 12"+ amounts, I'd say this is more realistic and alignd with the other models. Good call by NWS for the new warnings, even blizzard warnings for the coast. Let's not forget we are dealing with a 950-960 mb storm, an extremely rare anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Upton and I agree completely. They're more bullish though. 10"? Nah. 8" certainly possible in Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 anybody paying attention? 67 mph sustained wind at buoy 41029 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Philly and immediate burbs under WSW for 5-7" URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 317 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...High Impact Storm including the aftermath of wind driven record cold on its way to our area... ...A rapidly intensifying coastal storm will produce significant snowfall and strong winds tonight through Thursday... NJZ012-015>019-PAZ070-071-104-106-041000- /O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.180104T0200Z-180105T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0001.180104T0200Z-180105T0000Z/ Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington- Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of New Brunswick, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Media, Philadelphia, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 317 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Tree branches could fall as well. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches are expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Scattered power outages could develop Thursday and Friday which would force considerable hardship where heat would not be available. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 8:29 PM, Sophisticated Skeptic said: anybody paying attention? 67 mph sustained wind at buoy 41029 right now. Expand Saw that, not sure what to make of it, but looks like it's in convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Upton’s more aggressive than I thought it would be for the city. I think 6 or 8” in Central Park is unlikely, but we’ll see. Hopefully the deform bands can reach a little further west than modeled. If I had to guess I’d say Central Park gets 4 or 5” but JFK might make it to 8” and should see 6”. 10” or greater I think will be limited to east of the William Floyd Parkway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Absolutely classic 500mb look here. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 hummmm - these arent close. Anyone have any idea what is hitting the ground in central NC? 3K Nam from 18z at 21Z: Current radar: Edit: It wont let me post my weathertap radar snapshot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 8:33 PM, weatherlogix said: hummmm - these arent close. Anyone have any idea what is hitting the ground in central NC? 3K Nam from 18z at 21Z: Current radar: Expand Judging by obs there is a lot of Virga down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Mods, are we going to do a separate Obs thread for this storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 8:34 PM, Sn0waddict said: Judging by obs there is a lot of Virga down there. Expand Yeah, but those echoes still exist. And it did snow briefly in Norfolk VA, with a quick little echo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 8:34 PM, Rtd208 said: Mods, are we going to do a separate Obs thread for this storm?? Expand Yea but not until later tnite i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 8:36 PM, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, but those echoes still exist. And it did snow briefly in Norfolk VA, with a quick little echo Expand Heavy snow being reported in Charleston, SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 8:32 PM, jm1220 said: Upton’s more aggressive than I thought it would be for the city. I think 6 or 8” in Central Park is unlikely, but we’ll see. Hopefully the deform bands can reach a little further west than modeled. If I had to guess I’d say Central Park gets 4 or 5” but JFK might make it to 8” and should see 6”. 10” or greater I think will be limited to east of the William Floyd Parkway. Expand Every model has at least 5 inches for the city so 4-8 is a good call right now un less the his res models are correct. Nam has 6-10 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 8:36 PM, BxEngine said: Yea but not until later tnite i think Expand https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50762-14-mega-bomb-obs/ Southern obs are already being posted. Might as well separate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18z RGEM based on Black and White maps looks similar to the rest of the guidance with regards to track, just outside the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bucky555 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 All that I am reading reminds me of past storms that over performed . Every six hours it gets a little worse. A very general, non technical impression I have. So I am expecting the unexpected, on this one. Very entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 8:38 PM, Stormlover74 said: Heavy snow being reported in Charleston, SC Expand Traffic Cam from Route 17, near Charleston. Snow covered roads and street poles shaking in the wind! Pretty amazing. Link:https://www.facebook.com/CarolinaWeatherGroup/videos/1580425581994655/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 8:21 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam still cut totals down pretty big Expand Yea chopped me down from 21” to 18”. **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 8:52 PM, psv88 said: Yea chopped me down from 21” to 18”. **** Expand Cookies Anyone lol... we need a cookie over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 8:29 PM, hazwoper said: Philly and immediate burbs under WSW for 5-7" URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 317 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...High Impact Storm including the aftermath of wind driven record cold on its way to our area... ...A rapidly intensifying coastal storm will produce significant snowfall and strong winds tonight through Thursday... NJZ012-015>019-PAZ070-071-104-106-041000- /O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.180104T0200Z-180105T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0001.180104T0200Z-180105T0000Z/ Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington- Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of New Brunswick, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Media, Philadelphia, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 317 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Tree branches could fall as well. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches are expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Scattered power outages could develop Thursday and Friday which would force considerable hardship where heat would not be available. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. $$ Expand Holla "Lower Bucks County" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 When recons Flights anyone know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 IBMs thunder blizzardgod or whatever the Fu*^ it’s called might have nailed it first storm lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 8:59 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: When recons Flights anyone know Expand Unsure but I read somewhere that the data will be incorporated for 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Will Nassau County and NYC join Suffolk and coastal NJ with a Blizzard Warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 9:01 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: IBMs thunder blizzardgod or whatever the Fu*^ it’s called might have nailed it first storm lmao Expand You think it's onto something? Idk how it did today down south...but something's off. Most models seem to have initialized too far east, I know that sounds weeniesh but just look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 9:02 PM, sferic said: Will Nassau County and NYC join Suffolk and coastal NJ with a Blizzard Warning? Expand Unless it' abundantly clear the 3k/deep thunder weenie brigade are right with low placement, I doubt it. Maybe Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 9:01 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: IBMs thunder blizzardgod or whatever the Fu*^ it’s called might have nailed it first storm lmao Expand this guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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