UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:28 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Is there anyone in Morris County? Trying to figure out what’s the best bet. 1”?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wow, UKMET impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:28 PM, donsutherland1 said: Current UKMET run: Expand WOw, that was a nice bump up from the City on east. Maybe a little more aggressive than GFS on precip, 20mm=about 0.78" liquid, 15mm=about 0.58" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 How's the current LP off the coast of Florida compared to what models are initializing with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:31 PM, North and West said: Is there anyone in Morris County? Trying to figure out what’s the best bet. 1”? . Expand The 12z GFS had 0.32" qpf for MMU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:31 PM, North and West said: Is there anyone in Morris County? Trying to figure out what’s the best bet. 1”? . Expand This is just thru 18Z tomorrow. There is more after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick5892 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:31 PM, North and West said: Is there anyone in Morris County? Trying to figure out what’s the best bet. 1”? . Expand Moved to denville nj this year. I think we can do a bit better than that. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Pretty obvious WSW needs to be hoisted for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:38 PM, nick5892 said: Moved to denville nj this year. I think we can do a bit better than that. We shall see Expand Its nice seeing the Ukie going 3-6" west of the city even back to the PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 With ratios I’m liking the call of 5-10” for I-95 east with 8-14” for Long Island and the south Jersey barrier islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:38 PM, nick5892 said: Moved to denville nj this year. I think we can do a bit better than that. We shall see Expand Based off 12Z model consensus so far this morning (EURO not yet arrived) I'd forecast 2-3" southeast Morris tapering to 1-2" NW on the Sussex border where I am. Only NAM suggests you go above those numbers for Morris County. I'll give the NAM its due in that it nailed the Jan 2016 event ahead of other guidance but even a blind squirrel can find a nut once and a while. Ratios 10-1 on average. Winds will assure most of that. Temp profile marginal for 12-1. Storm is also moving quickly along and banding likely won't save the day this far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:45 PM, Stormlover74 said: Its nice seeing the Ukie going 3-6" west of the city even back to the PA border. Expand I think its a bit too wet in E PA. I noticed that because I was looking at forecasts for areas near MDT and ABE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:38 PM, nick5892 said: Moved to denville nj this year. I think we can do a bit better than that. We shall see You’re just west of me! Nice downtown.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:42 PM, Ericjcrash said: Pretty obvious WSW needs to be hoisted for NYC. Expand ...I wonder if the NWS will hoist blizzard warning for suffolk county?..if they do it might be east of the william floyd..still have winter storm warning..no change yet..their discussion is from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:46 PM, MANDA said: Based off 12Z model consensus so far this morning (EURO not yet arrived) I'd forecast 2-3" southeast Morris tapering to 1-2" NW on the Sussex border where I am. Only NAM suggests you go above those numbers for Morris County. I'll give the NAM its due in that it nailed the Jan 2016 event ahead of other guidance but even a blind squirrel can find a nut once and a while. Ratios 10-1 on average. Winds will assure most of that. Temp profile marginal for 12-1. Storm is also moving quickly along and banding likely won't save the day this far west. My kids will happily shovel that if it pans out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:46 PM, MANDA said: Based off 12Z model consensus so far this morning (EURO not yet arrived) I'd forecast 2-3" southeast Morris tapering to 1-2" NW on the Sussex border where I am. Only NAM suggests you go above those numbers for Morris County. I'll give the NAM its due in that it nailed the Jan 2016 event ahead of other guidance but even a blind squirrel can find a nut once and a while. Ratios 10-1 on average. Winds will assure most of that. Temp profile marginal for 12-1. Storm is also moving quickly along and banding likely won't save the day this far west. Expand They should be higher than that even with some wind. NWS Albany is expecting 15-20:1 by me in Poughkeepsie area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:49 PM, tim said: ...I wonder if the NWS will hoist blizzard warning for suffolk county?..if they do it might be east of the william floyd..still have winter storm warning..no change yet..their discussion is from this morning. Expand They won't hoist it until it is actually happening, as per new guidelines they put out this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:53 PM, Wannabehippie said: They won't hoist it until it is actually happening, as per new guidelines they put out this year. Expand Tell that to Taunton... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:49 PM, tim said: ...I wonder if the NWS will hoist blizzard warning for suffolk county?..if they do it might be east of the william floyd..still have winter storm warning..no change yet..their discussion is from this morning. Expand Based on the new boundary’s expect a blizzard warning for SE Suffolk and NE Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 4:23 PM, Snow88 said: Right now I would go with 4-8 for NYC and 6-12 for LIN for CNJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:46 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I think its a bit too wet in E PA. I noticed that because I was looking at forecasts for areas near MDT and ABE Expand With the very cold temps in northeastern Pa ratios will be much higher than the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'd put this as a high end advisory for at least the northwestern parts of NYC, 6"+ is too uncertain for most of the city. Southeast Queens though is looking like it might make it to 6 or 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:55 PM, mikem81 said: EURO is out to 24. Expand Position and strength are identical to the 12z yesterday run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Blizzard warning for VA beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 4:53 PM, BlizzardNYC said: Anyone know when flight recon data will be added to models??Tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:58 PM, Sn0waddict said: Posistion and strength are identical to the 12z yesterday run. Expand Yes, but more importantly heights are more backed north of the system. This would, at least in theory, aim its trajectory less eastward and more NNE'ward... will have to see how it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 5:57 PM, jm1220 said: I'd put this as a high end advisory for at least the northwestern parts of NYC, 6"+ is too uncertain for most of the city. Southeast Queens though is looking like it might make it to 6 or 7". Expand Have to factor in winds too. Close enough on precip, especially Queens 6" should be a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12z Euro totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 6:03 PM, NJwx85 said: 12z Euro totals Expand Ouch wasn't expecting that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.