USCG RS Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 8:39 PM, bluewave said: The first relevant run for snowfall specifics and exact track may not come until 12z Wednesday. Even with the 12z runs tomorrow, we have seen how much 24 hr snowfall forecast have been off with major systems in recent years.This has been a concern of mine from the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 8:51 PM, USCG RS said: On 1/2/2018 at 8:39 PM, bluewave said: The first relevant run for snowfall specifics and exact track may not come until 12z Wednesday. Even with the 12z runs tomorrow, we have seen how much 24 hr snowfall forecast have been off with major systems in recent years. Expand This has been a concern of mine from the beginning. Expand you can say that again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 8:53 PM, WeatherGod said: you can say that again Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Rgem appears stronger compared to 6z on black and white maps, location difficult to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 8:51 PM, USCG RS said: On 1/2/2018 at 8:39 PM, bluewave said: The first relevant run for snowfall specifics and exact track may not come until 12z Wednesday. Even with the 12z runs tomorrow, we have seen how much 24 hr snowfall forecast have been off with major systems in recent years. Expand This has been a concern of mine from the beginning. Expand And this system has more moving parts than we typically see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 RGEM 18Z. LP slightly NW through hour 36. Precip shield looks similiar though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18z NAM has 50+ mph wind gusts the entire length of LI from late morning into the afternoon on Thursday...approaching 80 mph at MTP! I don't care if it's sunny and 70 in NJ, calling this run a whiff or a miss is psychotic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The other thing to consider with the strong winds is the ice build up on the large LI bays. There could be quite a bit of dock damage with the ice getting all blown in the same direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 9:13 PM, NorthShoreWx said: 18z NAM has 50+ mph wind gusts the entire length of LI from late morning into the afternoon on Thursday...approaching 80 mph at MTP! I don't care if it's sunny and 70 in NJ, calling this run a whiff or a miss is psychotic. Expand Major differences this storm between the Eastern and Western halves of the sub forum. With this setup though, the storm could be tucked well inside the benchmark and most of Long Island would still be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 RGEM would have been even better if it didnt make the right turn once it reaches the latitude of Cape May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This is a very similar to Juno Hope it doesn't verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 9:15 PM, bluewave said: The other thing to consider with the strong winds is the ice build up on the large LI bays. There could be quite a bit of dock damage with the ice getting all blown in the same direction. Expand You absolutely read my mind. The ice is pretty incredible now. On par with feb 15 in the great South Bay. 50mph northerly gusts are going to cause major ice damage to docks and piers on the north side of fire island. This is not something we have had to deal with ever as far as I know. Also any snow that falls on the ice will blow across the bay and burry the same areas. Similar to what buffalo saw during their epic storm in 77. More drifting off ice then actual falling snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Manasquan is preparing for a moderate tidal flooding event for Thursday 9 am high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 9:19 PM, Snow88 said: This is a very similar to Juno Hope it doesn't verify Expand The park had 10” instead of the forecast 24-30”. I’ll take 10” and be stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 9:19 PM, Snow88 said: This is a very similar to Juno Hope it doesn't verify Expand You mean January 2015 correct? Been saying that since this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 9:21 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The park had 10” instead of the forecast 24-30”. I’ll take 10” and be stoked. Expand 20 miles NW of the city had 0.00" Remember this beauty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 9:22 PM, NJwx85 said: You mean January 2015 correct? Been saying that since this morning. Expand Yes 2015 Lesser version unless it shifts more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 9:23 PM, NJwx85 said: 20 miles NW of the city had 0.00" Remember this beauty from that morning? Expand Got 10 inches from this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 9:21 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The park had 10” instead of the forecast 24-30”. I’ll take 10” and be stoked. Expand Central park had 9.8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 9:17 PM, NJwx85 said: Major differences this storm between the Eastern and Western halves of the sub forum. With this setup though, the storm could be tucked well inside the benchmark and most of Long Island would still be all snow. Expand That is precisely why I called out that the high winds forecasted apply to LI, rather than a blanket statement that the storm is a miss or a hit. I'm not committing on snowfall totals. Right, wrong, or indifferent the models are not done swinging around and I am quite certain that I lack the synoptic smarts to go toe to toe with a modern computer model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 9:23 PM, NJwx85 said: 20 miles NW of the city had 0.00" Remember this beauty? Expand You take that down, you monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 9:23 PM, NJwx85 said: 20 miles NW of the city had 0.00" Remember this beauty? Expand I thought we perma banned that image from this forum ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 9:23 PM, NJwx85 said: 20 miles NW of the city had 0.00" Remember this beauty from that morning? Expand Can't remember any other 2-3ft forecast before a storm..was one big one in late 90's i think that was in march or april that completely missed as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 9:25 PM, WeatherFeen2000 said: Central park had 9.8 inches Expand They were saved late by the incoming upper trof from the west if I remember right. Up until 8-9pm it looked like a major bust and that saved it to at least be a significant event. A few systems have had lows pass fairly far out east and we get saved a bit from the upper trof or low from the west with expansion or further development of the snow shield despite being too far south and west to be aided by the phase or capture of the main low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 9:30 PM, tomcatct said: Can't remember any other 2-3ft forecast before a storm..was one big one in late 90's i think that was in march or april that completely missed as well.. Expand March 2001 BTW...this is nothing like 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 9:25 PM, Snow88 said: Got 10 inches from this storm Expand Consider yourself lucky, and I hate you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Remember this epic Euro bust? I think this was the storm that changed everyones opinion about the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Or how about this epic bust by the SREF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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