Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I can extrapolate precip making it west of the bay with these 2 panels comparing low placement with the 0z run... http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: anyone have that link to the ukmet that's upside down? Sure. It has a storm and looks west of yesterday's 12z run, but I can't tell much more than that. Then again, I can't read the black and white CMC maps either. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?archive=0&mode=&ech=120&nh=1&carte=1021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 UKIE precip is pretty anemic in DC based on the panels...less than 1 mm I’d say adding up the three panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: UKIE precip is pretty anemic in DC based on the panels...less than 1 mm I’d say adding up the three panels. yep http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&mode=latest&map=na&lang=en&hh=000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: yep http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&mode=latest&map=na&lang=en&hh=000 So the low takes a better track and we get less precip. lol. Oh the fun we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: yep http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&mode=latest&map=na&lang=en&hh=000 Stout looking storm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 TREND = FRIEND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 these west ticks arent really doing it...we need a tick that brings that right off Outer Banks. And even then...we will probably still be screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: So the low takes a better track and we get less precip. lol. Oh the fun we have. you need to be more creative in devising ways for us to get screwed....maybe if you had the mind of a lawyer that would help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: So the low takes a better track and we get less precip. lol. Oh the fun we have. As some have pointed out on twitter The UKMET and the other non high res models may not be able to pick up on the 250mb jet enhancing that precip further west of the low. The UKMET did move the precip further west over LI and SNE but it seemed further east for the Delmarva which is odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The high-res RGEM came in drier than the RGEM and GGEM. Still gets about 0.15" qpf to Baltimore and 0.2" to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Gotta say, I like some have tried to check out.....but d@mn models have me given em the hairy eyeball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This does have a January 2000 feel to it. We will probably get the shaft, but I'm imagining Sue Palka coming on the news at 10PM tomorrow night saying anyone who went to bed early will be in for a surprise. Maybe the Euro has a surprise for us so I'm staying tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I'm hoping for a reverse-bust of the March 2017 debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: these west ticks arent really doing it...we need a tick that brings that right off Outer Banks. And even then...we will probably still be screwed We'll turn to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, cae said: The high-res RGEM came in drier than the RGEM and GGEM. Still gets about 0.15" qpf to Baltimore and 0.2" to DC. Better hope for 40:1 ratios I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: This does have a January 2000 feel to it. We will probably get the shaft, but I'm imagining Sue Palka coming on the news at 10PM tomorrow night saying anyone who went to bed early will be in for a surprise. Maybe the Euro has a surprise for us so I'm staying tuned who had Jan 2000 for their weenie bingo card? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, mappy said: who had Jan 2000 for their weenie bingo card? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 There is a pretty healthy low just north of South America that is forming and moving NW. It will influence our system to move north and west and this will be a hit for our area. You heard it here 2nd or 3rd. :-) http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 oy. this map. cartographic-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 also. this board is having some issues lately. yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I think a storm this strong phasing off the SE coast is going to have enough easterly flow to get precip back to the I-81 corridor. My first guess is 2-4" for DC. Only posted this here because this has become the weenie thread Have a great day all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I'm hoping for a reverse-bust of the March 2017 debacle.I mean, that storm trended West within 72 hours too, so that's some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 this will be one of those storms where i think we will be tracking till the last minute using weenie radar hallucinations, ticks and all the other weenie things we do to try to get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Who needs models? If it's not a Saturday, it doesn't snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, attml said: There is a pretty healthy low just north of South America that is forming and moving NW. It will influence our system to move north and west and this will be a hit for our area. You heard it here 2nd or 3rd. :-) http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true This is expert level use of the weenie handbook. Make sure this data is fed into the Euro run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Joe Bastardi feeling it! Shocker. From Weatherbell: "Remember the ratios will be higher, but when we are talking about feedback development, the models like the NAM and RGEM should be best, That the Canadian global model and ensembles have seen what they have seen may be because they are not as complex so they dont see the kind of feedback that fast that the GFS does. which spins things up fast, So what happens is the that until these features get close to the verification time, the complex global models may start estimating quicker where something may form spin it up and then take off, The Canadian global is likely not as sophisticated as the Euro so it does not start the feedback, However as we get closer, the regional models should have the better handle and NAM makes sense to me, Think about it, how does a storm blowing up move away from the trough trying to capture it with height rises to its northeast and over a warm ocean. So a correction west makes sense, In any case using higher ratios we see that this could be a shut down storm in the coastal mid Atlantic to New England and perhaps as far west as DC to NYC in the I-95 corridor" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I'd like to be pleasantly surprised like on 12/9/2017 but with this cold dry airmass overhead I just don't see actual precip making it too far west here with the currently modeled track. Need the models to move the track further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 30 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: This does have a January 2000 feel to it. We will probably get the shaft, but I'm imagining Sue Palka coming on the news at 10PM tomorrow night saying anyone who went to bed early will be in for a surprise. Maybe the Euro has a surprise for us so I'm staying tuned I've heard multiple numerical weather prediction specialists opine that Jan 2000 will never happen again due to the advancements in their craft. Every time I hear it, i just shake my head. I am NOT suggesting that necessarily this storm is the one, merely making an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 More than a little bump NW with the shield on the 12z gefs. Trace line well west of 95 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2018010212/gfs-ens_apcpn24_eus_7.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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