mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: No way. If you love the Euro so much, don't forget what it showed on the runs of 12/28. No other model made that mistake twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 We all know the RGEM is wrong, but in our sick, twisted minds, it gives us hope and keeps us strung along. Same with the NAMWhat do you mean the model with the most snow is wrong? When has hugging the model with the most snow gone wrong? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Got precip west of the bay. Looks like a lower qpf version of the euro. I'm telling you, the gfs is going to look like the smartest model when this is all said and done even though it was too far east for like 50 runs. Yup. If the UKMET looks like the RGEM, then we may be on to something. But then again, the UKMET gave us a full on shellacking 2 days ago and look where we're at now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Delmarva crushjob for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Canadian GGEM...better than Rgem https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018010212&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This is gonna be all of us in about 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 20 minutes ago, MD Snow said: So flipping stubborn but making tiny shifts west nonetheless. We only need 75 miles more. 24 more hrs. It seems like a lot of west shifts yet the precip barely budges. Like someone else said, seems like low placement is not that important. I don't get this storm, it ties my head in knots. But I look at the past, and these types that get coastal areas and its party cloudy in DC, have happened numerous times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is coming west. Book it. I wouldn't be surprised. The GFS, both NAMs, and the GGEM have all come west from 00z to 12z. If it were just the GFS and NAMs, I'd think they were catching up to the Euro. But the GGEM was already west of the Euro, so it could be something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Definitely liking this setup from ORF-OC. Still have to watch how entangled that coastal front gets. Some indications that cyclogenesis is going to be there instead of further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 We can joke around a lot right now and rightfully so. But if you objectively look at all the data since 6z, it has all broken in our favor. Even the GFS pushed precip west of the bay. Saying there is no chance west of the bay is basically saying ALL guidance is wrong under 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I am not sure that the CMC came that much west... just the precipitation field expanded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: We can joke around a lot right now and rightfully so. But if you objectively look at all the data since 6z, it has all broken in our favor. Even the GFS pushed precip west of the bay. Saying there is no chance west of the bay is basically saying ALL guidance is wrong under 60 hours. Staying home for 1-3 or heading to Cambridge for 6-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: I am not sure that the CMC came that much west... just the precipitation field expanded. Since that's all that counts, that is I'm sure what everyone means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Staying home for 1-3 or heading to Cambridge for 6-10? Probably going to Cambridge. Of course my 80 year old mom gave me the "mom act" last night about not risking my life for her. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Boom! j/k But some of the probabilities seem pretty bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: Since that's all that counts, that is I'm sure what everyone means. It all comes down to how rigorous the shortwave is and can it back flow west of the bay. The RGEM is the most aggressive with the by far. Even though there is no traditional mechanism for the storm to have an expansive western shield, it can still "bully" its way west. That's exactly what the RGEM showed. Of course I think it's overdone but you have to admit that 6z and 0z so far have cracked the door a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 lol, not only does the CMC give I-95 west 1-3 inches, it also gets all of us down to below -5F Sunday morning. If that verifies I'll be a Tim-Hortons eating, maple syrup sipping Canadian for the next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Probably going to Cambridge. Of course my 80 year old mom gave me the "mom act" last night about not risking my life for her. lol. People are underplaying this could be a legit blizzard. How often do we get a storm with horizontally pouring snow and windchills approaching 20 below zero? Seriously, this could be a deadly storm if my fears are realized. One for the record books if everything goes right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, Subtropics said: Mark my words- this is going to be a hit. The GFS has a known SE bias when it comes to coastal. I am going for 6'' in my backyard in MOCO. I have alerted family and friends to stock up on necessities. i will never mod your posts again if this works out in your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Probably going to Cambridge. Of course my 80 year old mom gave me the "mom act" last night about not risking my life for her. lol. For her? You're going to tell her the truth, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We can joke around a lot right now and rightfully so. But if you objectively look at all the data since 6z, it has all broken in our favor. Even the GFS pushed precip west of the bay. Saying there is no chance west of the bay is basically saying ALL guidance is wrong under 60 hours. Yes, the GFS has continues to come west each run (other side of last night?) Its looks like a 125 mile shift West altogether. Yet the Precip in our area seems to only have moved about 25 miles for whatever reasons. 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Boom! j/k But some of the probabilities seem pretty bullish. Seems pretty spot on to me based on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 I took off storm mode. That’s the ONLY reason it will snow. Now you have more excuses to say “bless your heart” to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, H2O said: I took off storm mode. That’s the ONLY reason it will snow. Now you have more excuses to say “bless your heart” to me This gave us a nice shift west with the guidance. Make this a banter thread and the Euro will most likely give us a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: This gave us a nice shift west with the guidance. Make this a banter thread and the Euro will most likely give us a HECS. it pretty much is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 FWIW, JMA has ticked NW with qpf and now has SE Pa back through central MD into a little action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 anyone have that link to the ukmet that's upside down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: anyone have that link to the ukmet that's upside down? Upside down version of the ukmet is always the best. Sort of like a snow globe effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: anyone have that link to the ukmet that's upside down? Meteo is loading. Ukie definitely went west with the low from 0z but need precip panels to see what that means here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Meteo is loading. Ukie definitely went west with the low from 0z but need precip panels to see what that means here.... great....holding breath (have to, nasty garlic last night!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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