Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I know its not about looking at an L on a surface plot but I found this interesting and it isnt the only model doing this. Watch the progression of lp jump to tje NW here as the strong thermal gradient nearer the coast fires up. The "L" presents it nicely but you can see it actually follows the drop in pressures and isnt just a pretty red font on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12z NAM is rolling. Who has the pbp? Not much change at h5 through 17hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM more vigorous with stj vort.....has a small closed center at h5 at 18 hrs near southern arkansas.....that is new. Eta: opens back up next panel but clear look at a stronger sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM more vigorous with stj vort.....has a small closed center at h5 at 18 hrs near southern arkansas.....that is new. Seems slower with NS phasing in though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Yep way stronger swSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Not NAM related per se but if we can get the lp to be near the outer banks/hatteras during its trek, I will take my chances from there. 100 miles east of there meh. Have seen enough times over the years the baroclinic zone or coastal front wreak havoc with systems as they near that area often altering track just enough. Get this to no more than 50 miles off OBX and I will take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Seems slower with NS phasing in though.... We don't want phasing right? We want the NS to stay the f away and the southern to be strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: We don't want phasing right? We want the NS to stay the f away and the southern to be strong yes, but also the more SW the NS vort is, the better chance for higher heights up the coast. Think trough axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 how is the Panic Room doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 We don't want phasing right? We want the NS to stay the f away and the southern to be strongThat's a different phasing. You mean the 3rd piece...kickerSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Thru 36 I can tell you that the NAM has not caved to the globals ie GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Thru 36 I can tell you that the NAM has not caved to the globals ie GFS. 700 panel shows a 75 mile(ish) westward adjustment over 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 At 39 SLP further northwest but weaker, so precip shield is further southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just get it to near Hatteras. From there we play the old tracking game "ENE or NNE". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 at 54 850 is 75 miles WNW of 6z. It sure is trying to keep us interested. scratch that....Too much toggling. apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It's not just west, the way the 3rd piece is interacting is somewhat different. I don't want to get too technical on you guys, but it's less kickery and more phasey. Sadly, it's still just the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said: It's not just west, the way the 3rd piece is interacting is somewhat different. I don't want to get too technical on you guys, but it's less kickery and more phasey. Sadly, it's still just the NAM. Obviously, need to let the run finish but slp slides almost due east from hours 42-45. Seems like the third piece is kicking it east to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Nam drops 8-12 on the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 48 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Snowfall mean ticked up .5" or so at DCA, ticked up a little less at Baltimore. Both around 3.5". The Sref is is useless because the ARW members are so ridiculously over amped they skew it beyond reason. It's like if the gefs had a bunch of CRAS's embedded in the ensemble. And frankly the other members aren't skilled enough to be worth picking through the individual members to try to pull anything meaningful from them. They just add noise. Their about as useless a tool for winter storm prediction as there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Measurable snow back into dc and Baltimore on the 12km. Surface low is essentially in the same position, but as HM has been harping on Twitter, the western edge of the precip shield is about more than low position and strength. Lot of nuance in how the shortwaves interact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM doesn't cave. Keeps some hope alive for areas east of 95 to the bay. So close to something a little better. On one hand we know how these situations usually turn out for us. However, all we would need would be a 25-75 mile shift east on all the modeling to get the cities into accumulating snow. It's a tall order but at the same time it's not that far fetched. Still got 24 hrs and a lot of dynamics. Another thing to keep in mind is dry air. If this run verified, I would think you would only see snow on the eastern shore due to dry air. Someone could probably explain this better than me? There have been countless times when models get precip from coastals to 95 and show a sharp cutoff. Dry air usually wins out in these situations unless the storm tracks further west or is stronger than the model that gives snow to 95. Nowcasting will be essential with this one. If you see this storm strengthening and further west than what was modeled we may actually get snow to 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 nice event for NJ into NY and New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18 minutes ago, pasnownut said: yes, but also the more SW the NS vort is, the better chance for higher heights up the coast. Think trough axis. Yeah that final sw is pretty sharp- if it can dive in a tad further west, I think the low would gain some additional latitude with less tendency to be shunted eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It's one of those storms... I'm in the 0.05 - 0.1" qpf contour and I still feel like I've just been nammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Obviously, need to let the run finish but slp slides almost due east from hours 42-45. Seems like the third piece is kicking it east to me. Remember when that 'kicker' as you refer to it was kicking the lp east down by SC? Then SC/NC? and now NC? Get the lp to near Hatteras. Focus short term. Imo that is our surface goal for now. From there we take our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, mappy said: nice event for NJ into NY and New England Yup. In our region the immediate coast should do well. Pretty good chance of 6"+ SBY and east to the beaches. Just NW of there to about I-95 is still a big question mark in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Yeah that final sw is pretty sharp- if it can dive in a tad further west, I think the low would gain some additional latitude with less tendency to be shunted eastward. 250mb winds suggest more of a phasing feature trying to merge into sw side of trof and not really a 'kicker' at all. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Yup. In our region the immediate coast should do well. Pretty good chance of 6"+ SBY and east to the beaches. Just NW of there to about I-95 is still a big question mark in my mind. the northern s/w did better this NAM run. it was more south than east, allowing some movement with the southern s/w and its precip shield back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Phew, one the the tightest gradients I think I've seen. Atlantic City with over a foot+ and maybe a dusting for Northeast Maryland. But we've seen it before, boxing day, Dec 2000. etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Another thing to keep in mind is dry air. If this run verified, I would think you would only see snow on the eastern shore due to dry air. Someone could probably explain this better than me? There have been countless times when models get precip from coastals to 95 and show a sharp cutoff. Dry air usually wins out in these situations unless the storm tracks further west or is stronger than the model that gives snow to 95. Nowcasting will be essential with this one. If you see this storm strengthening and further west than what was modeled we may actually get snow to 95. Models account for virga. A bigger concern in my mind is for there to be more convection offshore which could rob the western edge of moisture. We’ve seen that happen before *cough*march2013*cough* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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