isohume Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 ECMWFuk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No even if that happens...that storm chaser group from PA that made that map is a joke. Straight hype everything. My wife followed them for some reason and their stuff is always a joke. just so ya know.... that group is also frowned upon by the rest of the PA storm chaser groups... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: If you get a chance. Glance at the water vapor loop and see what you think. To me it looks as if the kicker is verifying farther north. And that we are seeing a stronger quicker piece of energy under-riding the kicker that looks as if it is beginning to drop down the west side of the initial phase for a possible 2'nd phase. If I am reading that right that would mean a farther north track from the coastal before the hard turn right and a possible closer approach to the shore if in fact we are seeing a possible 2'nd phase occur to our south. Or am I just being a weenie. This loops shows it pretty well. We need that kicker coming out of Canada to dive straight south instead of SE. That is not what I am seeing here. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northernhemi-08-48-1-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: if any one of these features is modeled wrong by a small degree... At least it was a move towards (instead of away) from other guidance even if not as much QPF. Did the euro just nail it to a tee? We won't know for 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Friend just east of Charlotte, NC said it's snowing there. Probably means very little to us, but that's definitely wayyyy further West than the models were showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It's pretty much nowcat, satellite, water vapor and radar time really snug to coast with precipitation well inland , not even formed yet but still impressive with more to come. Models mishandled departing Arctic high ne of Nova Scotia, it has served to snug storm to coast and not send it out our bigger threat may actually be rain as opposed to a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 just hug this tweet till 2:45pm https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/948616257082937346 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: This loops shows it pretty well. We need that kicker coming out of Canada to dive straight south instead of SE. That is not what I am seeing here. yea but its further north than modeled...it would quick the storm out further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 EURO has the slp at 958 or 959 at 12 Z and 80 mph winds near the center. Way out to sea. Our best hope is good ratios and a good quick burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: Friend just east of Charlotte, NC said it's snowing there. Probably means very little to us, but that's definitely wayyyy further West than the models were showing. like a flurry or two or like real steady light snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, RedSky said: Link for this? I like It was posted on Twitter. Not to be taken seriously though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: like a flurry or two or like real steady light snow? He's in Monroe, NC. He says light snow, but keep in mind he doesn't see it often. Probably flurries. Not heavy enough to catch it on camera, yet. I'm asking him to keep me updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said: It's pretty much nowcat, satellite, water vapor and radar time really snug to coast with precipitation well inland , not even formed yet but still impressive with more to come. Models mishandled departing Arctic high ne of Nova Scotia, it has served to snug storm to coast and not send it out our bigger threat may actually be rain as opposed to a whiff i wouldn't underestimate the dry air on the northwestern side. radar loops good, but how much of that becomes precipitation reaching the ground is the question. not really sure i understand the rain part. this storm has always been about how much precip, not what type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: yea but its further north than modeled...it would quick the storm out further north? It would allow the storm to ride farther north because it wouldn't break down the heights as quick on the east coat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, NovaTarHeel said: He's in Monroe, NC. He says light snow, but keep in mind he doesn't see it often. Probably flurries. Not heavy enough to catch it on camera, yet. I'm asking him to keep me updated. Monroe NC sees snow every year. If he is older than 5 he should be able to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 IF you compare the euro from last night, it might not be a big shift in our area but it was a substantial shift for NJ. They went from a light event to a warning level event over a large area. Overall, it was a big shift for short leads from the euro. Pretty much in chips fall mode at this point. Hopefully the NAMs/RGEM don't do their last minute haircut in a few hours. By 0z it's probably safe to trust the mesos for our area in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: Friend just east of Charlotte, NC said it's snowing there. Probably means very little to us, but that's definitely wayyyy further West than the models were showing. Most of the models have precip into central nc before the system starts getting pushed east by the ns energy. That said, I'm still watching and hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: IF you compare the euro from last night, it might not be a big shift in our area but it was a substantial shift for NJ. They went from a light event to a warning level event over a large area. Overall, it was a big shift for short leads from the euro. Pretty much in chips fall mode at this point. Hopefully the NAMs/RGEM don't do their last minute haircut in a few hours. By 0z it's probably safe to trust the mesos for our area in general. Euro also upped totals in a big way for coastal plain of NC. You mentioned a bit ago that most of the good GFS members for us showed 6+ for them. Perhaps a sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: He's in Monroe, NC. He says light snow, but keep in mind he doesn't see it often. Probably flurries. Not heavy enough to catch it on camera, yet. I'm asking him to keep me updated. That matches up with radar returns in the area. Euro has the Charlotte area bone dry. Hopefully a sign that the euro is out to lunch with the western edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Here's the Euro QPF zoom for the SE. We can keep tabs on verification as we move through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Ok, someone start the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Here's the Euro QPF zoom for the SE. We can keep tabs on verification as we move through the day. lol i like how deep creek gets snow no matter what...every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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