cae Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: LOL at what the 3k did to places in east central NC and interior southeast VA. Places went from over 1" qpf to 0 in 2 runs. Not exactly consistent. Yeah, it's usually a good model, but it made a shift towards the RGEMs there. It will be interesting to see which RGEM ends up doing better. The HRDPS is better on average, but not always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW, 12z UKIE looks a lot better QPF wise... remember 00z UKIE gave us zilch http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&mode=latest&map=na&lang=en&hh=000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&mode=latest&map=na&lang=en&hh=000 Good luck man post pics of the planes taking off in the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This gives a better shot of MD north... 5-6mm @ DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12z UKMET is advisory level snow for BWI and DCA...looks like the 1" line runs back to FDK / JYO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If local climo does what it usually does... Damascus/Clarksburg will do better than my yard. Always seems that there's just enough orographic influence in that area to eek out more even when my yard is in a better spot on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Trend continues. I remain confident in my 6'' reading somewhere in montgomery county when all is said and done. Think this will be a pretty big impact locally, especially with the timing of it in the AM and what will turn out to be a blown forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z UKMET is advisory level snow for BWI and DCA...looks like the 1" line runs back to FDK / JYO. Interested to see if the Euro follows the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z UKMET is advisory level snow for BWI and DCA...looks like the 1" line runs back to FDK / JYO. CHOO CHOO motherf-ckers!! Snowtrain is rolling! Destination: Despair!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Getting it's act together fast. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-southeast-airmass-48-1-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This gives a better shot of MD north... 5-6mm @ DC? I think I get more like 3.5-4 around DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I think I get more like 3.5-4 around DC. Looks 0.15-0.20 QPF... 2-3" I would guess if it had decent SR's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'm going to laugh if this keeps ticking west and we end up getting a solid snowstorm. The one poster on here yesterday that posted that one map, which admittedly looked very much like wishcasting at the time, could be owed a lot of apologies for all the crap he took. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: CHOO CHOO motherf-ckers!! Snowtrain is rolling! Destination: Despair!! Come on man. Get it together! You and I are in the same boat. We are going to get rocked! 1-2 flakes tops. Seriously hoping for 2” though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 call me a weenie (because I am), but look at the southern stream....man, that's neutral if not going negative as we speak http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-airmass-48-1-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I'm going to laugh if this keeps ticking west and we end up getting a solid snowstorm. The one poster on here yesterday that posted that one map, which admittedly looked very much like wishcasting at the time, could be owed a lot of apologies for all the crap he took. The one that looked like it was drawn by a two year old? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: The one that looked like it was drawn by a two year old? Yes LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: call me a weenie (because I am), but look at the southern stream....man, that's neutral if not going negative as we speak http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-airmass-48-1-100 Weenie. Ok. Who is going to start Obs thread for this baby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, losetoa6 said: Looks beautiful Mitch yep.....look how the southern stream bullies its way due north in western NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I guess you can add me to the weenie hallucination category. But after looking at the water vapor loop I question whether we may be seeing a new factor thrown into the mix which could possibly be a game changer. This is 6hr of the 12z run so it is a couple of hours ahead of the water vapor loop but close enough to get an idea of what we should be expecting to see on the water vapor loop. Now A is and has been a weak non-player throughout the runs to the best of my knowledge whereas B we have focused on being the kicker. I look at the water vapor loop though and I am not seeing this setup. Though we are still seeing a small portion of B running down towards the phase we are seeing the main parcel not getting the dig that the models suggest we should be seeing at this point. Now what stood out to me is the fact that A looks to be much stronger and dropping much quicker then modeled. In fact it looks as if it is already beginning to drop down into the base of the current phase of the initial NS and SS. Here is the radar loop. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ Now maybe I am off here and looking at this through weenie glasses so I would be glad to hear others thoughts on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: call me a weenie (because I am), but look at the southern stream....man, that's neutral if not going negative as we speak http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-airmass-48-1-100 That's negative already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: call me a weenie (because I am), but look at the southern stream....man, that's neutral if not going negative as we speak http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-airmass-48-1-100 Man that's a beautiful loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I know I know....ensembles are dumb at this point...but... The GEFS members that push the .2 line west of DC all hit the coastal plain of NC pretty good. 6"+ down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Clueless said: Weenie. Ok. Who is going to start Obs thread for this baby? Anybody but let’s wait until after the king crushes our dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, Subtropics said: Trend continues. I remain confident in my 6'' reading somewhere in montgomery county when all is said and done. Think this will be a pretty big impact locally, especially with the timing of it in the AM and what will turn out to be a blown forecast. I stand by what I said yesterday -- i will never ever mod a single one of your posts if you see 6" in MoCo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Ukie qpf. Nice shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Anybody but let’s wait until after the king crushes our dreams. You know damn well it's going to be east and or bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, cae said: Ukie qpf. .1ish inches for DCA? I'm going back to radar hallucinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Clueless said: Weenie. Ok. Who is going to start Obs thread for this baby? I think its coming after the Euro run if I'm not mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I know I know....ensembles are dumb at this point...but... The GEFS members that push the .2 line west of DC all hit the coastal plain of NC pretty good. 6"+ down that way. Ensembles are only dumb at this point if they reduce snow, not if they increase or support higher totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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