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JAN 4th Coastal


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9 minutes ago, high risk said:

The next version of the HRRR (implementation late spring) will extend to 36h at 00,06,12,18z.   Here is precip from the 12z run this morning.   A little better on the west side of DC.compareqpfNE_00f13.gif.c2b0a1c2e46d274c34ad543b86980260.gif

If that is the same as what shows up publicly on the rapidrefresh.noaa.gov site, it is better (western edge, not necessarily for mitchnick) than the 06z run

 

totp_z4sfc_f36.thumb.png.bb944862e26f883aec4b2ae03eb85423.png

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

If that is the same as what shows up publicly on the rapidrefresh.noaa.gov site, it is better than the 06z run

 

totp_z4sfc_f36.thumb.png.bb944862e26f883aec4b2ae03eb85423.png

 

     Your plot is the ESRL run;  mine is the official NCEP parallel.   ESRL does plot the NCEP (EMC) version on their page.   The two should be fairly similar, but there will be some diffs.

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Ger said:

At what point did we know the March '17 event was busting too far west? 

That kind of bled the wrong way the last 48 hours in general right up until gametime if you used the globals.  The NAM's were actually pretty spot on from about 48 hours out having that huge warm layer blasting way further NW then the rest of the guidance.  Then the UKMET had a run showing similar somewhere around 36 hours out.  Most threw them out...its the NAM and just a bad UK run...you know how we roll.  In the end the Nam was dead on and the warm layer blasted way up through here and into southern PA when none of the globals had mixing issues for these areas even 12 hours out.  

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Latest 3hr pressure falls.  Looks like highest towards SE  coast of N. Carolina . Hopefully our storm rides right over the Obx

.

sfc_con_3pres.gif

On radar you can see the storms firing up just of the coast pushing north west.  Seems like a good bet our storm will get started around that area

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48 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

GFS is 1-3 again for us, ratios perhaps permitting someone close in DC to get to 3.  This may end up surprising some people tomorrow morning. 

PHI currently working on nudging the advisories west for Delmarva it seems...would stand to think that LWX nudgets advisory back to Fairfax, Montgomery, Howard, Baltimore, Harford sometime this afternoon.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

PHI currently working on nudging the advisories west for Delmarva it seems...would stand to think that LWX nudgets advisory back to Fairfax, Montgomery, Howard, Baltimore, Harford sometime this afternoon.

Yeah it seems like the cold road temps, cold air temps, and timing of this will make it relatively high impact given the low (expected) snow totals.  

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11 minutes ago, cae said:

Just getting caught up on the runs since last night.  The Euro wasn't as bad as I feared.  Both the Euro and the 3k NAM are telling me the same thing.  #PSUSnowMagnet

k1jOdQL.gif

1W9rGZR.gif

LOL at what the 3k did to places in east central NC and interior southeast VA.  Places went from over 1" qpf to 0 in 2 runs.  Not exactly consistent.  

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43 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You must not have seen the 6z run then. Horrendous....around .05 qpf. This is good imho.

Something strange seems to be going on with the off-hour GGEM runs.  The 00z runs and 12z runs have been showing a fairly consistent story for two days now, but the 06z and 18z have been very different - much drier. 

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