Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Crap...CMC bumped east....ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Crap...CMC bumped east....ugh why are we still using the globals..especially the progressive ones like CMC and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Crap...CMC bumped east....ugh I'd lock this up right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Ji said: why are we still using the globals..especially the progressive ones like CMC and GFS Because we're looking for something better than the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 A couple big ifs: If the NW Precip is underdone; If the east kick is delayed a few hours; If the track is 50 miles west of current guidance. All or any combination of these factors could easily make this a legit snowstorm for DC Metro. At this point I'm going to follow the mets and the forecasting pros on the forum. I think they have done a great job over the last 24 hours explaining how these "If's" can happen and how they can't happen. I still think this system has some tricks up its sleeve for better or worse. Man this is a fun one to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 A warm calm just rushed through my body...now that I know 100% that I am out I can now relax. Enjoy your snow folks...maybe the next one is ours...if there is a next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Crap...CMC bumped east....ugh Still 2" in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I am mobile - anyone got the GFS snowfall map re: the cutoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Does the King still matter at 1:00 this afternoon. At this point? (Did I just question the King—-my bad) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Still 2" in DC It's a one man sport now. Glad I don't live out west though...sorry dudes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That cutoff is gonna be real. We've seen it before. 1989 in NJ. Nothing to 10" over 15 miles in NJ was the ultimate example. But I'm ok with what the nam and gfs are doing. Are we really that pressed about getting 1"? If so I apologize I'm not telling anyone what to be happy with. But if I can increase the chances of getting 3-5" at the cost of perhaps not getting 1" I'll take that. It will hurt for those that end up just west but we're increasing the chances some of us get a respectable snow here. 1989 -- another classic La Niña favored teleconnection setup (+PNA and +NAO). Recall -- the stronger the frontogenesis, the tighter the gradient. Wetter on the wet side, drier on the dry side. Some of us are going to be painfully close to several inches of snow possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 At what point did we know the March '17 event was busting too far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think the main takeaway is that the Rain/Snow line is west on the NAM/GFS. We need this to happen before we even think of a decent/bigger snowfall for I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's a one man sport now. Glad I don't live out west though...sorry dudes! If the Potomac wasn't in the way I could literally walk to your house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 HRRR/RAP looking pretty good...HRRR is particularly ambitious. 0.1" up to Wes Land at 08z when it cuts off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: I think the main takeaway is that the Rain/Snow line is west on the NAM/GFS. We need this to happen before we even think of a decent/bigger snowfall for I-95 +dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Crap...CMC bumped east....ugh You must not have seen the 6z run then. Horrendous....around .05 qpf. This is good imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looks to me like CMC, RGEM, GFS and NAM all look pretty similar now in terms of the western edge of the precip. The amounts look fairly similar too if you believe the NAM totals are overdone, as they can often be, and you cut them back. Looks like generally 1-4 inches from just west of 95 to close to the bay, and then you go up from there as you head toward the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
annapolismike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Every now and then it pays to be east. Once every few years we make out better. Maybe it will actually cover the blades of grass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I feel sorry for all of you Mets and Pro Forecastors. All week you've been telling everyone what could and should happen based on the models, only for everything to go to **** right before the event gets here. Sure, you get pretty close and even with all of the uncertainty you're 70%+ accurate, but when things go boom or bust everyone can't wait to call you wrong. Personally, I can't wait to call you all wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: HRRR/RAP looking pretty good...HRRR is particularly ambitious. 0.1" up to Wes Land at 08z when it cuts off... Yup with 0.05" QPF knocking on DC's door as it cuts off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Just an obs..current radar pushing returns into upstate SC. No model I can find has precip that far NW. Very easily could consolidate and pull toward the coast as the day move along but thought it was interesting nonetheless. The HRRR has those echoes (as it should!). I'm not sure that radar hallucinations are going to be beneficial until 10 or 11pm tonight. That might be the point where we start to see where the western edge is going to roughly set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: why are we still using the globals..especially the progressive ones like CMC and GFS Maybe it's my inner weenie but I was kinda thinking that. If the high res models can't outperform the globals at 12-18 hours...what do we even have then for. In seriousness I would weigh the rgem over the ggem at this range. And since the upgrades last winter the nam has been better. Yea it still Nams sometimes but it's seemed to go off on weird tangents less than it uses to. Not saying the globals are wrong but at this range the high res should be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Ha. CMC is identical to my post above about the cutoff. I hope this thing can pull some LE streamers down over my area on Friday. That is the only snow we will see out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: The 3k really pumps up the precip to the west once the storm bombs out. Unfortunately it is not in time for me. But DC sees some more snow from that wrap around band. And of course so does Westminster. Eastern winter this year. Horrifying for those of us to the west. Actually, Eastern areas have scored the past 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The next version of the HRRR (implementation late spring) will extend to 36h at 00,06,12,18z. Here is precip from the 12z run this morning. A little better on the west side of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, high risk said: The next version of the HRRR (implementation late spring) will extend to 36h at 00,06,12,18z. Here is precip from the 12z run this morning. A little better on the west side of DC. Is that 0.10-0.25 QPF that DCA is in? Just wanted to make sure of the QPF zones... looks like .20 at DCA or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, high risk said: The next version of the HRRR (implementation late spring) will extend to 36h at 00,06,12,18z. Here is precip from the 12z run this morning. A little better on the west side of DC. meh no likey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe it's my inner weenie but I was kinda thinking that. If the high res models can't outperform the globals at 12-18 hours...what do we even have then for. In seriousness I would weigh the rgem over the ggem at this range. And since the upgrades last winter the nam has been better. Yea it still Nams sometimes but it's seemed to go off on weird tangents less than it uses to. Not saying the globals are wrong but at this range the high res should be considered. This is my inner weenie chiming in too, but DT said that the RGEM was his secret weapon a while back. I hope he's right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: meh no likey we will just stick with the 3K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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