Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, supernovasky said: That's about how I've felt. I haven't payed much attention to this storm because it just doesn't seem like we'll get anything more than a fringing. I'd absolutely love to see that precip shield expand like, 10 miles west, then we may be in game. The upside is enhanced lift in an outer band. I've seen it before (most commonly to my NW lol). This one is a little different. There could be an area of brief heavy snow somewhere along or west of 95. It's really hard to say until it's basically happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I GUARANTEE there will be a death band set up over Leesburg. I don't care if the storm is over Bermuda, it always happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The thing that I like about the RGEM (and hate about the NAMs ) is wiggle room. Leesburg should be hugging the RGEM like dangling from a rope in the mouth of a volcano My weenie handbook says we take the depiction of where the back edge sets up from the rgem and superimpose the banding from the 3k nam and boom... 4-8 for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Where do you get 3k nam kuchera? http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc&rh=2018010312&fh=42&r=us_ma&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Where do you get 3k nam kuchera? Pivotal Weather has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 IF the GFS makes even the slightest bump west...hook line and sinker bite on the RGEM...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: See if this works... From my observation sitting WAY out here to the west just gotta say...that is one beautiful looking storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM precip shield with 3k NAM snow gradient = win win Wonder what GFS will do, but I'll hug the RGEM for as long as I can until it caves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS looks slightly better with the western extent at 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS has a much more clearly defined coastal front through 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, DCTeacherman said: GFS looks slightly better with the western extent at 18 hours. Looks like more mixing at the coast on this run, which is much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS has trace along 95 by 6z...that's new... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, DCTeacherman said: GFS looks slightly better with the western extent at 18 hours. Bringing mixing issues into NC and SE VA as well, which would bode well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 God that's brutal on the GFS. More precip west of the bay but a worse cutoff...ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: RGEM precip shield with 3k NAM snow gradient = win win Wonder what GFS will do, but I'll hug the RGEM for as long as I can until it caves. It was tongue and cheeck of course but every once in a generation we get everything to break our way that way. It's not out of the realm I suppose that the rgem correctly identifies the western extent of the storm but the nam is correct with the intense banding feature on the back edge. Very unlikely since the two factors relate to one another but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: God that's brutal on the GFS. More precip west of the bay but a worse cutoff...ugh It's like the precip hits a brick wall.. you can tell by 6z Thursday that precip is much farther West compared to last run, but it ends up in about the same spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If there was ever a time that I want the GFS's occasional bias of too dry NW to be true...this is the epitome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: God that's brutal on the GFS. More precip west of the bay but a worse cutoff...ugh 4" Kuchera style mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 19 minutes ago, Voyager said: Pivotal Weather has it. i think that is 12k. i may be wrong. edit. my bad saw 3k in the drop down. carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: God that's brutal on the GFS. More precip west of the bay but a worse cutoff...ugh I’m going to measure on the east side of my yard. Dare i say the gfs looks like the NAM in terms of precip? Obviously lighter, but same pattern of pushing that ENE elbow to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: God that's brutal on the GFS. More precip west of the bay but a worse cutoff...ugh LOL that kind of cutoff is actually funny who knows where it sets up but I think it's pretty clear it will be nasty wherever it does. Crazy storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: LOL that kind of cutoff is actually funny who knows where it sets up but I think it's pretty clear it will be nasty wherever it does. Crazy storm Stupid northern stream/dry air...you would think this would be a complete rakage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: God that's brutal on the GFS. More precip west of the bay but a worse cutoff...ugh That cutoff is gonna be real. We've seen it before. 1989 in NJ. Nothing to 10" over 15 miles in NJ was the ultimate example. But I'm ok with what the nam and gfs are doing. Are we really that pressed about getting 1"? If so I apologize I'm not telling anyone what to be happy with. But if I can increase the chances of getting 3-5" at the cost of perhaps not getting 1" I'll take that. It will hurt for those that end up just west but we're increasing the chances some of us get a respectable snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Stupid northern stream/dry air...you would think this would be a complete rakage... still may be....too close not to keep it in the realm of possibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just an obs..current radar pushing returns into upstate SC. No model I can find has precip that far NW. Very easily could consolidate and pull toward the coast as the day move along but thought it was interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS is 1-3 again for us, ratios perhaps permitting someone close in DC to get to 3. This may end up surprising some people tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That cutoff is gonna be real. We've seen it before. 1989 in NJ. Nothing to 10" over 15 miles in NJ was the ultimate example. But I'm ok with what the nam and gfs are doing. Are we really that pressed about getting 1"? If so I apologize I'm not telling anyone what to be happy with. But if I can increase the chances of getting 3-5" at the cost of perhaps not getting 1" I'll take that. It will hurt for those that end up just west but we're increasing the chances some of us get a respectable snow here. similar wrt snowfall amounts as temp problems are for us east of the piedmont I can't remember all the times I got slush or nothing while 10 miles to my west/nw got 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: GFS is 1-3 again for us, ratios perhaps permitting someone close in DC to get to 3. This may end up surprising some people tomorrow morning. It would be ultimately weird (since my school is in DC), going from nothing to 2" within a 30 minute drive. Crazy stuff for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If there was ever a time that I want the GFS's occasional bias of too dry NW to be true...this is the epitome... i was thinking the opposite lol. Usually to my eyes, the GFS is more widespread with precip than the other models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Crap...CMC bumped east....ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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