mattie g Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 35 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: If DCA gets several inches and I get flurries, I'm going to find that puppy you kicked and throw it in the Potomac. (figuratively, puppies are awesome) Luckily for our figurative furry friend, the Potomac is frozen over so he’ll probably limp safely back to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 36 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The 3k really pumps up the precip to the west once the storm bombs out. Unfortunately it is not in time for me. But DC sees some more snow from that wrap around band. And of course so does Westminster. Eastern winter this year. Horrifying for those of us to the west. You guys have been stuck in a rut for two years where storms that take a southeastern track stay progressive and east of you but then when storms take a west to east track they either go way northwest or there is no cold high in place so you haven't had those either. It's been a pretty awful stretch for you. I'm truly sorry it has to be frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: See if this works... Storm mode storm mode! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The RGEM looks like a real storm with a proper precip shield. I'm absolutely convinced that the NAMs are overdoing the dry air to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The thing that I like about the RGEM (and hate about the NAMs ) is wiggle room. Leesburg should be hugging the RGEM like dangling from a rope in the mouth of a volcano What's a NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: RGEM snows for like 12 hours...lol...I'm taking the way under I'll still paint a red maple leaf on my balding head if it is right. edit - if its 1/2 right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2", maybe 3" looks like at DCA per 12z RGEM at 10:1 SRs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, yoda said: 2", maybe 3" looks like at DCA per 12z RGEM at 10:1 SRs So better shield of precip but less than 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM is basically the same as 6z but removed the Pac Man from the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Kuchera has 4" of snow at DCA per 12z 3km NAM lol And maybe a dusting out by us. Cutoff FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wouldn't shock me if LWX wound up nudging the advisories west to I-95 and including Baltimore City for a 1" - 3" forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Wouldn't shock me if LWX wound up nudging the advisories west to I-95 and including Baltimore City for a 1" - 3" forecast. I'm guessing they'll wait for the 18z suite until they do that. Just a guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: And maybe a dusting out by us. Cutoff FTL. Not really, we get an inch or two... Fairfax City is in the dusting to one inch zone and we are both SE of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What's a NAM? Since we're playing strictly by the weenie handbook at this point, isn't now the time when someone posts the SE radar and extrapolates for us or did I miss that already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You guys have been stuck in a rut for two years where storms that take a southeastern track stay progressive and east of you but then when storms take a west to east track they either go way northwest or there is no cold high in place so you haven't had those either. It's been a pretty awful stretch for you. I'm truly sorry it has to be frustrating. THIS x 1000! A lot of us western folks have barely broken an inch to date this year....and last year should be banned from memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Wouldn't shock me if LWX wound up nudging the advisories west to I-95 and including Baltimore City for a 1" - 3" forecast. Do they need to decide before the euro? If GFS holds and they issue before the euro, I bet they’d probably issue the WWAs. This is a tough forecast and I’m glad I don’t have to make a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Do they need to decide before the euro? If GFS holds and they issue before the euro, I bet they’d probably issue the WWAs. This is a tough forecast and I’m glad I don’t have to make a call. Not sure honestly. They're in a lose-lose situation right now for I-95 and I don't envy their position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Per Wes on Facebook he's thinking T-2" for DCA to BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Do they need to decide before the euro? If GFS holds and they issue before the euro, I bet they’d probably issue the WWAs. This is a tough forecast and I’m glad I don’t have to make a call. Advisories can go up after 18z and still be fine. Onset is after the eve rush. As long as they alert at a reasonable hour before most people go to bed then they've done their job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wouldn't shock me if LWX wound up nudging the advisories west to I-95 and including Baltimore City for a 1" - 3" forecast. Pretty easy criteria for morning commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: RGEM snows for like 12 hours...lol...I'm taking the way under Since you're so close to me, what is your "success/failure mark" for this storm? How many models take it west enough to give us a decent taste? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, MountainGeek said: THIS x 1000! A lot of us western folks have barely broken an inch to date this year....and last year should be banned from memory. Rough couple of years yes but how many events over the years did we snow while DC and surrounding areas snizzled or white rained? It sucks to be on the outside lately but in general...out here and West are pretty sweet in this area for whatever winter weather we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Advisories can go up after 18z and still be fine. Onset is after the eve rush. As long as they alert at a reasonable hour before most people go to bed then they've done their job. Quote .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The low pressure system that will be located off of the eastern United States will rapidly intensify as it moves northeastward from around 995mb at a location southeast of Wilmington NC this evening to near 965-970mb by sunrise Thursday morning when it passes by east of Norfolk VA. The system is progged to continue deepening to near 960mb or perhaps even lower as it passes southeast of the benchmark Thursday afternoon. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in relatively good agreement with snow overspreading portions of the region late this evening, reaching peak intensity and coverage early Thursday morning, and then shifting eastward and away from the region by noon or so Thursday. There remains some differences on the western extent of accumulating snow, as is typical in these situations. As spread has decreased over the last several model suites, have issued Winter Weather Advisories for St Marys and Calvert Counties for 2-4" of snow, and have the one inch line back to about I-95, tapering off to a few tenths by FDK-IAD. Covered the potential impacts for the Thursday morning commute in the metro areas that do not have an advisory with a Potential Winter Commuting Hazard Statement, but as uncertainty decreases along the I-95 corridor, odds are increasing that a winter weather advisory will be issued for the Balt/Wash metro for a rush-hour 1 inch of snow. However, it should be noted that uncertainty still remains with regards to the western gradient. Winds will also be increasing markedly as the system passes by with 850mb temperatures crashing to near -20C by Thursday evening. This will introduce additional wind chill concerns, with a Wind Chill Advisory in effect beginning at midnight tonight across the higher elevations of the Potomac Highlands and Blue Ridge, and continuing through Thursday evening. Wind chills lower than -10F are expected in these locations. Elsewhere, air temperatures will rise through the 20s during the day with wind chills in the single digits and teens. Overnight Thursday night through Saturday morning will be the highest threat window for very low wind chills, especially during the nighttime and morning hours, and a Wind Chill Watch is in effect Thursday night into Friday morning across the higher elevations. Wind chills as low as -25F are possible across those areas. Elsewhere, Wind Chill Advisories will likely be needed at some point as wind chills fall below zero. In addition, with the strong northwest flow, upslope snow showers are also likely across the Allegheny Front Thursday into Friday and a couple inches of accumulation are possible. With 850mb temperatures remaining at or below -20C from Thursday evening through Saturday, actual air temperatures will fall back into the single digits to low teens for lows and rise only into the teens to around 20F for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, supernovasky said: Since you're so close to me, what is your "success/failure mark" for this storm? How many models take it west enough to give us a decent taste? I guess 1" is a win. We're out in bust land though. If I lived close to the Bay I'd be much more excited. If models start busting high with QPF during a virga fest then I know how my yard is going to break. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 i will happily take the 4"-5" the NAM is selling IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12z RGEM has 3" snow via Kuchera at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I guess 1" is a win. We're out in bust land though. If I lived close to the Bay I'd be much more excited. If models start busting high with QPF during a virga fest then I know how my yard is going to break. lol That's about how I've felt. I haven't payed much attention to this storm because it just doesn't seem like we'll get anything more than a fringing. I'd absolutely love to see that precip shield expand like, 10 miles west, then we may be in game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM was a slight improvement from last run. Maybe 3 inches in the area. Not bad, but with such high totals east AND that NAM 3k run, it's hard to get too excited about it. Snows for awhile but must snow awfully light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, yoda said: Kuchera has 4" of snow at DCA per 12z 3km NAM lol Where do you get 3k nam kuchera? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If I had to guess I would say snow will make it out to just east of Winchester. Say Berryville for the cutoff. The models usually underestimate the extent of the western precip shield. I dont think Berryville ends up with heavy accumulations. But I think Leesburg/Purcellville could end up in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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