aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 another map like that and I'm going to start wishing for an EAST trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: in fairness a tug here and a tug there and it can make things go boom. :). 3k looks great and also shows better snows heading up into NE Pa which may be a sign of that northern tick in the qpf fields due to the strength of the storm. That's the thing about (potentially) intense deep layer frontogenesis... Often times what you end up seeing is a tighter gradient than even the meso models are indicating. Wetter on the west side (east in this case), drier on the dry side (west). Convection over the Gulf Stream could also disrupt what would be a nice isentropic trajectory feeding into the I-95 corridor from the northeast. What I am hoping for is a nice, intensifying back edge deformation band that will give us UVVs up in the dendritic growth zone layer. Something that could give us higher than climo SLRs (maybe 15-1...20-1 is awfully tough for this area outside an Arctic clipper). Here in Crofton/central AA County I still think a 1-2" forecast is a safe call, but I can envision an aforementioned scenario that would bring amounts closer to 4+ inches. The other thing to consider -- how long will it be snowing? 6 hours isn't a lot if we're having a difficult time hitting 1/2 inch per hour consistently (which is considered moderate snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I didn't realize how far west I am until I saw that map. most times I am too far east. that would be painful but I have to hope RGEM is closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: another map like that and I'm going to start wishing for an EAST trend if history has any merit in forecasts....your wish will come true at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I was seeing that on Bufkit this morning for the 6z 3K run too. Started around 7-9z and carried into the morning. This might surprise along 95 me thinks. . We can only pray. I’m still expecting to wake up to brown ground with my tiny little remnant snow patches from Saturday. But damn I hope I’m wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I didn't realize how far west I am until I saw that map. most times I am too far east. that would be painful but I have to hope RGEM is closer to reality. The cut off is literally my backyard. You know how depressing it would be to get up in below zero temps with no snow on the ground, only to have to drive to work in Tysons where there'd be snow on the ground? Well, at least it'd give me an excuse to go to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 33 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I love you dude but do you set your alarm to post this on the hour? If you mean my general pessimism towards this storm, I am sorry if it's been a bit too much. I don't want to ruin the fun for others. I'll try to tone it down. But this was the first time I talked about the convective feedback issue that's been bartered about a lot this morning at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: That's the thing about (potentially) intense deep layer frontogenesis... Often times what you end up seeing is a tighter gradient than even the meso models are indicating. Wetter on the west side (east in this case), drier on the dry side (west). Convection over the Gulf Stream could also disrupt what would be a nice isentropic trajectory feeding into the I-95 corridor from the northeast. What I am hoping for is a nice, intensifying back edge deformation band that will give us UVVs up in the dendritic growth zone layer. Something that could give us higher than climo SLRs (maybe 15-1...20-1 is awfully tough for this area outside an Arctic clipper). Here in Crofton/central AA County I still think a 1-2" forecast is a safe call, but I can envision an aforementioned scenario that would bring amounts closer to 4+ inches. The other thing to consider -- how long will it be snowing? 6 hours isn't a lot if we're having a difficult time hitting 1/2 inch per hour consistently (which is considered moderate snow). thanks for this info. Didnt realize the meso's struggle w/ it as you state. Interesting (and potentially painful). You suggest defo band and that is not something we've seen with this storm as the speed seems to hinder that from setting up. 6z's and 12zs seem to show a little of what you suggest. I've not looked at surface, but maybe the "brick wall" to the north might slow it down enough to aid in this?? Your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, NovaTarHeel said: The cut off is literally my backyard. You know how depressing it would be to get up in below zero temps with no snow on the ground, only to have to drive to work in Tysons where there'd be snow on the ground? Well, at least it'd give me an excuse to go to work. sometimes your flush and sometimes your bust. that snow map represents life to some degree and how things can either break in your favor or just break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: sometimes your flush and sometimes your bust. that snow map represents life to some degree and how things can either break in your favor or just break. most of the time we get flushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 according to the 3K NAM... Baltimore would get more than Boston... that would be great but we know that is wrong...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 HUGE win for DC/95 corridor if they see accumulating. While I know this thread went off the rails a bit, , we had some good discussions. Thanks all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: according to the 3K NAM... Baltimore would get more than Boston... that would be great but we know that is wrong...lol NAM has the mid level warm front nosing into Boston and flipping them to mangled flakes and sleet for a time. That's why BWI gets more than BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: NAM has the mid level warm front nosing into Boston and flipping them to mangled flakes and sleet for a time. That's why BWI gets more than BOS. I understand... but I dont see that happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Interstate said: according to the 3K NAM... Baltimore would get more than Boston... that would be great but we know that is wrong...lol Not saying it's right but big storms do some weird things. The height of the storm is during the most rapid pressure falls. Much of that happens before it gets to Boston. At some point it's going to vertically stack and then occlude and the big show is over by then. I still think the NE gets a good shellacking and could be the winner but I have a hunch the biggest precip/snow totals will be probably be along the coast south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Blizzard warning for va beach. It's gonna be fun down there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, pasnownut said: thanks for this info. Didnt realize the meso's struggle w/ it as you state. Interesting (and potentially painful). You suggest defo band and that is not something we've seen with this storm as the speed seems to hinder that from setting up. 6z's and 12zs seem to show a little of what you suggest. I've not looked at surface, but maybe the "brick wall" to the north might slow it down enough to aid in this?? Your thoughts. Yeah, that certainly is plausible and I would certainly look for (hope for) model trends slowing down the system during the rapid cyclogenesis phase. We need a slower system no doubt. The other thing about the back-side deformation band(s) -- sometimes depending on the strength of the system and streamline/trajectory into the DC-Balt corridor we can get in on the action still even as the low has moved well up east of NJ (if not farther N-NE). The problem figuring any of this out towards I-95 (how much and where) is the frontogenetic aspect and likely banded structure, only this time (unlike the event in early December) having to possibly deal with convection. It may be well offshore, but it could screw up the band structures west of the low (for better or worse, depending on YBY in relation to where the best bands set up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Kuchera has 4" of snow at DCA per 12z 3km NAM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM looks better...heh...good band makes it west of DC (not too far). Precip further west than the NAM. No doubt there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Kuchera has 4" of snow at DCA per 12z 3km NAM lol Get your protractor and magnifying glass out yoda! RGEM black and white is coming out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I believe the 12z RGEM looks a bit better Damn, ninja'd by Bob again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yea, Mitch is going to like the RGEM...it's a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 See if this works... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM still insists that precip will be further west than any other model. I dont even know what to think anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 O Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Yeah, that certainly is plausible and I would certainly look for (hope for) model trends slowing down the statement during the rapid cyclogenesis phase. We need a slower system no doubt. The other thing about the back-side deformation band(s) -- sometimes depending on the strength of the system and streamline/trajectory into the DC-Balt corridor we can get in on the action still even as the low has moved up east of NJ (if not farther N-NE). The problem figuring any of this out towards I-95 (how much and where) is the frontogenetic aspect and likely banded structure, only this time (unlike the event in early December) having to possibly deal with convection. It may be well offshore, but it could screw up the band structures west of the low (for better or worse, depending on YBY in relation to where the best bands set up). Thanks much for the feedback. Still lots to learn, but your points make sense...so I'm getting somewhere :). Regardless, I think deformation in our locals is may help if we can get a slowing of the system (and I also think would help fringed folks to the W/NW, but I think the lucky ones for it are definately the NE crew. I'll take whatever crumbs i can get and be happy, as this was one for the fishies a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The thing that I like about the RGEM (and hate about the NAMs ) is wiggle room. Leesburg should be hugging the RGEM like dangling from a rope in the mouth of a volcano Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: See if this works... Bob Chill..thank you sir..that made me smile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM snows for like 12 hours...lol...I'm taking the way under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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