mappy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Personally, I like seeing those disco's from the south NWS and WxSouth are NOT weenie sources...well...not the weenie kind I ignore anyway. We need a big bully to push things west. Small shifts in development are meaningful. With that being said, if my yard gets more than 1" then it's a pretty big win. I want leesburg's yard to get 1". That's what I'm rooting for....heh. I'm okay with discussions from NWS, but that other one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 There are already some changes at 500 on the NAM, shortwave appears a little more energetic and the trough seems to be slightly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If we somehow manage to get a few inches of snow in these parts, it will certainly make Thursday through Saturday the coldest part of the winter. York PA dropped to -6 this morning with 3" of snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Trough is negative at 11 hrs, better than last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 25 minutes ago, SabreAce33 said: None of the mets around here have indicated any chance of phasing in our vicinity. I assume that doesn't change even with a decent tick West and additional intensification? They are talking about phasing between the STJ and the first northern stream vort that dove down into the southeast. The problem for us is as the storm comes north there is another northern stream vort diving down that it runs into and turns east. The really crazy runs that nails us earlier were phasing it with that last vort also. It does eventually but not in time for us, at our latitude it's just messing up the dynamics and moisture transport into our area and bumping the low east at the worst time. All of that is after it affects them so they care not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Back to double barrel lows at 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 06z GFS at 700mb tries to give some love to Jackpotville™ about a 3-5 hour window of decent UVVs on the backside might give the lucky few a crack at breaking the 1" - 2" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, hazwoper said: It’s clearly an NWS office. Check the hot links to the definitions Yeah I know. Was just having a little fun- there will be plenty of weenie hallucinations and analysis today. Not that there is anything wrong with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They are talking about phasing between the STJ and the first northern stream vort that dove down into the southeast. The problem for us is as the storm comes north there is another northern stream vort diving down that it runs into and turns east. The really crazy runs that nails us earlier were phasing it with that last vort also. It does eventually but not in time for us, at our latitude it's just messing up the dynamics and moisture transport into our area and bumping the low east at the worst time. All of that is after it affects them so they care not. Ah, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Let’s do the 12z suite in this thread then move to a nowcasting/obs thread so we can track bare ground and frozen weenie tears. And also surprise Hoffman-mappy snowbands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Precip looking less expansive on the NW side at 19 hours, not looking like a good run for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Recovered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Recovers a bit by 24, looking like a close call again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Precip looking less expansive on the NW side at 19 hours, not looking like a good run for us. Looks better at 22 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Low gets further North this Run, which is what I think some were saying yesterday before it gets shunted East. Good Bands right up to the Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I take this run of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That jump east tho...ugh. It's gonna be gut wrenching...we all just need to buck up. An inch is within the realm tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 DT first call map out FWIW. 1” line from Fredrick to leesburg. 2-4” Bel Air to Mitch’s House to La Plata. 8-13” for Salisbury and Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Jersey shore mixes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wow, how often do you see this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 How good of a model would you all consider the HRRR??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Looks better at 22 hours Notice zr along NJ coast. That's new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Personally, I like seeing those disco's from the south NWS and WxSouth are NOT weenie sources...well...not the weenie kind I ignore anyway. We need a big bully to push things west. Small shifts in development are meaningful. With that being said, if my yard gets more than 1" then it's a pretty big win. I want leesburg's yard to get 1". That's what I'm rooting for....heh. I haven't given up all hope and I was never feeling this (keep in mind my location) but I was waiting for that big jump run to really think "ok this could happen" and it never came. A lot of nudges and eeks but never that oh yea run. Many weenies are throwing around convective feedback to assume the tightly would subtropical storm depiction of many models is wrong. But sometimes convective feedback is real and this thing could take on some subtropical features that hurt our chances. In that case stronger and west won't matter if the storm is a tightly contracted bomb. The baroclinoc boundary along the coast would save them and produce snow but we would be SOL. I suppose there is the last ditch prayer that this is so powerful the guidance can't handle it and the convective problems are fake and it just bullies its way north instead of kicking east once to NC. But that's a LOT and ifs and buts right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I haven't given up all hope and I was never feeling this (keep in mind my location) but I was waiting for that big jump run to really think "ok this could happen" and it never came. A lot of nudges and eeks but never that oh yea run. Many weenies are throwing around convective feedback to assume the tightly would subtropical storm depiction of many models is wrong. But sometimes convective feedback is real and this thing could take on some subtropical features that hurt our chances. In that case stronger and west won't matter if the storm is a tightly contracted bomb. The baroclinoc boundary along the coast would save them and produce snow but we would be SOL. I suppose there is the last ditch prayer that this is so powerful the guidance can't handle it and the convective problems are fake and it just bullies its way north instead of kicking east once to NC. But that's a LOT and ifs and buts right there. I love you dude but do you set your alarm to post this on the hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Notice zr along NJ coast. That's new Music Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I haven't given up all hope and I was never feeling this (keep in mind my location) but I was waiting for that big jump run to really think "ok this could happen" and it never came. A lot of nudges and eeks but never that oh yea run. Many weenies are throwing around convective feedback to assume the tightly would subtropical storm depiction of many models is wrong. But sometimes convective feedback is real and this thing could take on some subtropical features that hurt our chances. In that case stronger and west won't matter if the storm is a tightly contracted bomb. The baroclinoc boundary along the coast would save them and produce snow but we would be SOL. I suppose there is the last ditch prayer that this is so powerful the guidance can't handle it and the convective problems are fake and it just bullies its way north instead of kicking east once to NC. But that's a LOT and ifs and buts right there. This is exactly where I am. I keep waiting for the models to eliminate the east kick and suddenly the snow shifts way west but it just hasn't happened yet. Maybe it's coming but if we were playing musical chairs, the music is about to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3k looks much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Notice zr along NJ coast. That's new It would be sleet if anything, and with the rapid strengthening of the low and strong lift in the deform band, it's not too likely IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Look at the 850mb frontogenesis on the 3k at 7z tomorrow. Right along the bay basically. Hence a good snow band develops there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Look at the 850mb frontogenesis on the 3k at 7z tomorrow. Right along the bay basically. Hence a good snow band develops there. 3k home run here it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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