Scraff Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Wow 6z nam increases qpf out here 100%! .02 to .04 lets do this! Insert “it’s happening” gif? Probably should be in storm mode too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 My goal for this storm is to walk out my door and look east and see the snow falling then look west and see Ji punching the air as the sun shines on his face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Gfs did ok. 2" with 10:1 ratios. Kuchera would probably be 3'ish. This is very good considering where we were just 24 hours ago. GFS yesterday was a swing and a miss. This thing is still trending west each and every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 All the 6z 18z runs have been coming in drier. We got this Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Ji said: All the 6z 18z runs have been coming in drier. We got this Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Yeah, but what does the HRDerp model show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: All the 6z 18z runs have been coming in drier. We got this Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Road trip to Glenarden? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The HRRR at the end of its run. So it begins..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: The HRRR at the end of its run. So it begins..... Looks too far east, but it is the end of its run. 6z NAM was disappointing to me. I was hoping for another big west shift that didn't come. Running out of time now for something significant, but maybe it surprises. Just a 50 mile shift or so would be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 FWIW, ensembles have been trending west past few cycles. Primary mode of variability from days 1.5 forward in the ensemble itself is zonal (e.g., east-west). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The HRRR at the end of its run. So it begins..... Center of circulation (feels like Im tracking a hurricane) is displaced way to the East vs other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If this materializes, I would think Mount Holly might consider a Blizzard warning. Rehoboth Beach, DE- Tonight Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 26. Windy, with an east wind 9 to 14 mph becoming north 19 to 29 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Thursday Snow, mainly before 1pm. Areas of blowing snow. High near 29. Windy, with a northwest wind around 33 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Thursday Night A slight chance of snow before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a northwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looks too far east, but it is the end of its run. 6z NAM was disappointing to me. I was hoping for another big west shift that didn't come. Running out of time now for something significant, but maybe it surprises. Just a 50 mile shift or so would be huge.I think we are pretty much where we are going to be on most of the models. Windshield wiper stuff now and I dont expect any major shifts one way or the other. Most reliable guidance is inline with each other. Sorry for western zones but for eastern section take this for a win......it was in Bermuda 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 hours ago, MDstorm said: Yup. This one is going to hurt west of the bay as depicted on most guidance. Still a fascinating storm, but tough to watch. Here’s hoping for some last minute pleasant surprises. MDstorm How is it going to hurt. It is not like the rug is getting pulled out from under us. If we get anything it is a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: How is it going to hurt. It is not like the rug is getting pulled out from under us. If we get anything it is a plus. I guess, but anytime the Eastern Shore and the other cities northeast of us get pummeled and we don't, it stings. The fact the Eastern Shore is having a better snow season than us and that places well into the southeast will have as much, if not more, snow than us this year just out of one storm is also pretty depressing. We've had one legit snow event in basically three years now. It was amazing no doubt, but it makes the close calls sting. At least this doesn't look like a HECS, unless the latest NAM is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: How is it going to hurt. It is not like the rug is getting pulled out from under us. If we get anything it is a plus. It seems as though a period of snow from DC/Baltimore is very likely with an inch or two. But the heavy returns stay just to the east. It will still be nice. Disappointing when we hear big totals from coastal communities, but snow and having the ground covered will be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 20 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Looks too far east, but it is the end of its run. 6z NAM was disappointing to me. I was hoping for another big west shift that didn't come. Running out of time now for something significant, but maybe it surprises. Just a 50 mile shift or so would be huge. I think we are pretty much where we are going to be on most of the models. Windshield wiper stuff now and I dont expect any major shifts one way or the other. Most reliable guidance is inline with each other. Sorry for western zones but for eastern section take this for a win......it was in Bermuda 3 days ago. I think one more slight shift west in the precip field but in general I think the envelope has been licked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: If this materializes, I would think Mount Holly might consider a Blizzard warning. Rehoboth Beach, DE- Tonight Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 26. Windy, with an east wind 9 to 14 mph becoming north 19 to 29 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Thursday Snow, mainly before 1pm. Areas of blowing snow. High near 29. Windy, with a northwest wind around 33 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Thursday Night A slight chance of snow before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a northwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. I just told my dad the same thing. That's basically his forecast as well down in Millville. I told him 5-10" with potential for more pending banding. Last January they called for 4-8" and he got 15" so it's definitely doable in this setup. Gotta love weather man. Sub 965 off ORF and we're hoping to see something of interest west of 95. Lesson for anyone is upper levels rule all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I know most hate the srefs but they went way east and now the blob of uncertainty on the mslp is to the ene of the low. Completely lost the western members it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Depending on what method you use for snowfall, Kuchara is around 4/5" for you and Ferrier Method is around 2-4". NAM 12km is closer to 1-2", but that's a heck of a lot better than what we were looking like 24 hours ago. Remember, just hug the model with the most snow. Works every time........ I can't find any to hug up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I guess, but anytime the Eastern Shore and the other cities northeast of us get pummeled and we don't, it stings. The fact the Eastern Shore is having a better snow season than us and that places well into the southeast will have as much, if not more, snow than us this year just out of one storm is also pretty depressing. We've had one legit snow event in basically three years now. It was amazing no doubt, but it makes the close calls sting. At least this doesn't look like a HECS, unless the latest NAM is correct. It was the same last year. Va Beach got a Blizzard and we got nothing. Almost to the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know most hate the srefs but they went way east and now the blob of uncertainty on the mslp is to the ene of the low. Completely lost the western members it looks like. Interesting. Maybe it's because I've been tracking this storm forever, but it will be really interesting to see which models prove most accurate on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know most hate the srefs but they went way east and now the blob of uncertainty on the mslp is to the ene of the low. Completely lost the western members it looks like. SREF tends to be over-dispersed in terms of track for East coast cyclones, particularly early on in the forecast, so I wouldn't read too much into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: I can't find any to hug up here. I'm with you in Northern MoCo. I'm going to hug 0z RGEM till it turns blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Agree with the shield . Yea i95 I think is in good shape to get in on this storm. 1"- 2" in Baltimore down towards DC is very possible . Roads could be skating rinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 My first radar hallucination. Looks like that blob in North Florida is turning due north. This is going to be like pulling teeth waiting for returns to show up close to DC with big totals piling up just south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 WBAL forecast this morning for the DC/Baltimore corridor was 1-4”. That should cover it! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Mdecoy said: This is very good considering where we were just 24 hours ago. GFS yesterday was a swing and a miss. This thing is still trending west each and every run. Yea we're cutting the less but the finish line is fast approaching. I would feel better with where we are if I lived east of 95 or we had 24 more hours. But if this ends up like last last January when I got a few flurries while ocean city and NYC get buried I'd have rather it stayed east of Bermuda and saved me having to even think about it. ETA: no offense to those on the Delmarva. I don't begrudge you your snow. Enjoy it. But it's just human nature. If the storm was 500 miles away you don't even think about it. But when it's close enough to smell the snow it's on your mind. Two years in a row same time of year is a bit tough to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Anyone see this on the southern board? Currently,water vapor imagery shows the amplified system already acquiring aneutral tilt as it moves into western Alabama. Additional heightfalls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear persiststhat an injection of cold and dry air into the back of the troughaxis will deepen the feature more sharply and farther west thanindicated by the models. This would result in snowfall beingproduced farther inland than featured in the operational models,possibly across a good chunk of our forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: WBAL forecast this morning for the DC/Baltimore corridor was 1-4”. That should cover it! Lol. Ava was pretty clear it was a gamble. That places west like Frederick/Westminster could see nothing, far eastern Baltimore County seeing 2" or so. Tight gradient and little shifts could make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Clouds are already arriving here in extreme southeastern PA high clouds are ripping NE at this time currently 9f here in Media, PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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