Beachin Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jebman said: Of course I dont take the complete phase on the NAM seriously but it is a thing of beauty. Pure weather porn. Just loop it its pretty amazing it's a superstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 952 mbs in the western Gulf of Maine ... bring in the lobster pots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 You think @Bob Chill would approve of this Sim Sat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If you want a shot at 1-2" of snow west of 95, the 3km NAM was a good way to get it done. Very nice H5 presentation with closed center off the Delmarva with a negatively tilted trough. The coast gets absolutely smoked this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Radars are lighting up all down south this hour and I don't see that on the sim/radar progs on Nam brothers to the extent of reality. Does it mean anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 We need other models to show this, more consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: If you want a shot at 1-2" of snow west of 95, the 3km NAM was a good way to get it done. Very nice H5 presentation with closed center off the Delmarva with a negatively tilted trough. The coast gets absolutely smoked this run. It's sad to be so close yet so far away. Hopefully, Rgem fron 0z is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Radars are lighting up all down south this hour and I don't see that on the sim/radar progs on Nam brothers to the extent of reality. Does it mean anything? Dont know if it means anything for us but there has been a lot of development over the NE GoMex/N FL in the past 3-4 hours. I've been watching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's sad to be so close yet so far away. Hopefully, Rgem fron 0z is correct. Depending on what method you use for snowfall, Kuchara is around 4/5" for you and Ferrier Method is around 2-4". NAM 12km is closer to 1-2", but that's a heck of a lot better than what we were looking like 24 hours ago. Remember, just hug the model with the most snow. Works every time........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's sad to be so close yet so far away. Hopefully, Rgem fron 0z is correct. Yup. This one is going to hurt west of the bay as depicted on most guidance. Still a fascinating storm, but tough to watch. Here’s hoping for some last minute pleasant surprises. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6z RGEM didn’t back down from 0z, still gets precip well past 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snowman. said: 6z RGEM didn’t back down from 0z still gets precip well past 95 Nah, Rgem cut way back. D@mn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Check out Miami radar, it's a tropical storm, it has eyewalls and the whole deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nah, Rgem cut way back. D@mn QPF wise yeah, but 0z was too ambitious. It’s decent in my neck of the woods, looks worse for Baltimore though yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looking at the 12K I am not sure the representation of precip on the northwestern side through VA and SE MD is accurate. Look at what we have at 24 hr. SLP and precip Now this is Relative Humidity at 700 mb. Notice we see the 90+ values extend farther north and west then the precip shield. Though we may have moisture we need lift as well. This is the lift we see at 700 mb. We have decent/good lift extending beyond the cities. Now maybe I am wrong but I look at the above maps and I would expect the precip to be more expansive to the north and west. Now this may be no more then a reflection of having to moisten the lower levels first but when looking at some other things I am not really sure it would be the case for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 WWAs now up for S MD and further south: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 334 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 St. Marys-Calvert- 334 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected. * WHERE...St. Marys and Calvert counties. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday. * URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 403 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...High Impact Storm including the aftermath of wind driven record cold on its way to our area... ...A rapidly intensifying ocean storm will produce significant snowfall and strong winds tonight through Thursday... Kent-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline- Including the cities of Dover, Centreville, Easton, and Denton 403 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. In addition, areas of poor visibility are expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Queen Annes, Talbot and Caroline counties. In Delaware, Kent county. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Thursday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 323 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 Westmoreland-Richmond-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George- Charles City-New Kent-Eastern Hanover- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- Including the cities of Lawrenceville, Petersburg, Hopewell, Mechanicsville, Chesterfield, Chester, Colonial Heights, Sandston, Aylett, King William, West Point, King And Queen Court House, Tappahannock, and Dunnsville 323 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central and south central Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to noon EST Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 And Salisbury gets a WSW: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 323 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Northumberland-Lancaster-Middlesex- Including the cities of Cambridge, Salisbury, Crisfield, Princess Anne, Snow Hill, and Ocean City 323 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland and eastern Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looking at the 12K I am not sure the representation of precip on the northwestern side through VA and SE MD is accurate. Look at what we have at 24 hr. SLP and precip Now this is Relative Humidity at 700 mb. Notice we see the 90+ values extend farther north and west then the precip shield. Though we may have moisture we need lift as well. This is the lift we see at 700 mb. We have decent/good lift extending beyond the cities. Now maybe I am wrong but I look at the above maps and I would expect the precip to be more expansive to the north and west. Now this may be no more then a reflection of having to moisten the lower levels first but when looking at some other things I am not really sure it would be the case for the most part. NAM 12km has a pretty decent dry layer between the surface and 850mb, so composite reflectivity actually has snow overhead, but of course, none would reach the ground until saturation occurs in that level. We do see a snow sig 3 hours later at 9z, so the column does give by that point, so it starts to snow after a few hours. That 700mb map was nice to see and 9z sounding showed a decent amount of omega within the DGZ, so likely the first flakes should be fairly nice plate types at the very least, and not needles like we see in some storms. A better DGZ signal would mean even with low precip totals, you can still sneak an inch or two, especially near I-95. I'm still not feeling anything more than an inch areas west of the cities, but I can see how that does occur. Need some luck in the upper levels. Cities on southeast I think see 1+" at this rate. Eastern shore is where the totals start rising significantly with areas like SBY to just inland of the coast getting hit pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 And the latest from LWX... Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The low pressure system that will be located off of the eastern United States will rapidly intensify as it moves northeastward from around 995mb at a location southeast of Wilmington NC this evening to near 965-970mb by sunrise Thursday morning when it passes by east of Norfolk VA. The system is progged to continue deepening to near 960mb or perhaps even lower as it passes southeast of the benchmark Thursday afternoon. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in relatively good agreement with snow overspreading portions of the region late this evening, reaching peak intensity and coverage early Thursday morning, and then shifting eastward and away from the region by noon or so Thursday. There remains some differences on the western extent of accumulating snow, as is typical in these situations. As spread has decreased over the last several model suites, have issued Winter Weather Advisories for St Marys and Calvert Counties for 2-4" of snow, and have the one inch line back to about I-95, tapering off to a few tenths by FDK-IAD. Will cover the potential impacts for the Thursday morning commute in the metro areas that do not have an advisory with a Potential Winter Commuting Hazard Statement. It should be noted that uncertainty still remains with regards to the westerngradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: NAM 12km has a pretty decent dry layer between the surface and 850mb, so composite reflectivity actually has snow overhead, but of course, none would reach the ground until saturation occurs in that level. We do see a snow sig 3 hours later at 9z, so the column does give by that point, so it starts to snow after a few hours. That 700mb map was nice to see and 9z sounding showed a decent amount of omega within the DGZ, so likely the first flakes should be fairly nice plate types at the very least, and not needles like we see in some storms. A better DGZ signal would mean even with low precip totals, you can still sneak an inch or two, especially near I-95. I'm still not feeling anything more than an inch areas west of the cities, but I can see how that does occur. Need some luck in the upper levels. Cities on southeast I think see 1+" at this rate. Eastern shore is where the totals start rising significantly with areas like SBY to just inland of the coast getting hit pretty good. I know it is somewhat comparing apples to oranges but the 12K and 3K are very similar in low placement at 24 hours and yet you are seeing a more expansive presipn field to the north and west on the 3K. The look on the 3K is closer to what I would have expected to see on the 12 K. But, as you said in regards to a deep dry layer in the lower levels, maybe the 12 K has it and the 3K doesn't. All I know is that the 12K has been really rough with the surface reflection when compared to the upper levels over the last couple of days of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Gfs did ok. 2" with 10:1 ratios. Kuchera would probably be 3'ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I know it is somewhat comparing apples to oranges but the 12K and 3K are very similar in low placement at 24 hours and yet you are seeing a more expansive presipn field to the north and west on the 3K. The look on the 3K is closer to what I would have expected to see on the 12 K. But, as you said in regards to a deep dry layer in the lower levels, maybe the 12 K has it and the 3K doesn't. All I know is that the 12K has been really rough with the surface reflection when compared to the upper levels over the last couple of days of runs. They both have it and actually erode it around the same time (7/8z). The biggest thing I see from each model, looking at Bufkit, is the 3K has a more pronounced LLJ that would be aiding in a better presentation west of the Bay. NAM around 45-50 knots while 3K is running around 60 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 46 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gfs did ok. 2" with 10:1 ratios. Kuchera would probably be 3'ish. Sledable. Thats all I really care about. Just give me enough to take my kids to CCBC Catonsville or maybe Oregon Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Shovelable is good enough for me, I think an inch would do it lol. I'd pile it up real good and it would last me for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Good morning! So have we reeled in our storm yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Scraff said: Good morning! So have we reeled in our storm yet? Nope. We enjoy our 1” of powder while the beaches shovel 12”+! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Good morning! So have we reeled in our storm yet? Keep checking the models. This thing has been fun to track. Check out the radar near N FL/SE GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, Jebman said: Keep checking the models. This thing has been fun to track. Check out the radar near N FL/SE GA. I still don’t get it. In a sane world, we would be in a full bread and tp panic with this monster. Total mass hysteria. Sadly though, we merely live in a world where my iPhone button is much bigger than everyone else’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 We live in a world where my Submit Reply button on the forums is a lot bigger than anyone else's lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wow 6z nam increases qpf out here 100%! .02 to .04 lets do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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