wkd Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It seems to me that most of the time you can get a pretty good idea if the low pressure is going to come west by just following the heights along the coast, comparing the current and last runs. If there are height rises the low will usually come west or at least not go further east. This can be picked up fairly early in the run. Probably common knowledge to most here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 15 minutes ago, yoda said: Sigh... 00z CMC went way east It's about the same as 18z, but well east of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Would be kinda funny...if the GFS wins, this would be two in a row, wouldn't it? (wasn't it the first to sniff out last week's no-storm?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Would be kinda funny...if the GFS wins, this would be two in a row, wouldn't it? (wasn't it the first to sniff out last week's no-storm?) Cmc was still a solid delmarva hit and similar qpf as the euro. Gfs refuses to push the western edge. If the delmarva gets a good hit then the gfs failed bigly. My guess is the euro mostly holds and any shift west or east will be mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I know the air is really dry, but I don’t understand why the western side of the low has no precip shield? And why are the precip gradients so sharp? When a powerful low like this tracks closer to the coast, it snows alll the way over in WV and Ohio sometimes. Is that just because the mountains? I need help understanding why the precip shield is so small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Looks like 00z UKIE has around 0.1 QPF still at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: I know the air is really dry, but I don’t understand why the western side of the low has no precip shield? And why are the precip gradients so sharp? When a powerful low like this tracks closer to the coast, it snows alll the way over in WV and Ohio sometimes. Is that just because the mountains? I need help understanding why the precip shield is so small. A handful of reasons but one is no upper level support on the west side. Storm is getting kicked instead of phased. Part of the reason the low is well east of the coast. A partial phase helps moisture transport westward. The storms your thinking of are very different. They have hp parked over top with midlevel winds out of the NE or east. Ocean moisture is transported well inland among other things like upper level dynamics and good jet placement. Another is dry midlevel air coming from the northwest. Look at this panel. 850 winds are out of the Nw or west. And the air is very dry too. Lastly, the storm is further east than we like to see. We usually want them right off obx and not 150-200 miles. Proximity is working against us as well. If the storm took a classic up the coast to the benchmark we would get hit solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 30 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like 00z UKIE has around 0.1 QPF still at DCA Good call. Ukie qpf is similar to 18z GGEM. (00z GGEM is not out yet on meteocentre, but I think it's also about the same.) If anything, the Ukie is slightly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro ticked east. Doesn’t get precip to 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro lost the double barrel look. Consolidated and east. Shield isn't going to make any friends west of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Trimmed the delmarva a good bit. The large area of .4 is now .2. Beaches still get it pretty good. SBY would get close to 6" with good ratios. SoMD jack for west of the bay. Point lookout gets .2 Can't say I'm surprised or let down. 12z today likely marked the best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Trimmed the delmarva a good bit. The large area of .4 is now .2. Beaches still get it pretty good. SBY would get close to 6" with good ratios. SoMD jack for west of the bay. Point lookout gets .2 Can't say I'm surprised or let down. 12z today likely marked the best case scenario. Yup. Things pulled east. Perhaps 3-5" at the beaches. Basically nothing along I-95 until you get to NYC---maybe an inch or so. SNE does a little better, but not much---looks like 2-5 " from NW to SE across that area. Eastern Maine and Nova Scotia are the winners on this Euro run. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 06z NAM gives S MD 1-2"... 3-5 towards eastern shore with some 6" showing up in Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Yes please to the 06z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Winter Storm Watches posted for parts of the Eastern Shore, the Northern Neck, and on down through Tidewater into eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Much better look and evolution at 500 mb on the 06Z NAM compared to the 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Actually seeing the capture of the low by a shortwave and developing closed 500 mb low early in the process. Seeing this occur at 39-42 hours off of the N Florida coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Good to not wake up to another east shift. Short range models shifted slightly west this morning with a closed low closer to coast. Even GFS low is slightly west again of 0z. Eastern shore is in for a treat. Liking the RGEM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Actually seeing the capture of the low by a shortwave and developing closed 500 mb low early in the process. Seeing this occur at 39-42 hours off of the N Florida coast. Agreed. While it's still may be a Longshot, it's still Bears watching. The storm develops very close to the Southeast Florida coast. So a little tick West at 6 Z. Quite the vigorous looking storm on the model. Still Bears watching in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 954mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, losetoa6 said: Yep...and it's not long range. Both nams lookin better early as 30 hours . Hey...This storm hasn't formed yet so it will be fun to see this thru the home stretch Looking over last nights runs and this morning I don't think it is as dire as some may think. At least if their expectations are in check on how much snow DC/BALT may receive (1-2 inches). Early evolution of the storm off of Florida and it's initial track up to OBX have steadily improved. The phasing in the south and the look at 500's has improved. The ground truth may not be reflecting it (snow maps) but we have for the most part seen improvements over the last few runs at 500's. Would still like to see the globals forming a closed low at 500's early in the process though. May all come down to what we see with the trailing NS energy (kicker). Get a deep drop farther to the west then shown now and we probably get our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 That's never been done before since the 1800s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Precip field should be wider like the CMC model (unless the models want to be wrong on purpose) like all the way to D.C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I just looked at 3k for fun. 957 off OBX and the precip shield doesn't make it past 95. It did shift west from 0z as others have noted. the cutoff is so sharp you can drive from no snow to serious snow in like a 10 mile drive or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: So the margin is pretty razor thin, huh? Short of seeing the models try to kick out a double barreled/elongated low again around OBX the precip will have a sharp cutoff. So it will be razor thin from the haves and have nots. So every little bit helps to adjust that track/precip westward. From what I have seen from the recent runs I actually somewhat expect that we will see another shift west on the 12Z runs. Now whether it is enough to get DC/Balt in play I guess we will see. ***(And actually the 06Z RGEM does have an elongated low and looks as if it may be considering trying to redevelop a secondary right off of OBX. Doesn't get it done here but that may be something to watch for in later runs as that would be a game changer)*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I personally am excited ...snow/ no snow to track this system the next couple days because simply put.. it's super rare to get a winter season low of this strength at our latitude ...sub 970 . 93' is the last I believe . 960 mb over Salisbury . Look out on the backside..winds and cold will be epic The infrared satellite pictures will probably be one for the text books. It’s a shame though that it won’t likely go down as the Cobalt 2018 storm locally. Maybe we still get scraped though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 23 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I personally am excited ...snow/ no snow to track this system the next couple days because simply put.. it's super rare to get a winter season low of this strength at our latitude ...sub 970 . 93' is the last I believe . 960 mb over Salisbury . Look out on the backside..winds and cold will be epic I geezed last night and fell asleep at 9. Looks Like I picked the right night to do it. Lol Anyway, by way of comparison, 1/25/00 was a 980 off the NJ coast. It'll be a shame if we get a total whiff like the Gfs is still showing. I think that the gfs is a better model than often given credit, so a total whiff remains on the table in my mind. The low off Florida is just now getting going. See Unysis sutface maps. Tonight's 0z run will have everything the models need to know wrt Florida low and northern stream. So although 12z may see final directional moves (east or west), 0z will be the run to live or die by imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I think there is model bias because of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 You can see the players on the field on this water vapor loop: 1) Northern stream moving south out of Canada entering the Dakotas; 2) Southern stream around Kansas; 3) Clouds gathering over Florida with the surface low. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3®ion=us Moisture convergence map proves models correct with progged storm development off SE coast of Florida. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=qc&inv=0&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 9 hours ago, losetoa6 said: This storm is very trackable still imo. Yeah, might as well keep tracking as RGEM, and NAM to some degree, giving false hope. I'll watch a few more runs to see what happens. Knew when I woke up and saw only 54 posts since I went to bed that it probably wasn't good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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