nj2va Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Lol, the RAP is definitely smoking some good stuff tonight. 00z run gets 0.5” to DC and Baltimore. RAP is hardly reliable and at this range, its probably worse than SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is about the time I start looking for Yoda or Mitch to post that weird ukie site and pray it clobbers me, you, and the other MoCo posters. Really great to see the UL changes showing up on all the guidance during the 00z suite. Hopefully...the ukie and/or euro don'y try to drop a turd in the weenie magic punch bowl. The vibe from the juice is good tonight lol. Quit stalking me dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Our new HRDPS is coming in farther W vs 18z. Mesos are keying on that coastal front and keeping lp nearer the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is about the time I start looking for Yoda or Mitch to post that weird ukie site and pray it clobbers me, you, and the other MoCo posters. Really great to see the UL changes showing up on all the guidance during the 00z suite. Hopefully...the ukie and/or euro don'y try to drop a turd in the weenie magic punch bowl. The vibe from the juice is good tonight lol. I have a hunch the ukie will follow. All meso's and globals have been pretty close to each other at h5. Only subtle differences with track and strength. If we get a couple inches I'll admit this is the biggest reverse bust of at short range in our area in a long time. Not so much the snow totals but how much the storm had to trend to get us in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Since we are all talking about OBY, I prefer the NAM here in Prince George County please!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I have a hunch the ukie will follow. All meso's and globals have been pretty close to each other at h5. Only subtle differences with track and strength. If we get a couple inches I'll admit this is the biggest reverse bust of at short range in our area in a long time. Not so much the snow totals but how much the storm had to trend to get us in the game. Remember when this was East of Bermuda a few days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I have a hunch the ukie will follow. All meso's and globals have been pretty close to each other. At h5. Only subtle differences there and with track and strength. If we get a couple inches I'll admit this is the biggest reverse bust of at short range in our area in a long time. Not so much the snow totals but how much the storm had to trend to get us in the game. It certainly would be a great feeling to actually kick Lucy’s football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 38 minutes ago, ATreglown said: Sorry if this is banter, but anyone else hearing en echo? I have it on ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I have a hunch the ukie will follow. All meso's and globals have been pretty close to each other at h5. Only subtle differences with track and strength. If we get a couple inches I'll admit this is the biggest reverse bust of at short range in our area in a long time. Not so much the snow totals but how much the storm had to trend to get us in the game. Remember when this was East of Bermuda a few days ago? I'll eat every single world publicly in a bright red speedo if I shovel 4" of snow. I might do it just cuz. This is a comeback for the ages if it happens. Backing in with a setup that screams no snow for my yard is pretty novel. This is a learning storm. Want to have even more fun? Cmc has 2 more events on the heels over the next 8 days. All snow. Eta: make that 3 events. D10 is mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'll eat every single world publicly in a bright red speedo if I shovel 4" of snow. I might do it just cuz. This is a comeback for the ages if it happens. Backing in with a setup that screams no snow for my yard is pretty novel. This is a learning storm. Want to have even more fun? Cmc has 2 more events on the heels over the next 8 days. All snow. Oh no. How are my wife and kids going to take the news they're stuck in the basement another 8 days. I'll figure something out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'll eat every single world publicly in a bright red speedo if I shovel 4" of snow. I might do it just cuz. This is a comeback for the ages if it happens. Backing in with a setup that screams no snow for my yard is pretty novel. This is a learning storm. Want to have even more fun? Cmc has 2 more events on the heels over the next 8 days. All snow. Pics or it didn't happen! IF this storm happens for us, it's the exact type of once-in-a-million scenario that keeps most of us hanging in there despite the odds. Probably going to have to dub it the "Cobalt 2018" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The Ukie wouldn’t want to trend back to that snowtastic run from a couple days ago? That would be good for MBY. Liking the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 HRDPS coming around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is about the time I start looking for Yoda or Mitch to post that weird ukie site and pray it clobbers me, you, and the other MoCo posters. Really great to see the UL changes showing up on all the guidance during the 00z suite. Hopefully...the ukie and/or euro don'y try to drop a turd in the weenie magic punch bowl. The vibe from the juice is good tonight lol. UKIE in about 15 mins 16 minutes ago, nj2va said: Lol, the RAP is definitely smoking some good stuff tonight. 00z run gets 0.5” to DC and Baltimore. RAP is hardly reliable and at this range, its probably worse than SREFs. Saw that too and was like, um okay, yes please. Too bad its at range and not likely as you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 May I ask what the HDRPS is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It's better than I thought. Raining inland from Norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: May I ask what the HDRPS is? Hi Res of the RGEM I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This is acceptable. Would be an usual storm onset with what the models are spitting out. Bands would just rotate in from the ocean. No waa stuff like with most coastals. Right to the banding. Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Oh man, that HRDPS is sweet. Decent snow thru 36 and more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Oh man, that HRDPS is sweet. Decent snow thru 36 and more to come. I like that the 0.1” line is out to Dulles and trace to Hagerstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 https://weather.gc.ca/grib/grib2_HRDPS_HR_e.html For all those that are asking what the HRDPS model is. My interpretation is the Canadian version of the hi res 3k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, tstate21 said: https://weather.gc.ca/grib/grib2_HRDPS_HR_e.html For all those that are asking what the HRDPS model is. My interpretation is a the Canadian version of the hi res 3k NAM. does anyone know when the 00z deep Thunder and RPM run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 All the runs are giving most of us snow and onset is like in 24 hours. Wild stuff. I read a piece on the HRDPS and apparently it's pretty good. Forecasters that have used it have given it kudos. That's why it's becoming widely available. It's been around for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Ji posted, jinx, storm canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: All the runs are giving most of us snow and onset is like in 24 hours. Wild stuff. I read a piece on the HRDPS and apparently it's pretty good. Forecasters that have used it have given it kudos. That's why it's becoming widely available. It's been around for a little while. i like the RGEM better....drives the snow way more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: i like the RGEM better....drives the snow way more west Still 3-4 more runs before onset. Plenty of time to get snow to deep creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Still 3-4 more runs before onset. Plenty of time to get snow to deep creek. give us 20 mile shifts every run till onset....well be in good shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is acceptable. Would be an usual storm onset with what the models are spitting out. Bands would just rotate in from the ocean. No waa stuff like with most coastals. Right to the banding. Heh even though it's a different storm/setup, it definitely looks like jan 2000 in that pic, and those bands came straight off the atlantic as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: May I ask what the HDRPS is? It's a high-res (2.5-km) version of the RGEM. I gave a brief description of it at the beginning of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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