StantonParkHoya Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looks like GFS jumped on that eastern low. Could be convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18Z vs 00Z GFS is noise. Virtually no real change there. Still having a tough time with the convection and diabatic PV. The good thing is, like the 18Z, it's still favoring the coastal front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Ji said: Looking at gfs is a waste. It's not the right model to use this close to event Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Either way, it's still basically the same as 18z, maybe a bit East. Shape the GFS takes for the storm is much different though than mesos are showing, that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS is similar to 18z. A little drier for DC, a little wetter for Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Low is 973 versus 968 last run and a hair east. That's noise. At least it's not a skunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: Low is 973 versus 968 last run and a hair east. That's noise. At least it's not a skunk. Yeah, still held where it was 18z basically, which should hopefully mean Euro follows. Mesos might be the way to go this time, not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Think the GFS gets us WWA’s as far back as MoCo? Would seem so... ETA: Haven’t looked at QPF. I’m probably wrong. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just sifting thru so about 6 pages back. I continue to feel we get some accumulation and won't eliminate 2-4" Friday and Sat crazy cold . Time to read more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think the most important part of the 00z gfs run is the last piece of energy coming down. Its diving much further south and allowing the storm to come further north and not acting as much of a kicker. I know others have noted this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 53 minutes ago, yoda said: Oh hai der 00z RGEM at 36 hours Nails on a chalkboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Low is 973 versus 968 last run and a hair east. That's noise. At least it's not a skunk. Yea, no red flag. Similar to 18z so no step back. Changes on the edge were noise. Delmarva qpf increased. Basically the gfs held on the rather big jump at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Good news is look how the Gfs gets snow to our north. Where is Shunt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 CMC is similar to the RGEM. Not quite as wet but gets precip west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 534 h5 contour backed a little further nw. Thats one of the gauges for how far west the shield can get. The upper levels say the gfs could have easily pushed further. That wasn't the reason for trimming the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Good news is look how the Gfs gets snow to our north. Where is Shunt? I see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The GEM looks like a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS says there should be blizzard warnings for the shore winds 37-45knts at the surface. Interesting to see if akq pulls the trigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snowman. said: CMC is similar to the RGEM. Not quite as wet but gets precip west of 95. Precip shield is certainly farther West by maybe 10 miles, but the heavier precip doesn't get farther West, which really isn't a worry atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 534 h5 contour backed a little further nw. Thats one of the gauges for how far west the shield can get. The upper levels say the gfs could have easily pushed further. That wasn't the reason for trimming the edge. It's just noise probably, which is why the GFS basically held place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ltrain said: The GEM looks like a couple inches. 3+" for you, 2-3" for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This is for leesburg. Im worried about him after the gfs. Ji still thinks this is a disaster though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 3+" for you, 2-3" for me Looks like 2-3 for me as well... 2" line is just west of I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Good news is look how the Gfs gets snow to our north. Where is Shunt? I’ll take that and run, but feel bad for people...well...mostly in Leesburg. Eta: Just playing. Pulling for everyone obviously. We all need this win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'd be thrilled with 2" of snow followed by 35mph gusts. Lock up the cmc and hug the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Good news is look how the Gfs gets snow to our north. Where is Shunt? Yep. My biggest takeaway is that NE Pa gets a little loving so there is potential for this to come north...which would help all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, jrmintz24 said: . Yep. Totally agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrmintz24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yep. Totally agreeLol! Back to more lurking and less butt-posting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Cmc also backed up the 534 contour from its previous run. The upper level changes right now sure seem like it wants to snow in the corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Cmc also backed up the 534 contour from its previous run. The upper level changes right now sure seem like it wants to snow in the corridor. All good news. 0z has been very generous for us so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.