yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yoda, please translate the pencil and crayon scribbles into inches. k thanks 10mm line reaches DCA and east... which is about 0.4" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Oh hai der 00z RGEM at 36 hours It wouldn’t be a storm in the MA if not for those awful B&W preschooler maps. I can’t even pretend to decipher that besides a lot of tightly wound isobars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yoda, please translate the pencil and crayon scribbles into inches. k thanks The way he described it, it's either really good, or really bad. I kinda don't want to know which one is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I remember a storm in 1998 or 1999 that was calling for little accumulation all day and the Fox 5 10:00 news came on and the totals jumped way up to 8+ bc the Low hugged closer to the coast at the last minute. Point being—powerful Low pressure in Hatteras near the coast can be unpredictable until 6-12 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yoda, please translate the pencil and crayon scribbles into inches. k thanks It's the answer to our prayers. That's all you need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: The way he described it, it's either really good, or really bad. I kinda don't want to know which one is right. Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Hurricanegiants said: I remember a storm in 1998 or 1999 that was calling for little accumulation all day and the Fox 5 10:00 news came on and the totals jumped way up to 8+ bc the Low hugged closer to the coast at the last minute. Point being—powerful Low pressure in Hatteras near the coast can be unpredictable until 6-12 hours out Wasn't that Jan 25, 2000, or is this another storm I'm not hearing of. Jan 25 matches that description. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: The NAM with three versions to choose from is a weenies dream. I’m still out. No. The 3 km and 12 km are different versions. The 32 km is the 12 km version interpolated to a coarser output grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Wasn't that Jan 25, 2000, or is this another storm I'm not hearing of. Jan 25 matches that description. Yes but Wes showed us this is not that storm. But it’s getting a little fun now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 10mm line reaches DCA and east... which is about 0.4" QPF oooh, now we're talking. All 3 mesos jumped at the same time. RGEM has been too generous with QPF lately but with .4 we have some wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Lookingcat the 700mb rh map on the rgem, there's more after 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 @Yoda, is that at 1039 block on the RGEM H5 map?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: oooh, now we're talking. All 3 mesos jumped at the same time. RGEM has been too generous with QPF lately but with .4 we have some wiggle room. Can’t hate that. Even with overdone RGEM QPF lately, cut it by a quarter and I’d still be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's the answer to our prayers. That's all you need to know. I just don't have the patience to look at those maps. Way too much scribble scrabble for me. That could make me go ADHD!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html much better than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Lookingcat the 700mb rh map on the rgem, there's more after 36 hrs Oh, that was only through 36 hours? Oh man we need high res maps now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Start at hr 24 and go to 36 (still going) Also, change the date from 1/2/18 18z to 1/3/18 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM 12km doesn't like NJ or Philly. Storm does an odd hook from NC to Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM looks like the biggest hit on the 12z euro ens with pushing precip all the way to HGR. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Amped said: NAM 12km doesn't like NJ or Philly. Storm does an odd hook from NC to Cape Cod. We moved past that. The RGEM is the new face of weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It's going to be a kicker. That's almost certain. We just need it to be lazy and slow about it. And hope the nam tracks are correct.I always respect your knowledge and our discussions here but I respectfully disagree. This feature that a few are touting as a 'kicker' is amplifying or digging S or just East of South. At 33 hours is the critical frame on the nam. If we are looking at the same feature, that energy amplifying in the OV is damn close to pinching off. There is no mechanism forcing this East to kick. The only thing I see is convective flareup well east of lp popping up around the same time as this 'kick' east. If that feature continue to trend towards more amplification or even closing off the theory of this being a kicker is debunked as the flow will back and the system will stay tucked if not become fully captured. Im not saying this will happen just making my opinion on this 'kicker'. There are so many dynamics going on with this that we could be seeing a rare system where guidance still doesnt have a complete handle even while the storm is upon us. You may also be right and the ov energy moves E and bumps our storm well east but I find it hard to believe a 2ndary amplifying sw in the OV trof is going to jist nudge a sub 960 low off to the NE like that. Best convection should be farther W where strong fetch off warm gulf stream clashes with sjb freezing mid atl 2m temps and rock solid frozen ground. Huge thermal gradient along coast will have bigger influence on storm than many are giving credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: RGEM looks like the biggest hit on the 12z euro ens with pushing precip all the way to HGR. heh. 6"+ nased on what I've seen. Yoda, link to 48 hr black and white please! !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: 6"+ nased on what I've seen. Yoda, link to 48 hr black and white please! !!! It's running on TT now but it will be a bit before the good panels are out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6"+ nased on what I've seen. Yoda, link to 48 hr black and white please! !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: RGEM looks like the biggest hit on the 12z euro ens with pushing precip all the way to HGR. heh. Several hours of atleast light snow all the way back to Hagerstown. Wow. Hopefully the globals continue the trends. Didn't the 0z models have recon data ingested? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Thanks. Found it by googling. Anyway, another 2mm or so falls after 36 hours, so 11-12 mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think 3-4” is safe call for RIC and DC. Pretty sure the GFS will get folks little excited later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Rvarookie said: I think 3-4” is safe call for RIC and DC. Pretty sure the GFS will get folks little excited later We've still got 24 hours of guidance until we can make that answer. Could be a blip, but the trends are still very exciting, so I'm hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Westendsnowguy said: Add another inch since that map stops at 36 hrs. Pleeez Lord!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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